- An Independent Perspective on the Intensified Canada-US Trade War
Abstract:
Several things have happened at the same time. The Trump administration has
begun to levy 25% tariffs on imports from Canada on and off; despite the
present complicated and changing environment, Bank of Canada has decided to
lower the interest rate again; the Liberal Party has chosen a new leader, Mark
Carney, with a brilliant educational and career background. The Federal
election of Canada is scheduled to happen in late April 2025. There are
actually three policy pillars for the
present Trump administration: 1) Reduction of government expenditures will
reduce the federal government deficit from 7% of GDP to 3% by 2028; 2)
Government deregulation on banking and business activities will inject more
energy into small and medium-sized businesses; 3) The tariffs on foreign goods
will penalize those businesses who still remain on the foreign land and get
them to return their manufacturing business so as to revitalize the domestic
economy and reduce the cost of living. Faced with tariffs imposed by U.S.
President Donald Trump, some countries have, so far, responded by turning the
other cheek, and not retaliating with their own duties. The Canadian economy
may be better off helped by removing interprovincial trade barriers and
untangling the red tape hampering some of Canada's trade agreements with other
countries. Even with retaliation, federal officials have the experience to
tariff imports like liquor that can be replaced by Canadian producers. For
example, it would be a really bad idea to slap tariffs on U.S. imports that
Canada really relies on, like pharmaceuticals. Canada needs to wake up from its
reliance on the US before it is bound with arms tied behind the back as Canada
has got fewer and fewer friends from some of the important countries like
China, India, Saudi Arabia and so on. Canada is presently a resource-based
economy with its strengths on oil and gas. Therefore, Canada should subsidize
the oil and gas industry to be able to take off to a higher altitude, instead
of taxing the resource industries and rewarding the green industries. Canada
should also learn from the US and divert from high government expenditures,
high deficits and high regard for environmental protection. Currency
devaluation and interest rate decrease can be considered ways to cushion the
tariffs effects. However, the Chinese experience has told us devaluation won't
have a lasting improvement on the trade balance, and it has had little impact
on the dollar price for Chinese exporters. According to US government data, 17%
of US exports go to Canada. More than 75% of Canada's exports go to the US.
Canada stands to suffer a larger economic blow in any trade war with the US.
Now it is a critical moment for the Canadian economic future as well as its
unity as a country. With all the theories and cases discussed above, Canada
should take the third option as put by Mitchell Sharp in the 1970’s, avoid
direct conflict with the Trump administration, delay the tariffs as long and as
much as possible, solve its internal problems, redirect its oil and gas to the
European market, its agricultural and lumber products to the Asian market and
buy from both Europe and Asia what it used to buy from the US. In this way, the
harm in tariffs will be reduced to the greatest extent and the Canadian economy
will also be restructured successfully.
Key Words:
Canada-US Trade, Tariffs, Retaliate, Devaluation, Diversification
This era is an era of information explosion. While one
is able to obtain much more information, one needs to identify genuine
information, sort it out and abstract the useful part. Several things have
happened at the same time. The Trump administration has begun to levy 25% tariffs
on imports from Canada on and off; despite the present complicated and changing
environment, Bank of Canada has decided to lower the interest rate again; the
Liberal Party has chosen a new leader, Mark Carney, with a brilliant
educational and career background, yet endorsed by Justin Trudeau.
Canada continues to hit back in the trade war with its
neighbour to the south. But it also raises the question of whether Canada
absorbing the blows from U.S. tariffs, while painful, might be preferable to
the overall economic damage from a full-scale trade conflict. Faced with
tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, some countries have, so far,
responded by turning the other cheek, and not retaliating with their own
duties. Pau S. Pujolas, an associate professor or economics at McMaster
University, says he believes Canada doesn't need to spend its time
"fighting tariff with tariff." He says the economy would be better
helped by removing interprovincial trade barriers and untangling the red tape
hampering some of Canada's trade agreements with other countries. He continued,
“let the Americans shoot themselves in the foot, let them destroy their firms …
that rely on Canadian products, let them destroy all that. And let's move
on." Professor Antweiler of UBC said, "we're looking at sectors where
we have easy domestic substitutes, or third country substitutes." He
emphasizes that it is all really focused on harm reduction. As mentioned by
another expert, even with retaliation, federal officials have the experience to
tariff imports like liquor that can be replaced by Canadian producers. For
example, it would be a really bad idea to slap tariffs on U.S. imports that
Canada really relies on, like pharmaceuticals[1]. Canada needs to wake up
from its reliance on the US[2] before it is bound with
arms tied behind the back as Canada has got fewer and fewer friends from some
of the important countries like China, India, Saudi Arabia and so on.
My Asian friend would like to cite the famous
seven-step poem by Zhi Cao in the warring state period of China (220-280 AD),
and the poem reads: a kettle had beans inside, and stalks of the beans made a
fire; when the beans to the brother-stalks cried, “we sprang from one root, why
such fire?”[3] Many countries are
panicked with Trump’s tariffs, yet they do not know how to cope with them. The
writer will here give a detailed analysis of the situation, the problems, the
reasons, some alternative measures and recommend an adoptable solution.
I.
Examples of Basic Logic and Sketch of
Canada
Many people in Saskatchewan like fishing, and the
lakes will tend to be frequented in the summer. While one is occupied in
fishing, some people may disturb the fish with their voices or action, what is
he expected to do? When one is in a soccer game, he will often be tackled, what
will he do in such situations? When one plays chess with others, one person has
violated against the rules, will he follow suit, try to sort it out using a
judge, or quit from the game?
A story may reveal the whole situation. Village A is
rich with freedom and democracy, and Village B is poor with a little authentic
governance structure but many hard-working villagers. A talented baker opened a
bakery in Village A, and his cakes and bread were very popular. When the bakery
has too much bakery to sell, it wanted to sell it in Village B. The chief of
Village B would not let it unless the bakery had a branch at Village B and
unless that the bakery sold to Village B is a just a small portion of their
production. So the bakery did open a branch there, and it turned out it was
even more successful than the original one. This happened with other stores
also when many businesses went to Village B to open branches. Gradually those
businesses in Village A became deserted, and Village B began to levy tariffs on
products and services from Village A so that the business in Village A will be
protected. When the Chief and seniors of Village B heard about it, they were so
angry that they also levied tariffs back to products and services from Village
A. The result is both villages have higher prices, and production is not as
easy as before. The tariffs seem not working except for that everything is
pricier and that production and consumption are deterred. The author thinks the
tariff works better if it is for a structural adjustment. For example, a tariff
on oil and gas from the US will protect the oil and gas industry in Canada so
that Canadian oil and gas is more competitive in the US.
Canada is presently a resource-based economy with its
strengths on oil and gas. While it aims at developing the data and AI
technology, it has a long way to go. Therefore, Canada should subsidize the oil
and gas industry to be able to take off to a higher altitude. However, the
Liberal Party’s leader would like to continue the path of Justin Trudeau and
tax the resource industries[4] and reward the green
industries, which is against Canadian economic nature. Moreover, Canada is on a
high-speed train in a wrong track with high government expenditures, high
deficits and high regard for environmental protection, which the US is now
trying to divert from lead by President Trump.
In the past the Liberals have blocked resource
projects, raised taxes, driving many jobs south into the hands of the
Americans. A half a trillion dollars of investment has fled Canada. They have
also blocked a pipeline that would have allowed Canada to go around the
American market, and they’ve killed LNG liquefaction plants, forcing Canada to
sell all of our natural gas to the Americans at huge price discounts. If we
want a leader to stand up to Trump and grow the economy, it is evident that the
net-zero policy should be given up.
As a matter of fact, the premier of Alberta Danielle
Smith says that there would be a referendum for all Albertans if the Federal
government cannot move on 9 issues like dropping the emission cap, giving up
the net-zero policy, stopping the unfair transfer system and so on in 6 months[5].
II.
Principles of International Trade
I a primitive society, people barter. Later the
currency is discovered and used in the exchange. Further later, people have
found that they don’t have to produce all the products they need, and that is
when division of labor is created. However, the most important are comparative
advantage and economy of scale in international trade. With comparative
advantage, both countries will fare better if each focuses on one product that
it has comparative advantage. With economy of scale, both reduction in cost and
efficiency will be achieved. Therefore, it is not if you want to opt out of
international trade, but it is whether you want to take advantage of the two advantages.
III.
Present Trade War Situation
As the case is very complicated, the writer will use a
chart to illustrate the present trade war situation.
Imposed by |
Imposed on |
Date |
Type of tariff |
Amount |
Status |
|
USA |
Canada |
04-Mar |
All goods imported from Canada
(Excl. energy) |
25% |
||
USA |
Canada |
04-Mar |
Energy products |
10% |
||
Canada |
USA |
04-Mar |
Retaliatory (1) on $30-billion
worth of U.S. goods |
25% |
||
USA |
Canada |
06-Mar |
Non-CUSMA goods (Excl. energy,
potash) |
25% |
||
USA |
Canada |
06-Mar |
Energy products not covered by
CUSMA |
10% |
||
USA |
Canada |
06-Mar |
Potash products not covered by
CUSMA |
10% |
||
Canada |
USA |
10-Mar |
Surtax on electricity exported
from Ontario to U.S. states |
25% |
||
USA |
Canada |
12-Mar |
Steel and aluminum |
25% |
||
Canada |
USA |
13-Mar |
Retaliatory (2) on $29.8-billion
worth of goods |
25% |
||
China |
Canada |
20-Mar |
Retaliatory tariffs on canola oil,
canola meal and pea products |
100% |
Pending |
|
China |
Canada |
20-Mar |
Retaliatory tariffs on seafood and
pork |
25% |
Pending |
|
USA |
Canada |
02-Apr |
Reciprocal to address all Canadian
tariffs, taxes and non-tariff barriers on the U.S. |
TBD |
Pending |
|
Canada |
USA |
02-Apr |
Retaliatory (3) on an additional $95-billion
worth of U.S. goods |
TBD |
Pending |
|
Source: Jane Switzer: Tariff
tracker: Confused by the trade war? Here's where things stand today,
Financial Post, 14 Mar 2025, with the link https://financialpost.com/news/economy/tariff-tracker-u-s-canada-trade-war-updates.
|
||||||
The bilateral trade relationship
between the United States and Canada is one of the world's largest. In the
first nine months of 2024, Canadian government data estimated that CA$800
billion (US$550 billion) of goods crossed the Canada–U.S. border. The
countries' energy and automotive markets are both highly integrated, and Canada
is the U.S.'s largest supplier of steel. As of November 2024, the U.S. government
estimated the United States' trade deficit with Canada to be US$55 billion.
This deficit is largely driven by American demand for Canadian oil; when oil
exports are excluded, the U.S. has a trade surplus with Canada. Roughly 60
percent of oil imported by the U.S. is sourced from Canada, and Canada is the
largest supplier of U.S. energy imports and second-largest recipient of U.S.
energy exports. The increased value of U.S. imports from Canada is partially a
result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which created global market
instability and raised energy prices. Trump said the tariffs are intended to
reduce the U.S.'s trade deficit with Canada and force Canada to secure their
borders with the U.S. against illegal immigration and the illegal smuggling of
fentanyl analogues. Trudeau and Sheinbaum of Mexico called the U.S. tariffs
unjustified. Trudeau suggested that Trump intends to use tariffs to force
Canadian annexation into the United States; Trump has explicitly confirmed this
point several times. Both Canada and Mexico said that U.S. tariffs violate the
USMCA, a free trade agreement ratified by the three countries in 2020 during
Trump's first presidency. Economists have said the tariffs would likely disrupt
trade between the three countries, upending supply chains and increasing
consumer prices across North America[6].
IV.
Problems
Caused
Many
economists have expressed skepticism over the effectiveness of Trump's strategy
in imposing tariffs, and many have said that increased tariffs would raise the
prices of consumer goods in the U.S. and worsen the country's cost-of-living
crisis. The Budget Lab at Yale University estimated that the tariffs would lead
to a loss of about US$1,200 in purchasing power for the typical American
household[7]. Because the United States
does not produce enough oil to satisfy its demand, 10 percent tariffs on
Canadian oil and energy will likely lead to an increased oil price across the
United States. This is especially true in the Midwest, a region heavily reliant
on oil imported from Alberta. The Canadian government had previously said that
U.S. gas prices could increase by US$0.75 per gallon overnight if tariffs were
imposed. Tariffs could also increase the cost of electricity in some U.S.
states, especially those that rely on Canadian provinces like Ontario, Quebec,
and British Columbia for energy[8]. Reported on February 11,
2025, in the Wall Street Journal ---“The real goal of US steel and aluminum
companies in 2018 wanting tariffs was to boost their bottom lines --- allowing
them to charge more. A sample outcome --- General Motors profits dented by a
billion dollars equal to the pay of more than 10,000 employees”[9]. In February following
Trump's initial announcement, Canadian travel to the United States dropped by
40 percent compared to February 2024[10]. One prediction is that
the shift in Canadian travel away from the US could amount to a loss of $4
billion for the US economy[11].
The
Canadian economy could enter a recession within six months if the tariffs are
maintained[12].
According to the Conference Board of Canada, in the second quarter, GDP is
expected to be down 1.3 per cent, driven by weaker consumption and lower
exports, and inflation is to increase by 0.7 points above the baseline in the
quarter[13]. Quebec premier Legault
said that the U.S. tariffs could cause the loss of as many as 100,000 Canadian
jobs within the province[14]. Over the whole country,
unemployment rate will spike to 6.9 per cent (please see Note 8). Prices could
also increase in Canada for even domestically produced products, especially if
the tariffs cause economic difficulties for smaller businesses, due to the
spill-over effect and the rational expectations.
There
may also be a considerable change in population. While many Canadians want to
strip Elon Musk of his Canadian citizenship[15], China is trying to win
him over as a Chinese resident or citizen. While many Canadians want to fight
against the US, and start boycotting on American goods, some other Canadians
may want to vote for leaving Canada by their feet. What is worse, in March
2025, the Trump administration announced that beginning on April 11, 2025,
Canadians who enter the US for a visit of more than 30 days will need to be
fingerprinted and registered[16].
In
the United States, Trump's initial decision to impose tariffs on Canada and
Mexico was criticized by the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal, which
said that his "justification for this economic assault on the neighbors
makes no sense" and that Trump had begun "the dumbest trade war in
history"[17].
The Economist described Trump's tariffs as aggressive and erratic, and said
that they would "cause lasting damage at home and abroad"[18]. Actually, Trump's
imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico violated both the USMCA and the
rules of the World Trade Organization, of which all three countries are members[19].
In a
word, this will be a lose-lose result, which is bad for everyone.
V.
Case
Analysis
When
we take a look at a similar tariff case between China and the US about 7 years
ago[20], we may gain some
insights of what we may experience today.
Amiti
et al. (2019) discuss the short-term macroeconomic impact of U.S. tariff
increases since January 2018 through September 2018, noting that the tariff
increases have led to increases in the prices of the products in question
ranging from about 10% to 30%, and that because the elasticity of world real
prices with respect to U.S. tariffs is near zero, the U.S. has not been able to
lower world prices through tariffs in order to make the U.S. share the impact
of tariffs with other countries. Because the elasticity of world prices to U.S.
tariff increases is close to zero, the United States has not been able to
reduce world prices by imposing tariffs in a way that would allow other
countries to share in the impact of the tariffs. Most of these tariffs are borne
by U.S. consumers and importers. U.S. consumers experience a $1.4 billion
monthly decline in real income as a result of the tariffs, while the U.S.
government is the beneficiary of the tariffs. At the same time, the tariffs
have led to a contraction in U.S. demand and a trade diversion effect, with an
estimated $165 billion in trade diverted annually as a result of the tariffs. Fajgelbaum
et al. (2020) also conclude that tariffs not only reduce U.S. aggregate welfare
in aggregate, but they also have a large impact on the distribution of wealth
within the United States. In particular, U.S. consumers and importers bear the
brunt of the tariffs, with the price transmission effect of tariffs reducing
their welfare by $51 billion, while the government's total revenue level rises,
with tariffs boosting government revenue by $34.3 billion.14 The study also
concludes that if China adopts a tariff countermeasure, it will have a
significant impact on the distribution of wealth in the United States. Further,
the U.S. net welfare loss is higher if China takes tariff countermeasures than
if China does not.
Hanson
(2020) examines the structure of U.S.-China trade and concludes that tariffs do
not contribute to the growth of manufacturing employment in the U.S. After estimating
the tariff burden, Handley et al. (2020) note that the implicit tariff burden
per U.S. worker is $900, with the burden on manufacturing workers being as high
as $1,600 per person.
Lianbiao
Cui et al. (2018) used a multiregional CGE model to simulate the trade
diversion effect of trade friction between China and the United States, and the
results show that direct trade between China and the United States will be
reduced significantly, but indirect trade will increase significantly. U.S.
trade sanctions cannot effectively solve its trade imbalance problem, and the
shrinking of the U.S. trade deficit with China will be replaced by other
countries. Research by scholars such as IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath
points out that higher bilateral tariffs will not reduce the overall trade
imbalance because their main effect is to shift trade to other countries.
Instead, higher bilateral tariffs could undermine the economies of China and
the United States and global growth prospects by weakening business confidence
and investment and disrupting global supply chains, while raising costs for
producers and consumers (Adler et al., 2019).Handley et al. (2020) studied that
the increase in tariffs on U.S. imports from 2018 to 2019 significantly
dampened U.S. export growth, with nearly a quarter of U.S. exporters' imports
affected by the added tariffs and the affected firms accounting for more than
80 percent of total U.S. exports.
Under
China's countermeasures, U.S. exports of rubber and plastic products, non-metallic
minerals, metals, and electrical equipment fell even more than in China. If we
further consider the dual impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership Agreement (RCEP) and China's tariff countermeasures, the decline in
U.S. exports in various industries is significantly larger. In the energy
sector, Jie Ma and Yue Yuan (2020) argue that the U.S.-China trade friction may
lead to the U.S. will lose China as the most important energy consumption
market, and the impact of natural gas and solar energy industries is more
significant relative to the traditional oil industry.
Using
the COMTRADE and TRAINS databases with the WITS-SMART model, Lv Yue et al.
(2019), based on the two lists of tariff implementations published by China and
the United States in 2018, in April and June, found that although China's list
of tax increases hit the targeted U.S. industries to a greater extent, China
suffered a greater overall welfare loss of about 2.6 times that of the United
States.
The
U.S.-China trade imbalance and the loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs are
structural, and tariffs will not help resolve the U.S. current account
imbalance, nor will tariffs on Chinese imports help bring manufacturing jobs
back to the U.S. At the same time, mutual tariffs and the U.S.-China Phase I of
the EITC will have a spillover effect on other developed countries and emerging
markets, but the impact of this effect is highly uncertain. In the case of
China, the U.S.-China trade war is not only leading to a restructuring of trade
between the two countries, but is also reshaping trade ties between Japan and
its Asian partners, which is generally favorable to Japan's economic growth. At
the same time, the U.S.-China trade war is also conducive to further
strengthening trade and direct investment ties between China and Japan.
When
we looked back at the history in the US, we have found a starting tariff case –
the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act case[21].
Due
to the low market share of domestic businesses and a declining labor market,
Senator Reed Smoot and Congressman Wells C. Hawley sponsored a tariff bill in
late 1929 that was actually as high as 60%, signed into law by President
Herbert Hoover on June 17, 1930, which raised tariffs on more than 20,000
imported goods to the highest level in history. The tariffs set by the bill
were the second highest in U.S. history, just below the tariffs of 1828.
Following the passage of the bill, many countries took retaliatory tariff
measures against the United States, resulting in a 67 percent decrease in U.S.
imports and exports during the Great Depression. Economists and economic
historians agree that the passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was the
catalyst that led to the sharp decline in the size of trade between the United
States and Europe from an all-time high in 1929 to an all-time low in 1932, and
the beginning of the Great Depression. Prior to this, President Herbert Hoover
had asked Congress to lower tariff rates, but Congress did the opposite and
raised them. Although many economists urged President Hoover to veto the bill,
he signed it into law, in part because one of Hoover's many campaign promises
when he ran for president in 1928 included raising import tariffs on farm goods
to help distressed farmers.
James
TFG Wood and Ernest Patterson organized a petition signed by 1,028 U.S.
economists asking President Hoover to veto the bill. Automobile magnate Henry
Ford spent an entire evening at the White House trying to convince Hoover to
veto the bill, which he called “a stupid economic policy. J.P. Morgan's chief
executive Thomas W. Lamont described him as “on his knees begging Herbert
Hoover to veto the stupid Holly Smoot Tariff Act”.
In
1930, Canada was the first to impose new tariffs on 16 products, accounting for
30 percent of all U.S. exports to Canada. Canada then began to seek closer
economic ties with the British Commonwealth. France and Britain protested and
began to develop new trade channels. Germany focused on building a
self-sufficient economy. U.S. imports plummeted 66% from $4.4 billion in 1929
to $1.5 billion in 1933, while exports plummeted 61% from $5.4 billion to $2.1
billion, both drops exceeding the 50% drop in GDP over the same period. In
1930, when the Smoot-Hawley Act was passed, the U.S. unemployment rate was
7.8%, but by 1931, it had risen to 16.3% and was on its way up, reaching 24.9%
in 1932 and 25.1% in 1933. Also, it was said that the automobile industry decreased
by 95%, and Fascism was bred during this trade war. Between 1929 and 1934, the
size of world trade shrank by about 66%. Non-tariff barriers became
increasingly important in the reconstruction process after World War II. In
Japan, for example, the country's effective tariff rate was only 1.6% in 1951,
which made it necessary to set up non-tariff barriers to protect domestic
industries. in June 1952, Japan announced the “Basic Policy on Foreign
Investment in the Japanese Car Market”, which set a limit on the number of cars
that could be imported, and a licensing system for other industries, which led
to a significant increase in the number of cars imported after World War II. In
June 1952, Japan announced the “Basic Policy on Foreign Investment in the
Japanese Car Market”, which set limits on the import of cars and a licensing
system for other industries, making it impossible for the U.S. automobile and
television industries to enter the Japanese market for nearly two decades after
World War II.
VI.
Reasons
Explored
Why
has there been such a big battle? First, there is the issue of illegal
immigration and illegal smuggling of fentanyl, as emphasized by Trump. Trump's
tariffs initially targeted goods from China, Mexico and Canada. These accounted
for more than 40% of imports into the US in 2024.
But
Trump has accused the three countries of not doing enough to end the flow of
migrants and illegal drugs such as fentanyl into the US. All three countries
have rejected the accusations. Secondly, the trade deficits make Trump unhappy
(but mostly due to American heavy reliance on Canadian oil and gas from the
Canadian side), and he wants to reduce the gap that exists between how much the
US imports from and exports to individual countries. Thirdly, the tariffs are
also aimed at incentivizing manufacturers to move to the US to make their
products there instead of importing them from other countries. As proclaimed
from the White House, Apple announced a historic $500 billion investment, which
will create 20,000 new U.S.-based jobs. $500 billion private investment was
announced in artificial intelligence infrastructure — with major CEOs agreeing
it would not have been possible without President Trump’s leadership. TSMC
announced an unprecedented $100 billion investment in U.S.-based semiconductor
chip manufacturing[22]. Also, the crown prince of
Saudi Arabia affirmed the kingdom's intention to broaden its investments and
trade with the United States over the next four years, in the amount of $600
billion, and potentially beyond that[23]. Fourthly, those
businesses which aim to get around the bilateral tariffs by setting up
factories in Mexico or Canada will have to withdraw as the tariffs are
multi-sided. Fifthly, by levying tariffs multi-sided there will be a huge
fiscal income to be used at hand, and the burden on Treasury Notes will be much
less.
The
three forces of capital in the Trump administration share the same goal of
re-industrializing the United States; however, the focus of their respective
policy demands differs somewhat, with brick-and-mortar capital pushing for
sweeping tariffs, finance capital attempting to balance the contradiction
between lowering the dollar exchange rate and maintaining dollar hegemony, and
Silicon Valley tech capital focusing on asserting its own dominance of
artificial intelligence technology. The main policy drivers within the current
Trump administration are still Treasury Secretary Besant and Stephen Miran, the
chairman of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers. According to Stephen Miran,
the ultimate goal of Trump's economic policy is the reindustrialization of the
United States. But a key obstacle to U.S. reindustrialization is the high
exchange rate of the U.S. dollar (and the correspondingly low exchange rate of
the Chinese yuan), which has led to a lack of international competitiveness for
U.S. goods. In the concept of “Mar-a-Lago Accord” to maintain the hegemony of
the dollar, the United States and the world's major economies signed an
agreement requiring these economies to convert their U.S. treasury bonds into
ultra-long-term (100-year) non-tradable, non-interest-paying special bonds, and
then through the Federal Reserve's currency swap agreements with other central
banks to safeguard international dollar liquidity. This locks in the status of
the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency in the hands of central banks, while
reducing the demand for U.S. Treasuries in the financial markets. And U.S.
Treasuries are the most important dollar assets, central banks no longer need
to buy and hold ordinary U.S. Treasuries, and that is equivalent to a decline
in the demand for the dollar. The dollar exchange rate falls, the
competitiveness of U.S. products rises, plus tariff protection kicks in, thus the
United States of America re-industrialization is successfully reached, which is
perfect![24]
The
present US Finance Minister Scott Kenneth Homer Bessent has already discussed
the US dilemma caused by the huge government expenditures:
To
some extent, the original objective of the Trump administration may be actually
a good one as depicted from the pathways:
Countries
buy U.S. national bonds → debt released to residents based on US debt → residents
buy domestic goods
U.S.
tariffs → countries stimulate domestic demand → less
demand for U.S. Treasuries → volume of
U.S. Treasuries declines, interest on Treasuries decreases, U.S. foreign financial
dependence decreases; countries stimulate internal investment, residents buy
domestic goods
There are actually three policy pillars[25] for the present Trump
administration: 1) Reduction of government expenditures will reduce the federal
government deficit from 7% of GDP to 3% by 2028; 2) Government deregulation on
banking and business activities will inject more energy into small and
medium-sized businesses; 3) The tariffs on foreign goods will penalize those
businesses who still remain on the foreign land and get them to return their manufacturing
business so as to revitalize the domestic economy and reduce the cost of
living.
However, sometimes even people with a good will may
have done bad things with the bad strategies, let alone the good will may not
include sufficient considerations for the other countries.
VII. Policy
Alternatives
The author hereby uses
the approach of risk management analysis in project management. Below each
option is listed and analyzed briefly.
1. Accept
While a risk can be accepted, the acceptance may be
made proactively or passively. The proactive acceptance involves planning and
budgeting, resource preparation and allocation, and reserves for emergency use.
2. Reduce
This has been used a lot. First, a test will be done to see if there will be considerable effects. If not, ways will be sought to remove the threat or the plan for the project will be changed. If yes, ways will be sought to reduce the effect both in the degree and in the scale.
Possibility or Degree
Currency devaluation and interest rate decrease can be
considered ways to cushion the tariffs effects. However, when analyzing the
case of the Renminbi (Chinese Yuan) devaluation, Adler et al. (2019) argue that
while a country's currency depreciation can lead to expenditure switching,
expenditure switching is unlikely to lead to a lasting improvement in the trade
balance, and offsetting the impact of tariffs requires a sustained and
significant depreciation of the currency, which is difficult to achieve through
monetary policy alone. At the same time, data observations suggest that the
depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in China has had little impact on the
dollar price for Chinese exporters.
Scale
With overall tariffs, both Canada and the US will be
hurt hugely. “We know that the further we go down this road, the more pain both
economies will feel. It’s mutual assured destruction,” the former foreign
affairs minister Peter MacKay said[26]. Professor Trevor Tombe at
University of Calgary said that Canada had limited ability to actually affect
the U.S. economy[27].
When tariffs are discussed, there can be two kinds of
tariffs, targeted ones and dollar for dollar ones. Canada has already fought
one tariff "war" with Trump. During his first term, the US president
slapped 10% tariffs on Canadian aluminium products and 25% tariffs on Canadian
steel, citing national security concerns. Ottawa retaliated by imposing tariffs
on select goods, which were chosen to send a political message to Trump and his
allies. It put levies on Florida orange juice, and whiskey and bourbon from
Tennessee and Kentucky - the latter being the home of then-Republican Senate
Leader Mitch McConnell. Both countries ended up agreeing to lift the tariffs a
year later. According to US government data, 17% of US exports go to Canada.
More than 75% of Canada's exports go to the US. Canada stands to suffer a
larger economic blow in any trade war with the US and this stark imbalance is
why targeted tariffs are often the first and safest approach, said Peter Clark,
a lawyer who previously worked on trade policy issues in Canada's federal
finance department. Through targeting select goods, Canada can
hit the US without widely punishing its own citizens, as tariffs can
immediately raise prices for consumers at home. This approach is also why
officials are pushing a "Buy Canadian" campaign as a way to lessen
the impact of a potential retaliation[28].
Scott Moe, leader of the mineral-rich province of
Saskatchewan, has said that broad levies on US goods would "rip this
country apart". Mr Karaguesian said the promised US tariffs on Canadian
goods could plunge the country into a recession. If Canada responded with
dollar-for-dollar tariffs, it could lead to inflation, with stagflation the
combined result[29].
To a certain extent, the UK and Australia are not as
reliant on exports to the US as Canada. That is why Canada needs to wake up and
pull itself from this awkward situation as soon as possible if not immediately.
At the same time, Canada needs to delay the tariffs and get the rate of tariffs
reduced.
Canada also has a last resort. North-eastern US states
like Vermont, New York and Maine significantly rely on electricity sold to them
by neighbouring Canadian provinces. As threatened by Ford, ON could pull the circuit
breaker cut off electricity for the US.
3. Transfer:
Outsourcing or Insurance
This option applies more to businesses as it is hard
to outsource or insure the whole economy.
4. Avoid
Ways to remove the threat or change the plan would be avoidance.
1) Cooperate
One of the best options is surely to cooperate with
each other so as to remove the threat and achieve a win-win result. When two
parties become foes, usually a fight is entailed, and the probability that no
one gets hurt is quite low. Therefore, the best strategy is to subdue an army
without any fight, according to the Art of War of Sun Tsu. However, if we can
become friends, then as friends we will not hurt each other, but will benefit
each other, so that the welfare of both get increased.
This does not mean that Canada should be the 51st
state in the US as that will be a nightmare for the Trump administration.
First, if Canada is annexed to the US, as one of the largest state and as one
with free medical care and the average house price lower than the US (with
C$707,100 compared to C$745,015 (converted by multiplying US$521,500 by 1.4286,
the exchange rate on 30 Mar 2025, and please also note that the home price at
all other Canadian provinces except for ON and BC is about C$530,000)[30], many people from the
other states would flock into Canada, causing instability and shortage of
talents in some states of the US. Secondly, as Canadians tend to be more
democratic (even for some Conservative Canadians) than the Americans, the Trump
administration would see a blue state joining in with 13 electoral votes probably
lost from Mr. Trump.
However, it might be a good idea for the US to join in
the Commonwealth. Recently Mr. Trump responded to the idea on Truth Social,
writing: "I Love King Charles. Sounds good to me!" While it is a
voluntary association of countries which is predominantly focused on
encouraging cooperation, trade and shared values, the Trump administration
needs to stop making healthcare harder to access and getting thousands of
people into poverty in the global south, and the other member countries need to
agree[31].
2) Find
Substitutes
When we cannot cooperate, we can still avoid the fight
by turning to the others for business. Some argue, given the economic costs of
retaliation, that Canada should instead focus on diversifying its global trade
relationships and increasing domestic production and coordination. "We're
a natural resource superpower," Mr Karaguesia (an economics lecturer at
McGill University in Montreal and a former finance counsellor at the Canadian
embassy in Washington DC) said, adding that the country could use the tariffs
as a push to harness that potential and sell its products elsewhere.[32]
There is a recent business case that can be borrowed
to show how a political risk is handled by a business. In this case, the
business wants to remove the risk by realizing the sale. It may not be
successful at the end, but it serves as something we can bear in mind when we
take actions. In a surprising move, Ka-Shing Li, once the richest man in Asia,
has announced the sale of 43 global ports, including critical locations such as
the Panama Canal ports of Cristobal and Balboa. This decision comes as his
company, CK Hutchison (note that A Hutchison subsidiary has operated ports at
both ends of the Panama Canal since 1997) plans to sell its overseas port
operations to BlackRock for $22.8 billion, expected to yield around $19 billion
in cash for Li. The Panama Canal is often referred to as a "golden
waterway," and controlling these ports means significant influence over
maritime trade routes. Many experts believe this move stems from geopolitical
risks, especially in light of rising tensions and scrutiny from the U.S.
government towards foreign control over American infrastructure. Following
Donald Trump's return to the political arena, there have been concerns
regarding potential U.S. military or economic interventions in the Panama Canal,
in addition to potential audits and contract terminations from the Panama side[33]. Trump previously
demanded the fees charged on US naval and merchant ships be lowered, or else
Panama should return the canal to the US. A commentary published on Ta Kung Pao
raised the question, “why were so many important ports transferred to ill-intentioned
US forces so easily? What kind of political calculations are hidden in the
so-called commercial behavior on the surface?”[34] After a series of
articles went published attacking Li’s action, his shares plumped about 18% in
11 days.
While this may be an information-based commercial
decision, this deal is becoming a battle in the trade war arena. Chinese
companies could have bought Li’s ports, yet taking both country risks and
business risks. Li’s companies recently have the pressure to report detailed
sensitive facility information to NATO. Though Li’s port capacity accounts for
5.86% of the world, Li is very alert on the global investment environment. As a
matter of fact, his shares of stock increased in value of $53.47 billion (calculated
by multiplying the difference of the values between Mar 4 and Mar 7 and the
exchange rate 7.78), which is almost triple the amount of the deal[35]. Also, the profit from
those 43 ports account for just 1% of the total profit of Li’s port business. From
2005 to 2023, global trade in digitally delivered services expanded at a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2%, outpacing the growth of goods trade
exports by 4.6% and overall services exports by 6.2%. Over this period, the
value of digitally delivered services increased from $1.0 trillion to $4.3
trillion. Digitally delivered services trade includes services exchanged via
computer networks, such as the Internet, apps, emails, voice and video calls,
and digital intermediation platforms. Advanced economies dominated the sector
in 2023, accounting for more than 80% of the total trade in digitally delivered
services[36]. Nevertheless, in
February, the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which was tasked with
investigating the issue, proposed a $1.5 million (€1.42 million) fee[37] for any Chinese-made ship
docking at a US port. The fee is justified, USTR said, to counteract what it
sees as unfair advantages gained by China in shipbuilding that "burden or
restrict US commerce." Therefore, this could be a big game play between
the US and China, with Ka-Shing Li sandwiched in the middle. However, even if
the deal was approved and carried out, the Chinese ships could still get around
those ports with their strong high-capacity modernized ships.
The author has compiled a welfare matrix to reflect
the welfare reached using each of the four strategies: cooperate, one side
attack while the other side avoids, one side avoids while the other side
attacks, and fight with each other. One can easily see that cooperation is the
best solution as both parties win, while fighting is the worst solution as both
parties lose.
|
Cooperate |
Attack & Avoid |
Avoid & Attack |
Fight |
Party
A |
1 |
Uncertain |
0 |
-1 |
Party
B |
1 |
0 |
Uncertain |
-1 |
VIII. Adoptable
Measures
1. Avoid the Fight
As mentioned above, the best strategy is to put down
the weapons and cooperate with each other. While this can be difficult, some
talented professional people can be utilized to negotiate in trade talks to win
the best possible result. If not, every means should be tried to delay the
full-scale tariff war. In the meantime, preparation needs to be made to clear
up the obstacles for trade and investment, and constructive communication with
other trading partners needs to be underway.
2. Solve the Internal Problems
1) Political Correctness and Online Censorship
Trudeau's Liberals were widely viewed as being
primarily focused on things like inequality, wealth redistribution, social
programs, climate change and reconciliation. Nevertheless, in his campaign
launch in January 2025, Carney voiced the concern that the Trudeau government
had let its "attention wander from the economy too often." A new
focus on classic economic concerns might also align with the most immediate
threat to the country: Donald Trump's trade policies[38].
The Chinese government was accused of interfering the
Federal government election in 2021, and the MP Han Dong was said to be
involved. However, after 4 years of questioning more than 40 people, no
specific evidence was found[39].
As a matter of matter, the present Canadian government
was almost the opposite in everything to the US one, advocating high government
expenditures, a zero-emission environment, and promoting democracy in Asia,
while Mr. Trump is trying to cut on government expenditures, get away with the
Paris Accord and win favor from Russia and China.
Online interference was established with the 2023
passing of Bill C-11, the Online Streaming Act, which placed digital streamers
under the ambit of the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications
Commission (CRTC). The act gave the CRTC the government’s blessing to impose
Canadian content requirements on streaming giants, as well as some form of
diversity requirements — similar to the ones imposed upon the CBC not too long
ago. It also permitted the CRTC to take a cut of their Canadian revenues. Despite
the many objections they faced, the Liberals fast-tracked the bill through Parliament.
Now, not only is the government preparing to tell streaming companies what to
produce and how to spend their budgets, it’s also making these services more
expensive[40].
However, silencing one’s opponents by crying hate just isn’t going to work as
effectively as before anymore.
2) Safety and Social Problems
With the overflow of refugees and temporary residents,
housing has become an issue, and so has safety and social security. Also, with
legalized marijuana in production and sales and more lenient rules on fentanyl,
there tends to be more drug abuses and thefts and robberies.
3) Business Monopoly and Oligopoly
In Canada, both monopolies (where a single company
dominates an industry) and oligopolies (where a few companies control a market)
are prevalent, particularly in sectors like banking, telecommunications, and
airlines, limiting consumer choice and potentially impacting prices and
innovation. Also, oligopolies such as supermarket chains, oil firms, steel
mills, and railroads have been all popular in the past. The country’s grocery
sector is ruled by the big three: Loblaw Companies Ltd., Metro Inc. and Empire
Company Ltd. These companies also own subsidiaries. Loblaw is the parent
company of No Frills, while Sobeys and FreshCo are under the Empire banner. The
Competition Bureau, Canada’s competition watchdog, confirmed that grocery
prices are spiking at the fastest rate in four decades. According to the
Canadian Wireless Telecommunications Association, Rogers is the largest
cellphone service provider in the country, followed by Bell and Telus. Much
like the grocery chains, these companies own a bevy of sub-brands: Koodo and
Public Mobile are Telus offshoots, Bell has Virgin Plus and Lucky, while Fido
and Chatr are under the Rogers banner. This relationship created an uncomfortable
result in July 2021 with the Rogers outage that affected millions of Canadians’
cellphone and internet service. However, Rogers still took over Shaw
Communications Inc. in July 2023.
One of the Competition Act’s most controversial
features is the “efficiency defence,” which pertains to merger laws. If the
efficiencies (cost-savings) of a proposed merger outweigh (captures what can be
quantified) and offset the anticompetitive effects, the merger is allowed even
if it’s been found to be anti-competitive by the Competition Tribunal. “If you
look at who loses and who wins it often tracks with who has the most economic
power,” says Jennifer Quaid, associate professor and vice-dean research at
University of Ottawa’s Faculty of Law. “Those who benefit tend to be those who
are already well-off or in a position to protect their interests.” [41]
The consequences of consolidation are very direct and
visceral, higher prices, a lack of choices, and less responsive to consumer
feedback, which can really wear down on people. Also, start-ups and small
businesses don’t find the environment very appealing. According to the author,
the role and functions as well as the enforcement protocol of the Competition
Act need to be strengthened. While natural monopolies and oligopolies can
benefit the public with their scale of economy and contribution to employment,
administrative monopolies and oligopolies should be monitored and restrained.
Also, the role of paralegals and notaries and
pharmacists can be enlarged to help the public and benefit the economy.
4) Declining Manufacturing Industry
Newly released data reveals that manufacturing
productivity contracted at an annualized rate of 1.5% in Q3 2024—the third
consecutive quarterly decline and the ninth drop in the past ten quarters.
According to the IBISWorld database, Coal Mining in Canada decreased by 13.3%
and Steel Rolling & Drawing in Canada decreased by 11.2% in 2024[42]. The decline of Canada's
manufacturing base may provide insight into the country's worsening
productivity trends.
The manufacturing industry needs to be remodelled to
deal with the new challenges of global trade war and sustainable development.
Career training and infrastructure update need to be emphasized in auto plants
in Oshawa of Ontario, and a stable policy environment and a diversified
sustainable economic development need to be emphasized in Edmonton of Alberta
and southwestern Saskatchewan.
5) Swollen Government, Bureaucracy and Low Efficiency
Total health expenditures in Canada are projected to
reach $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian. Total health expenditures increased
by 1.7% in 2022 and 4.5% in 2023, and are expected to rise 5.7% in 2024. At
least 15,000 Canadians died while waiting for surgery or a diagnostic scan over
the course of a year since 2018, according to government data collected by
public policy think tank SecondStreet.org. The true figure for the fiscal year
2023-24 is likely nearly double owing to a “huge hole” in the data, said
SecondStreet president Colin Craig[43].
The average pension for a normal person is $1000-2000
per month, but the average new federal pension per month last year was more
than $2900. Moreover, a federal employee retiring with an average pensions at
age 55 will collect close to $1 million in lifetime pensions[44].
According to Professor Jiawei Zhang's new blog[45], in 2015, the federal
government employed 263,000 people; and at the end of 2024, it employed over
350,000 people, at a growth rate of more than 30%.The size of the federal
spending budget before Trudeau came to power was $290 billion in 2015; it
reached $600 billion during the epidemic; and after the epidemic, it is still
close to $500 billion, at an increase of 70%. However, the gap between the
standard of living of the average Canadian family compared to the U.S. declined
dramatically overall from 2015-2024, as shown from the following table.
6) Unbalanced Treatment
In a democratic country, fairness and equity is what should
be promoted. However, there are many areas polluted with mistreatment and
injustice, characterized by some of the following:
- Differential treatment of aboriginal
people with preferential ratio for recruitment in certain big companies, free
education and exemption of taxes (note there may be some grandfathered
agreements in place, but it should not be everywhere and forever as unfair
treatment tend to breed hatred and laziness)
- Differential treatment of refugees with
huge payouts for accommodation and living expenses exacerbating the government
deficit woes and housing crisis while those new immigrants that come through
rigid screening have to make their own ends meet
- Differential treatment of some big
provinces in the federal government transfer payments bringing forth issues of
provincial independence (please note that in Canada the Clarity Act, which has
been approved by the Supreme Court of Canada, governs the process a province
should follow to achieve separation and that the first step is a province-wide
referendum with a clear question)
7) Intuition-Based Decision-Making
Decisions should be made based on rational analysis of
complete correct information. Many times professional advice needs to be
sought, and lessons of the past and other countries can be learned. For
example, while the intent to stabilize the general price is good, the gathering
of all big conglomerates to curtail the retail prices is like adding fuel to
the fire.
As far as the Federal election is concerned, the
writer reminds the readers to consider the following points:
- The platforms of the parties and the
differences among them, which are more practical, reasonable and systematic if
they are similar
- The promises as well as their past actions as actions speak louder than words
- The people around the leader of each party, what kind and if they are empathetic to the general public
- What we strive for compared to what we
strived for before and suffered from it
- The fairness and rules of the play (for
example, to what extent the security clearance can deter foreign interference
when all parties have to abide by the present donation rules, and how most of
the media will depict the picture when reporters can travel together with the
candidates)
Carney said that for the generations that followed the
baby boomers, things haven’t been as good. He declared that it is time to make
big changes and build an economy that works for everyone. The point is that,
will Carney and the Liberals deliver? If so, to what extent?[46]
3. Stimulate Domestic Demand
Eliminating interprovincial trade barriers could add 4%
to real gross domestic product per capita in Canada, equivalent to $2,300 per
person per year, according to a 2019 estimate from the International Monetary
Fund. Even better, there is a simple solution to this seemingly intractable
problem: a mutual recognition agreement. By requiring all provinces to accept
the certifications of another, we would immediately eliminate the need for
people or products to meet the varying requirements of different jurisdictions.
Australia, an economy with many similarities to our own, implemented an
internal mutual recognition agreement in 1992 and has fared well since then[47].
Back in the early 1980’s interprovincial trade and
international trade were roughly equal as a proportion of GDP. However, while
exports to other countries has risen as a share of the economy, trade between
provinces has fallen by a similar amount, compared with 1982[48].
4. Trade Diversification
1) Countries or Regions
In the case of forestry and packaging products, compared
with 2011, exports to other countries have also fallen, while for industrial
machinery the growth in exports to such nations was tiny compared to the surge
seen in US trade. Examining data on the proportion of companies who export
(rather than the value of the goods themselves) shows that between 2006 and
2020 roughly 85% of exporters sent goods to the US and approximately the same
proportion had links to at least one other country. Unfortunately, the
proportion trading with at least one other country has fallen below 70%
recently. The number of companies exporting to both Asia and Europe is at the
lowest in more than 20 years[49].
While Australia does not retaliate against the US, it
actively broadens its trade with other countries. On 25 Mar 2025 Australia's
biggest gas export deal was announced between Britain's BG Group and China
National Offshore Oil Corporation for the sale of 3.6 million tons of liquid
natural gas each year for the next 20 years (worthy of $40 billion based on a crude oil price of $70 per barrel)[50].
In response to ongoing tariff discussions, Canadian
businesses are adjusting strategies to mitigate risks and maintain stability.
More than 2 in 5 (44%) are exploring alternative suppliers to diversify supply
chains and reduce dependency, while almost a quarter have delayed or canceled
expansion plans, reflecting a more cautious approach to capital investment.
Labor adjustments are also notable, with 19% reducing their workforce to manage
rising costs. Additionally, 18% are pursuing market diversification or seeking
external advice to strengthen their competitive position (19%)[51].
2) Industries
Canada’s large trade dependency with the US partly
reflects a high level of concentration in two key areas – energy and autos. For
energy exports this dependency will be maintained unless new oil pipelines
flowing east are approved and laid. For autos, the high dependency reflects the
intertwined nature of the North American auto industry more generally, as cars
and parts cross borders at different stages of construction[52].
Canada needs to focus on sectors that are less reliant
on traditional resource exports, such as renewable energy and IT and look at
ways to support Canadian innovation and entrepreneurship to create new industries
and export opportunities. Also, learning from emerging economies, Canada should
leverage its economic strengths, such as its skilled workforce and access to
natural resources, to create a more resilient and self-sustaining economy. Last
but not least, measures should be taken to address supply chain issues and
reduce reliance on a single or limited number of suppliers.
In 1972, Mitchell Sharp, then Canada's Minister of
Foreign Affairs, wrote a paper entitled “Canada-U.S. Relations: Options for the
Future”. At the time, international politics was in transition and the United
States was recalibrating its perception of its national interests. Sharp
suggested reconsidering the Canada-U.S. relationship. He noted that while
Canadians recognized the benefits of a relationship with the United States,
they were becoming increasingly cautious about the direction of the relationship
and supported measures to “ensure greater Canadian independence”. He argued
that the central question for Canada was whether Canada's interdependence with
the United States would “put uncontrollable pressure on the notion of an
independent Canadian identity, or even on the very elements of Canadian
independence”. He proposed three options, the status quo, a free trade
agreement, and a third way (a long-term strategy to strengthen the Canadian
economy and reduce vulnerability). A free trade agreement would be “an almost
irreversible choice for Canada” because it would tie Canada to the U.S., thus
raising the cost of disengagement. At the same time, the U.S. can redefine the
relationship at any time and for any reason, as was the case in 2001 when the
U.S. prioritized security over prosperity in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. The
same is true now[53].
Now, given that Trump is undermining international trade order and attempting
to bully its neighbors in unprecedented ways, the risks and costs of
integration uncertainty are now greater. The different values and bullying
exhibited by the United States make maintaining the status quo hardly possible
either.
IX.
Conclusion
With all the theories and cases discussed above,
Canada should avoid direct conflict with the Trump administration, delay the
tariffs as long and as much as possible, redirect its oil and gas to the
European market, its agricultural and lumber products to the Asian market and
buy from both Europe and Asia what it used to buy from the US. In this way, the
harm in tariffs will be reduced to the greatest extent and the Canadian economy
will also be restructured successfully.
报复与否:这是个不应考虑的问题
-
以独立视角看待愈演愈烈的加美贸易战
摘要:目前几件事情同时发生了。特朗普政府开始断断续续地对从加拿大进口的商品征收
25% 的关税;尽管当前环境复杂多变,加拿大央行还是决定再次降息;自由党选出了新的领导人马克▪卡尼(Mark Carney),他有着出色的教育和职业背景。加拿大联邦大选定于
2025 年 4 月底举行。本届特朗普政府实际上有三个政策支柱:
1)削减政府开支,到2028年,联邦政府赤字占GDP的比例将从7%降至3%;2)政府放松对银行和商业活动的管制,为中小企业注入更多活力;3)对外国商品征收关税,惩罚那些仍滞留在国外的企业,让他们回归制造业,从而振兴国内经济,降低生活成本。面对美国总统唐纳德-特朗普征收的关税,迄今为止,一些国家的反应是
“不予理睬”,没有采取报复性关税措施。消除省际贸易壁垒、解开阻碍加拿大与其他国家达成某些贸易协定的繁文缛节,或许对加拿大经济更有帮助。即使采取报复措施,联邦官员也有经验对加拿大生产商可以替代的进口酒类征收关税。例如,对加拿大真正依赖的美国进口产品(如药品)征收关税就不是一个好主意。加拿大需要从对美国的依赖中清醒过来,以免被五花大绑,因为加拿大在中国、印度、沙特阿拉伯等一些重要国家的朋友越来越少。加拿大目前是一个资源型经济体,其优势在于石油和天然气。因此,加拿大应该为石油和天然气产业提供补贴,使其能够腾飞到更高的高度,而不是向资源产业征税和奖励绿色产业。加拿大还应向美国学习,改变高政府支出、高赤字和高调维护环境保护的做法。货币贬值和降低利率可以考虑作为缓冲关税影响的方法。然而,中国的经验告诉我们,货币贬值对贸易平衡的改善并不持久,对中国出口企业的美元价格影响也不大。根据美国政府的数据,美国有
17% 的出口到加拿大。而加拿大
75% 以上的出口都流向了美国。在与美国的任何贸易战中,加拿大都将遭受更大的经济打击。现在是加拿大经济未来和国家团结的关键时刻。综合上述理论和案例,加拿大应作出米歇尔▪夏普70年代说的第三种选择,避免与特朗普政府直接冲突,尽量在时间上和范围上拖延关税,解决内部问题,将石油和天然气转向欧洲市场,将农产品和木材产品转向亚洲市场,从欧洲和亚洲购买过去从美国购买的产品。这样,关税带来的危害将得到最大程度的降低,加拿大的经济结构也将得到成功的调整。
关键字:加美贸易、关税、报复、贬值、多元化
[1]
Mark Gollum. “Some countries aren't retaliating against Trump's tariffs. Should
Canada 'turn the other cheek'?” CBC News, 14 Mar 2025, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/tariffs-retaliatory-1.7482385.
[2]
Zoe Mason. “Sleeping with an Elephant”, the Fullcrum, 6 Oct 2019, https://thefulcrum.ca/features/sleeping-with-an-elephant/.
[3] The
Poem of Seven Steps, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Poem_of_Seven_Steps.
[4]
AV Mind. “It's Gonna Fail - Jordan Peterson on Mark Carney As Prime Minister Of
Canada”, 18 Mar 2025, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNZ7rYiWwPg.
[5] Rick
Bell. “Bell: Smith firm — if demands tossed, Alberta could hold a referendum”,
Calgary Herald, 21 Mar 2025,
https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/danielle-smith-alberta-referendum.
[6]
2025 United States trade war with Canada and Mexico. Please take time to read
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[7]
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[9]
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[10]
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[11]
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[12]
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[15]
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[16] “Canadians
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[17]
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[21]
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by clicking the link https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%96%AF%E5%A7%86%E7%89%B9-%E9%9C%8D%E5%88%A9%E5%85%B3%E7%A8%8E%E6%B3%95%E6%A1%88.
[22]
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[23]
“Saudi Arabia plans to invest $600 billion in U.S. over next 4 years, crown
prince says in call with Trump”. CBS News, 23 Jan 2025. Please check the
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[24]
Zhong Jin. “Three capital forces behind Trump gradually emerge as BlackRock
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check the comprehensive article by clicking the link below https://www.deepl.com/en/translator#zh/en-us/贝莱德收购李嘉诚港口业务,特朗普背后的三股资本势力逐步浮现…….
[25]
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[27]
Please check Note 1 again.
[28] Nadine
Yousif. “Booze, oil and orange juice: How Canada could fight Trump tariffs”,
BBC News, 1 Feb 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93qnk92174o.
[29]
Please check the above note.
[30]
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Jessica Steer. “The Average Home Prices in Canada 2025”, Spring Financial, 17,
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Jack Royston. “What US Joining King Charles' Commonwealth Could Look Like”,
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[32]
Please check Note 11.
[33]
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China's Future, 12 Mar 2025, https://www.echemi.com/cms/2289727.html.
[34]
Angus Whitney. “China Ramps Up Criticism of Li Ka-shing’s BlackRock Ports Deal”.
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[35]
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[41]
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[44]
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clicking https://www.ourcommons.ca/Content/Committee/411/FINA/WebDoc/WD5138047/411_FINA_PBC2011_Briefs/Fair%20Pensions%20For%20All%20E.html#:~:text=The%20average%20new%20federal%20pension,%241%20million%20in%20lifetime%20pensions.
[45]
Jiawei Zhang. “Home in China” (in Chinese), 30 Mar 2025. Please take your time
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[49]
Andrew Grantham. “Seeking diversification: Can Canada reduce its dependency on
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[50]
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[51] CFIB.
“Navigating the Looming U.S.-Canada Tariffs: The Impact on Canadian SMEs and
Their Next Steps”,
17 Feb 2025. Please check https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/en/research-economic-analysis/navigating-the-looming-u.s.-
tariffs-the-impact-on-canadian-smes-and-their-next-steps.
[52]
Andrew Grantham. “Seeking diversification: Can Canada reduce its dependency on
the US?” CIBC Economics, 25 Feb 2025, https://thoughtleadership.cibc.com/article/seeking-diversification-can-canada-reduce-its-dependency-on-the-us/.
[53] Blayne Haggart. “Trump’s trade war is forcing Canada to revive a decades-old plan to reduce U.S. dependence”, the Conversation, 4 Feb 2025, https://theconversation.com/trumps-trade-war-is-forcing-canada-to-revive-a-decades-old-plan-to-reduce-u-s-dependence-248433.-the-us/.