-
On
Canada’s China & US Policy and Its Global Trade Pattern in the New World
Order
(Picture by Sean Kilpatrick/AP)
Abstract:
Canada's economy in 2026 faces significant challenges, including a "per
capita" recession with falling living standards, high housing costs, and
critical low labor productivity with key issues including trade tensions with
the U.S. (including new tariff threats), stagnant income growth, high household
debt, and a large inefficient and ineffective public sector. Canadian Prime
Minister has recently visited China and achieved broad-ranged agreements
encompassing EV imports, canola exports, manufacturing investment, tourism,
etc. The deal with China drops Canada's levies on Chinese EVs with increasing
quotas for cars imported each year in exchange for low tariffs levied on
Canadian canola seeds and other agricultural products by China. The deal
appears to be a clear example of Prime Minister Mark Carney's aggressive
pursuit of non-U.S. trade partners for Canada (he pledged a 50 per cent boost
in exports to China by 2030). Nevertheless, Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said
that Canada is not pursuing a free trade deal with China, and it was just meant
to resolve specific tariff issues. The academia also have varied views regarding
Carney’s Davos speech. Some think it highly problematic and just appealing to
the electorate; some say “international economic cooperation is positive sum,
and this new full-on strategic paradigm is zero sum”; others say “no one
expected a relatively conservative central banker from a generally genial
country to stick a finger in Trump’s eye”. However, Trump's threat of a 100%
tariff is more or less a bargaining technique. The blunt Davos speech may be
regarded as an open challenge to President Trump after Federal prosecutors have
opened a criminal investigation into the former Federal Reserve chair Jerome
Powell. The China move may enhance the liberals standing in the Federal
election and strengthen their voice at the Parliament. Also, this may wake up
the Canadian premiers to shatter off the shackles (the bureaucracy, red tape,
duties and other domestic trade barriers) among different provinces. While
Canada cannot deepen the relationship with the US, nor keep the status quo, the
only option is trade diversity with no dependence on a single country. In this
new era marked by economic weakness, higher inflation rates, escalating tariff
wars, persistent regional conflicts, and increasingly difficult international
coordination, the question arises: should we cling to dry hollow dogma and
abstract geopolitical stances, or focus on tangible improvements in people's
living standards? Should we be an ally backed into a corner, or an independent
sovereign nation pursuing autonomy and self-reliance to seek a new order? That
being said, cautions should be made while we shift away from the old order as
it takes both time and efforts (and that it appears that we acted too late to
do that). While pursuing diversification, Canada needs to separate the politics
and the economy, respect the rule of transparency, establish trust based on
understanding, agreements and arrangements, maintain mutual safeguarding of
rights and interests, exert restrictions of control in sensitive sectors,
participate in multilateral negotiation and mediation mechanisms and learn from
Mexico, Argentine and Australia in their experiences with China. The author
also advocates a national safety net composed of some of the following: a
three-level high-tech defense system in terms of the territory, a comprehensive
currency exchange and loans system in terms of finance and an emergent
negotiations and quick response system in terms of communications. The author
further emphasizes: No one can rescue you if you want to perish yourself. The
inner enemy is bigger than the outer one. Opportunities hide behind the biggest
problems. While it is a must to increase trading with China, it would be wise
to diversify Canada’s trade in terms of both regions and industries, to walk
the talk instead of sitting on the couch, to build up economic strength by
bringing forward more Canadian product brands, more technology talents and more
positive and sustainable investment, to remove the trade barriers both at home
and abroad, to correct the wrong political correctness, and to be able to walk
the tight rope between the US and China. An overall strategy of IEEU
(independence, economy first, equal treatment for the same status and for each
other, and unity of middle powers) would be good for Canada to adjust to the present
situation.
Key
Words: Tariffs, Trade
Pattern, Diversity, Living Standards
In this new era marked by economic weakness, higher
inflation rates, escalating tariff wars, persistent regional conflicts, and
increasingly difficult international coordination, the question arises: Should
we cling to the dry hollow dogma and abstract geopolitical stances, or focus on
tangible improvements in people's living standards? Should we be an ally backed
into a corner, or an independent sovereign nation pursuing autonomy and
self-reliance to seek a new order? That being said, cautions should be made
while we shift away from the old order as it takes both time and efforts and
that it appears that we acted too late to do that. Canadian Prime Minister has
recently visited China and achieved broad-ranged agreements (including the
Joint Statement of the China-Canada Leaders’ Meeting as well as the
China-Canada Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap) encompassing EV imports,
canola exports, manufacturing investment, tourism, etc. The deal with China
drops Canada's levies on Chinese EVs from 100% to 6.1% for the first 49,000
vehicles imported each year. That quota could rise, Carney said, reaching
70,000 in half a decade. In exchange, China will cut tariffs on Canadian canola
seed to around 15% by 1 March, down from the current rate of 84%[1].
Carney said Beijing had also committed to removing tariffs on Canadian canola
meal, lobsters, crabs and peas "until at least the end of the year".
Carney himself said the deal between the two reflected
the need for cooperation and partnership in a more “divided and fragmented”
world. The trip symbolized that countries are operating in a “new world order”.
Xi hailed a “turnaround” in China-Canada ties since he met Carney at the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea in 2025[2].
The deal appears to be a clear example of Prime Minister Mark Carney's
aggressive pursuit of non-U.S. trade partners for Canada (he pledged a 50 per
cent boost in exports to China by 2030). A news release from the Prime
Minister's Office says Canada is expecting new deals signed on the trip will
help resolve long-standing trade barriers in the agricultural sector,
"from beef to pet food" - Canadian exports that have been banned from
China for years. Presently China is Canada's second-largest trading partner.
Canadian merchandise exports to China totalled $30 billion in 2024, while
imports from China stood at $88.9 billion[3].
While this is applauded by many Canadians, the Conservative
Party and Ontario have criticized this move. The federal NDP liked it. U.S.
President Donald Trump initially expressed support for the deal, and several
days later he posted on social media that 100% tariff (possibility to be
addressed later in the article) could be levied to Canada. Another
administration official said Canada would "surely regret" its
decision[4].
The academia also have varied views regarding Carney’s Davos speech. Some think
it highly problematic and just appealing to the electorate; some say “international
economic cooperation is positive sum, and this new full-on strategic paradigm
is zero sum”; others say “no one expected a relatively conservative central
banker from a generally genial country to stick a finger in Trump’s eye”[5].
Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Monday he spoke with U.S. Trade
Representative Jamieson Greer and told him that Canada is not pursuing a free
trade deal with China. He also said the agreement with China is meant to
resolve specific tariff issues, similar to action taken by the U.S. government
last year on soybeans[6].
This article will explore why Canada needs to change course, but will the
government be able to maneuver the boat of Canada in the storm of international
tariffs and uncertainty towards a safe harbor? It takes both courage and
wisdom, both strategy and tact to handle this situation.
I. Problems Canada is Now Facing
Canada's economy in 2026 faces significant challenges,
including a "per capita" recession with falling living standards,
high housing costs, and critical low labor productivity, according to analysis
by the Fraser Institute. Key issues include trade tensions with the U.S.
(including new tariff threats), stagnant income growth, high household debt,
and a large, less productive public sector.
1. Trade Tensions and U.S. Dependence
The shift in U.S. trade policy towards protectionism
has led to uncertainty, with threats of tariffs on key exports (steel,
aluminum, automobiles) weakening economic activity. In general, Canadian
businesses will expect a 35% tariff on most goods[7],
shown by the following:
- Wood Products
& Furniture: Starting January 1, 2026, the U.S. increased tariffs to
30% on certain upholstered wooden furniture and 50% on kitchen cabinets
and vanities from countries without a specific trade deal.
- Steel,
Aluminum, and Copper: Following the 2025 escalations, 50% tariffs on steel
and aluminum remained in place, and 50% tariffs on copper were imposed.
- General
Merchandise: A 35% tariff applies to various non-CUSMA (Canada-United
States-Mexico Agreement) compliant goods.
- Low-Value
Shipments: The U.S. has eliminated the "de minimis" exemption
for low-value shipments (under $800), meaning more Canadian goods face
inspection and duties.
2. Deteriorating Living Standards
Despite some population growth, Canada has experienced
a decline in per-capita GDP, indicating a shrinking economy on an individual
basis. While some market rebalancing is occurring, housing remains severely
unaffordable for many. Disposable income falls, with lower-and-middle-income
earners showing higher rates of debt delinquency. Job growth is failing to keep
pace with rapid population growth, causing unemployment to rise. However, a
growing reliance on the public sector, which has lower productivity than the
private sector, along with infrastructure gaps, is hindering overall economic
growth[8].
The standard of living of the average Canadian
declined over the 2020-to-2024 period as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per
person decreased by 2.0% (0.4% annually), the worst five-year decline since the
Great Depression. This decline in the Canadian living standard took place
despite aggregate GDP growth of 1.5% over the period[9].
Canada’s capital-to-labour ratio declined sharply over this period. In other
words, the average worker in Canada had less machinery and equipment to work
with, which, in turn, lowered productivity。All
of this was resulted from weaker business investment and higher levels of
immigrants.
A new report from Rosenberg Research, Canadian Economy
on Life Support, shows that despite interest rate cuts from a high of five per
cent in 2024, per capita GDP is still falling, and the economy is growing at
only one per cent annually. Moreover, the housing and manufacturing sectors are
struggling with home prices down two per cent year-over-year. Manufacturing,
which heavily relies on U.S. trade, is down five percent[10].
As a similar country in industrial structure and
population size, Australia fares much better in terms of the per capita GDP,
per capita debt, and productivity[11].
3. Low Productivity & Business Investment
Canada suffers from a long-term,
"emergency-level" decline in labor productivity. This is exacerbated
by low business investment in research and development, as well as a shortage
of talents due to a brain drain and blind immigration emphasizing the quantity
not the quality.
These interconnected issues have prompted warnings
that Canada's economic momentum has faded, requiring a significant shift in
policy to restore growth and competitiveness.
II. Economic Structure Choices
1. Maintain the Status Quo
Many things have changed, and the status quo cannot be
kept as we have entered in an era of changes and uncertainty due to the
following:
- Changeable
tariffs threated from hegemons
- Regional wars
and disputes
- Large inflow
of diversified immigrants and refugees
- Rising role
of labor unions and higher and higher cost of living
2. Dependence on the United States
1) The Pros
Deepened USMCA Ties
USMCA is a later version of NAFTA. However, it is in
jeopardy with uncertain moves of the present Trump administration. Carney said
on this, you cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration
when integration becomes the source of your subordination.
The Weight in Trade with
the US
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Above is the trade figures of the US with China,
Canada and EU, which shows EU has a larger share. As far as some specific
products like auto parts are concerned, Mexico consolidated its position as the
leading supplier of auto parts to the United States in 2025, accounting for
46.2% of total US auto parts imports—the highest share ever recorded—according
to data from Mexico’s National Auto Parts Industry association (INA). Canada
(about one-third of Mexico’s size), Brazil, China, and Germany follow as
secondary markets at a considerable distance. This shows that US has the
potential to increase its trading volume with Canada[12].
Need for Coalition
The EU now says they're pausing for 90 days on
retaliatory tariffs so they can negotiate. Mexico hasn't retaliated. Japan, S. Korea
and Vietnam are in talks to come to some arrangement[13].
Pushing back was necessary. But there will be more strength in remaining a
united front.
Rule-based
Originally, a rule-based society is one in order and
harmony. With rules and measures in place, things could be easier. This has
worked out well in the old order. While the rules are still there, those who
interpret or make the rules want to change. Therefore, when rules cannot
protect you, you have to protect yourself.
A Relatively Long Brethren
History
Canadians pride themselves on generosity and kindness,
and they were taught in school how they fought alongside Americans in both
world wars, how when 9/11 happened Canadians housed 33,000 passengers in Gander,
Halifax and other places[14],
invited them into their homes, fed them, calmed them and welcomed them with
open arms, how when the flood came in Florida and New Orleans they sent linen
and first responders, and how when the wildfires happened in California they
sent firefighters and water bombers. When the US went to war in Iraq and Afghanistan,
Canadians lost a lot of soldiers there as well.
2) The Cons
Hegemony
French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday said
Europe would not give in to bullies or be intimidated, in a scathing criticism
of U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose steep tariffs if Europe does
not let him take over Greenland. "We do prefer respect to bullies,"
Macron said. "And we do prefer rule of law to brutality." U.S.
President Donald Trump has threatened 200 per cent tariffs on French wines over
the country’s refusal to join his so-called ‘Board of Peace’ for Gaza. Canada
has expressed support for the board in principle, but refuses to pay the $1
billion US entry fee[15].
Recently Trump said that Macron might not be the French president any longer.
While Trump threatens with a 100% tariff on Canada, it
is more or less a technique used to bargain with Canada, due to the following:
a) Canadian goods are known for their fast delivery, low cost and stable
supply, and tariffs may urge the US to look for replacement sources which may
increase the logistics cost, lengthen the production cycle, boost up the price
for food, raw materials and energies. b) The US government may have to increase
subsidies to some businesses so that government deficits may rise again. c)
Businesses and consumers may complain on cost hikes and shortage of supply, and
Trump may lose some of his firm supporters. 4) Eastern American states rely
heavily on Ontario for its electricity supply. It is said that presently 20
American states are hit by a severe storm, and an electricity cut-off may be
vital to the US.
In May of 2025, Canada’s exports to the US accounts
68.3% of the total exports while the average monthly ratio in 2024 is 75.9%,
and Canada’s imports from the US are also dropping consecutively for several
months, symbolizing the decoupling of Canada from the US[16].
The outgoing Canadian ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten
Hillman says a “loss in trust” among Canadians with regard to the country’s
relationship with the United States won’t be easy to undo. “I think the
Canada-U.S. relationship has changed and will not go back to what it was, at
least for a very long time, if ever,” Hillman said in an interview with The
West Block guest host Jackson Proskow. “There are some foundational aspects of
our relationship with the United States and the U.S.’s relationship with the
world that are being questioned now in ways that they weren’t in the first
term,” she said[17].
As mentioned by Carney, over the past two decades, a
series of crises in finance, health, energy and geopolitics have laid bare the
risks of extreme global integration. But more recently, great powers have begun
using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial
infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited. Carney
further urged, middle powers should “stop invoking rules-based international
order as though it still functions as advertised. Call it what it is: a system
of intensifying great power rivalry where the most powerful pursue their
interests using economic integration as coercion.” “When middle powers
criticize economic intimidation from one direction but stay silent when it
comes from another, we are keeping the sign in the window. It means building what we
claim to believe in, rather than waiting for the old order to be restored. It
means creating institutions and agreements that function as described, and it
means reducing the leverage that enables coercion.” “And diversification
internationally is not just economic prudence; it’s a material foundation for
honest foreign policy, because countries earn the right to principled stands by
reducing their vulnerability to retaliation.”[18]
Immigration Policies
Canada is an immigrant country, with immigrants coming
steadily every year. However, under the Trump administration, many immigrant
categories have been removed, and a wall is being built between the US and
Mexico.
Healthcare System Differences
Canada is proud to have its famous free medical care
system which the world is trying to copy, while in the US, when residents get
ill, a big bill will be waiting for them.
Foreign Policy Orientation
In the world, Canada is well-known for its loving of
peace and a green environment, while the US is withdrawing from many
international agreements and keeps active in Iraq, Afghanistan, and now even
Venezuela and Greenland.
3. Diversified Trade Pattern with More Interactions
with China
1) The Cons
Ideology Conflict
(in terms of values, principles, morale)
China is regarded for some time as an old civilization
authoritarian, undemocratic, and uneasy to deal with. There are also all sorts
of questions about the extent to which China can actually become more
integrated into Canada—not least because Canada has been one of the sharp tips
of the spear, along with Australia and a couple of other countries—in being
fairly confrontational against China over the last couple of years. The Chinese
aren’t going to forget that, and no Canadian can forget that China detained two
hostages as part of the drama over Huawei. So, these things aren’t easily put
to bed[19].
However, China has made great progresses to remove
poverty, to attain a zero emission society, and to be more transparent and more
open to the outside world. On the contrary, some hegemons are seen to be more
and more aggressive and infringing on others’ benefits unscrupulously, while advertising
their freedom and democracy principles.
On the one hand, Canada needs to be principled. Carney
said, aim to “be principled in our commitment to fundamental values,
sovereignty, territorial integrity, the prohibition of the use of force except
when consistent with the UN Charter and respect for human rights.”[20]
On the other hand, Canada should be pragmatic when
need arises as not every partner shares the same values or interest. Should Canada
hold onto the dry hollow dogma, abstract geopolitical stances and adhere to the
ruptured old order? Should it focus more of its attention to the livelihood of
the people and prevent the farmers from going bankrupt, the shelf prices from
skyrocketing, the jobs from being deprived, the healthcare from deteriorating
and the housing units from being less affordable and accessible?
U.S.
Influence
Canada's economy is more dependent on the US; a trade
disruption with the U.S. would severely impact Canadian jobs and GDP, with
limited scope for retaliation without significant self-harm, according to
Econofact and LinkedIn. The U.S. accounts for about 78% of Canada's exports,
with substantial daily trade volumes supporting millions of jobs in both
countries, particularly in manufacturing, energy (oil, gas), and machinery. In
the energy sector, Canada is the U.S.'s single largest foreign supplier of
energy, including crude oil and natural gas, according to Global Affairs Canada
and Scotiabank. According to Statistics Canada, the U.S. is the largest source
of direct investment in Canada, while Canada is the second-largest investor in
the U.S., highlighting intertwined financial links. However, the U.S. trade
deficit with Canada was 1/8 the size of China’s and 1/5 that of Mexico. U.S.
trade deficit with Canada is the second lowest among trading partners[21].
This shows that the US is not relying much on Canada in trade.
“Canada lives
because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your
statements,” Trump said Wednesday, while delivering his own speech in Davos. Rebuffing
that assertion, Carney said “Canada and the United States have built a
remarkable partnership in the economy, in security, and in rich cultural
exchange. But Canada doesn’t live because of the United States.” ”In a time of
rising walls and thickening borders, we can demonstrate how a country can be
both open and secure, welcoming and strong, principled and powerful,” the prime
minister said[22]. Trump
posted on Truth Social Saturday that Canada could face a 100 per cent tariff on
all Canadian goods entering the U.S. if Prime Minister Mark Carney “makes a
deal with China.” He said, “China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it,
including the destruction of their businesses, social fabric and general way of
life.” Matthew Holmes, executive vice-president, international and chief public
policy officer at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, told CTV News Channel on
Saturday that given the depth of the trade relationship between the two
countries, the impact of tariffs would be significant. “About 75 per cent of
our exports go to the U.S., and we wouldn’t stop exporting. They would just be
more expensive, and they would largely be more expensive for the American
consumer and American businesses,” Holmes said. “We have supply chains that
rely on both parts of that border working and being porous and allowing the
movement of people and goods to continue, and if that stops, or gets harder or
more expensive, the costs will be borne on both sides of the border.”[23]
Talking about China, Brian Kingston, President and CEO
of the Canadian Automobile Manufacturers Association, stated unequivocally: We
don't need Chinese EVs, but China does need Canadian agricultural
exports." He warned that allowing Chinese EVs into the Canadian market
would not only undermine the domestic auto industry but could also damage
relations with the United States, a key trading partner. In fact, the U.S.
maintains a hardline stance against Chinese EVs entering the North American
market, placing Canada in a difficult position during negotiations. On one
hand, Canada needs to ease trade tensions with China; while on the other hand,
it must safeguard its core interests with the United States[24].
With his background and past work experiences, Carney’s
blunt Davos speech may be regarded as an open challenge to President Trump
after Federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into Federal
Reserve chair Jerome Powell[25].
This may increase his chances of obtaining a majority vote if there is a
confidence poll. Also, this may wake up the Canadian premiers to shatter off
the chains (the bureaucracy, red tape, duties and other domestic trade
barriers) among different provinces. As a matter of fact, a research paper from
Queen’s University underscores a startling reality: interprovincial trade
barriers are potentially as costly as a 7% tariff on goods crossing provincial
lines, inflating consumer prices by an estimated 7.8% to 14.5%. This artificial
inflation stifles competition, hampers innovation, and curtails economic growth[26].
The authors estimate that dismantling these barriers could boost Canada’s GDP
by up to $161 billion annually, or an additional $2,300 to $4,000 per Canadian
per year. According to an IMF estimate, cross-province service barriers are
responsible for much of the tariff, as high as 40 per cent in sectors such as
health care and education. Reducing or eliminating barriers in finance,
transport and telecommunications would make it easier to open and expand a
business, increase the movement of labour and support investment in
high-productivity activities. Stripping away interprovincial trade barriers
would boost Canada’s economy by about seven per cent per year, or $210 billion[27],
and this would be the gift that keeps on giving because it will come from
increased productivity, better competition and more efficient use of capital
and labour.
Lack of
Shared Multilateral Consultation and Mediation Mechanisms
Except for the UN, IMF, World Bank, APEC, G20, and
WTO, China have very few organizations that could be used as a platform to
negotiate or mediate with Canada.
The writer would like to emphasize that the China move
is a must (meaning we have to concentrate on what we can do instead of what we
want to do) due to the following:
- A demand from
Canadians for improvement of living standards
- A necessity
to be more independent due to
bullying and uncertainty from the US side
- An ongoing
trend for multi-polarity (which may be achieved by unity of middle powers
instead of big powers meddling in other parts of the world like Venezuela
or Greenland)
- A changed Canadian
public opinion on China with the majority supporting more trade with China
in spite of its human rights issue[28].
2) The Pros
A
Strategic Move
What should be interpretation of the world? Is it a
world where democracies cooperate or a world where power is the only currency,
a world that agreements mean something or a world that friends are treated like
enemies? When patients shout at you, would you shout back? When you are bullied
at school, would you tell the teacher, tolerate and keep quiet or fight back
yourself or at least show some muscles? Canada is now at such a moment that it
has to make some changes.
Room for
Improvement
Coal and petroleum oil are the primary energy products
exported to China, though together these account for only a small fraction of
China’s total energy imports. Instead, Russia, Malaysia, Iraq and several Gulf
states are China’s principal international energy suppliers.
Structural
Complementation
Canada’s vast natural resource wealth (minerals,
metals, forest products) directly supports China’s massive manufacturing
sector. China is a major importer of Canadian wood pulp, minerals, and energy
products. Also, China is a vital market for Canadian agriculture, particularly
for products like canola seed, beef, pork, and seafood. Canada’s strengths in
aerospace technology and training complement China's rapidly expanding aviation
and infrastructure sectors. Canadian expertise in clean technology and
environmental services can also be used in Chinese EVs and other products. As China’s
population is aging, demand for intermediate goods used in residential
construction and food manufacturing, including oil seeds, animal feed and
cereals may increase.
Introduction of Chinese Investment and Know-How in the Manufacturing
Industry
A joint venture between Canada and a Chinese partner
could, if done right, help to bring Chinese technology and know-how to Canada’s
manufacturing base. Learning from China would be a major boon to Canadian
industrial strategy. In industrial policy, selective exposure to Canada’s best
competitors is helpful. It enables domestic manufacturers to be disciplined.
Unrestricted exposure could wipe out domestic gains, but some competition from
low-cost, high-quality importers forces producers to raise their game and
learn. This drives innovation and productivity. Also, by combining selective
market exposure with potential joint ventures, Canada is borrowing from the
playbook that built China’s own manufacturing prowess[29].
III. Why Canada Must Change Course
1. Demands for Improved Living Standards
Canadians who did not have confidence in the country’s
Parliament shot up near the end of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s tenure in
office, when 40 percent of Canadians gave it a confidence rating of one or two
out of five in the last quarter of 2024, according to new Statistics Canada
data. Alberta saw its citizens’ confidence wane from 26 percent in 2022 to 22.8
percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. Saskatchewanites’ confidence in
Parliament over the same time period dropped the most, at over 10 percentage
points, from 31.1 percent to 21 percent[30].
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a slate of
measures aimed to help Canadians cope with the increasing cost of living. Ottawa’s
new food affordability measures will help low- and modest-income people living
in Saskatchewan, but more still needs to be done, according to an anti-poverty
group. The rising cost of living is driving more people to the food bank, with
one in 10 Reginans using the service each year[31].
2. Trump 2.0 and Neo-Monroe Doctrine (Criminal charges
against Powell earlier this year)
Since taking office for a second time last year, Trump
has imposed tariffs on Canadian sectors like metals and automotives, which has
led to swirling economic uncertainty. He has also threatened to rip up a
longstanding North American free trade agreement between Canada, the US and
Mexico, calling it "irrelevant". Miller of the Rideau Potomac
Strategy Group told the BBC, "there's a reasonable chance that we could
end up in 2026 without a meaningful, workable trade deal with the United
States." "And Canada needs to be prepared."[32]
As put by Mark Carney, “our view is the middle powers
must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.”[33]
3. U.S. Realism in International Politics
This can be shown by US continuing soybean and chip
exports to China while applying double standards to allies.
4. Post-Alliance Era: Political Multilateralism and
Economic Realism
According to Mark Carney, big powers “have the market
size, the military capacity and the leverage to dictate terms. Middle powers do
not. But when we only negotiate bilaterally with a hegemon, we negotiate from
weakness. We accept what’s offered. We compete with each other to be the most
accommodating.” “This is not sovereignty. It’s the performance of sovereignty
while accepting subordination. In a world of great power rivalry, the countries
in between have a choice: compete with each other for favour, or combine to
create a third path with impact.”[34]
IV. How to Improve
1. Separation of Politics from Economy
Canada and the US share many of the same values and
principles, yet the relationship has become more and more rigid. Argentine is
an open democratic country, yet it has a very good trade and investment
relationship with China. Australia, has
a free trade deal with both China and the US. Thus, it is not the ideology that
is in the way. Carney told reporters that "the world has changed" in
recent years, and the progress made with China sets Canada up "well for
the new world order". Canada's relationship with China, he added, had
become "more predictable" than its relationship with the US under the
Trump administration. He later wrote, in a social media post, that Canada was
"recalibrating" its relationship with China, "strategically,
pragmatically, and decisively".
That being said, Canada still needs to have a sense of
identity. In a 2015 interview with The New York Times Magazine, Justin Trudeau
stated, "There is no core identity, no mainstream in Canada". He
described Canada as the "first postnational state," suggesting that
shared values like openness and respect define the country, rather than a
specific cultural, linguistic, or historical core[35].
Critics argued this approach undermines Canadian culture, ignores the need for
integration, and improperly suggests that national cohesion is not important,
as noted by the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.
2. Trust Based on Understanding, Agreements and
Arrangements
Political mutual trust is the core in international
diplomatic relationships. Though China and Canada have different national
conditions, both should respect each other's sovereignty and territorial
integrity, respect each other's chosen political systems and development paths,
respect and protect the normal business transactions between the two countries,
and adhere to the correct way for countries to maintain a friendly relationship
and promote mutual thriving and prosperity. As a matter of fact, Meng was
arrested to conform to the US request, while Canada was not getting better
treatment from the US, Canada got a winter in the Sino-Canada relationship.
Also, immediately after Carney met Xi in Gyeongju of Korea stating that Canada
wanted to restart bilateral cooperation and make up for lost time[36],
Canadian navy joined the Philippines in the Southern China Sea in a joint naval
exercise, with China as the imaginary enemy. This appears disrespectful,
inconsistent as well as immature. China has expressed strong opposition to
joint naval exercises and security pacts between Western nations (including
Canada) and Southeast Asian partners in the region, viewing them as attempts to
provoke tension and interfere in regional affairs under the guise of
"freedom of navigation" or efforts to contain China.
3. Transparency
The trade cooperation roadmap says both countries vow
to improve "the transparency for foreign investments in accordance with
their domestic legal frameworks." Vina Nadjibulla of Asia Pacific
Foundation said that could inform how Canada navigates talks on the continental
trade deal while managing Washington's concerns about China.
4. Mutual Safeguarding of Rights and Interests
Vina Nadjibulla was also worried that China could use
trade as a way of coercion[37],
and some other people also mentioned trade and investment being used as
political leverage. Therefore, rights and interests need to be protected, and a
system needs to be in place. However, Canada and China have a lot in common. As
influential nations in the Asia-Pacific region and as well in the world, both
China and Canada are defenders of multilateralism and free trade, sharing
common positions on many international issues. During Carney's visit, China
expressed willingness to enhance communication and coordination with Canada
within frameworks such as the United Nations, G20, and APEC to jointly address
global challenges and jointly safeguard world peace and stability. For both
China and Canada, 2026 will be an extraordinary year. This year marks the
beginning of China's 15th Five-Year Plan, while Canada will implement its new
budget. Both
countries face the important tasks of economic development and improving
people's livelihood. Enhancing mutual trust and deepening cooperation between
China and Canada not only serves the common interests of both sides but also
contributes to world peace, stability, development, and prosperity[38].
5. Restrictions on Control over Sensitive Key Industries
Ontario Premier Doug Ford slammed the EV tariff relief
in a social media post, saying China now has "a foothold in the Canadian
market" that it will use at the expense of Canadian workers[39].
Therefore, a gradual shift with control can be obtained with some manageable
control measures. For example, less than 3% of auto production can be
introduced to both meet zero-emission and bring to consumers more reasonably
priced vehicles to increase total welfare and stimulate the economy in general.
Also, China welcomes Canadians to invest in aerospace and advanced technology
while Canada remains conservative on Chinese investment in sensitive sectors,
and the writer would suggest a certain percentage of controlling shares so as
to both introduce more capital and yet still gain control.
Canada banned China's Huawei from working on the
country's 5G networks in 2022, citing national security concerns. However, the
writer finds that there are also such concerns on American iPhones. Certain
Apple services still track and transmit data. The point is that there should be
agreement in place that privacy should be protected and data not leaked to
third parties without the owner’s consent. To maximize privacy, users can
enable Advanced Data Protection in iCloud settings and review app permissions
in the "Privacy & Security" menu.
6. Aiming at Quality Brands and Hi-Tech Industries
If we look at Canada’s exports to China, nearly 90
percent of it consists of some form of bulk commodities: food, canola, and ore.
Canada is getting electric vehicles, and China is getting canola, and you may
wonder which country is a developing one. Canada has trends in AI and quantum,
and maybe it can get aboard the electric train too. Or, Canada and China can
develop the trackless trains. Shopify, Lululemon, Archaeopteryx, Canada Goose -
these are more or less household names in the US. But with one-tenth of the US
population, Canada has not produced the number of comparable brands that even
Canadians can name.
7. Encouraging People-to-People Exchanges Based on
Mutual Benefits
China is currently Canada's second-largest trading
partner. The latest Ipsos poll shows that over half of Canadians support
strengthening trade ties and economic cooperation with China[40].
Chinese components and raw materials are vital inputs
for Canadian manufacturing. Businesses hope Carney’s visit will help secure
supply chain stability. With more businesses between China and Canada looking
to trade with each other, there will be a tendency to make the partnership sustainable
and prosperous.
The Canadian Wood Council believes that Canada and
China have comprehensively planned cooperation in new areas such as clean
energy and green products. Deepening exchanges around key directions like
prefabricated construction applications and collaborative industrial chain
upgrades will establish a platform for resource matching and innovation
collaboration between Canadian and Chinese wood structure enterprises[41].
8. Learning from Argentine's trade relations with
China and Benchmarking against the South American Common Market
Argentine has solidified its economic relationship
with China as of January 2026, despite President Javier Milei’s previous
anti-communist rhetoric and alignment with the U.S. Key aspects include a
renewed currency swap agreement, Chinese investment in non-renewable resources,
and a massive influx of affordable Chinese electric vehicles (EVs).
• Trade
and Investment: China remains Argentina's second-largest trade partner,
importing massive amounts of beef and soy. Chinese investments in Argentina
have exceeded US$23 billion, focusing heavily on energy, mining, and
non-renewable resources.
• Currency
Swap: Following an initial freeze, the bilateral currency swap agreement was
renewed in 2024 and continues to operate, allowing Argentina to manage its
foreign exchange reserves .
• Electric
Vehicle Influx: As of January 2026, Argentina has opened its doors to Chinese
electric vehicles (EVs) to curb inflation, with firms like BYD importing
thousands of low-cost cars.
Canada can learn to manage its complex relationship
with China by adopting the pragmatic, risk-aware, and diversified approaches
demonstrated by Australia and, more recently, shifting strategies in South
America, particularly regarding critical minerals. Some key lessons drawn from
multiple sources[42] include
the following.
1) Strategic Resource Management
Argentina, under President Javier Milei, has
demonstrated a approach of engaging with China for economic
investment—particularly in strategic sectors like lithium and copper—while maintaining
a clear-eyed view of national interest.
2) Balancing Political Shifts
Argentina shows that, despite ideological differences,
economic realities require a pragmatic and functional relationship with
Beijing.
3) Expanding Trade among All Different Areas
China is Argentina's second-largest trading partner.
Argentina exports soybeans, beef, and other products to China, presenting
opportunities for this major global food producer. Argentine beef will continue
to benefit from a preferential 12.5% tariff rate within the 511,000 ton quota.
China remains Argentina's largest beef export destination. Data shows that in
the first 11 months of 2025, approximately 70% of Argentina's total beef
exports were destined for the Chinese market, even when the prices doubled. As
for soybeans, the percentage reached 90%, contributing significantly to the
country’s $2.5 billion trade surplus. From January to October 2025, China also accounted
for 85.7% of import value and 94.4% of import volume. According to Infobae on December
10, The Argentine Textile Industry Foundation (Fundación ProTejer) released a
report stating that 7 out of every 10 garments entering the Argentine market
originate from China.
In January 2026, 5,800 vehicles from the giant EV
maker BYD arrived in Argentina after a 23-day voyage from Singapore, and five
or six more models are on the way. The Argentinian government is allowing up to
50,000 electric and hybrid vehicles into the country tariff-free in 2026[43],
which is an even better deal than what Canada has offered.
4) Wide-Ranged Investment Cooperation
According to TN on January 11, the Milei
administration formally submitted a $150 million financing request to relevant
Chinese banks to restart the Jorge Cepernic hydroelectric project in Santa Cruz
Province. The project has been suspended since late 2023. The joint venture
(UTE) comprising China's Gezhouba Group, Argentina's Eling Energía, and
Hidrocuyo stated that once financing is secured, it will immediately begin rehiring
some employees who left due to the suspension. Currently, bidding for project
materials has commenced, with deliveries expected to begin in March 2026.
China also has plans to build new trains and upgrade the
old trains in Argentina.
Chinese products are known for their high quality and
competitive prices, complemented by excellent merchant services. Thanks to
artificial intelligence applications, a single worker at a Shanghai suburban
port can manage ten container cranes; at a Nanjing factory, 28 robotic arms
operate busily on production lines while automated guided vehicles move
efficiently[44].
China's new Five-Year Plan proposal highlights key focus areas including
quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, and sixth-generation mobile
communications.
5) Political Cooperation
Not only in terms of trade and investment have
Argentine and China engaged deeply, they have done so also in politics.
According to Infobae on January 16, a parliamentary delegation led by Juliana
Santillán, a deputy from Argentina's ruling Liberal Front party, visited China
from January 13 to 16. Santillán described it as an official visit funded by
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The parliamentary delegation visited
several Chinese provinces and met with multiple private enterprises, including
COFCO in Guangdong, Shenzhen Lide International Development Zone, as well as
Huawei, Mindray, and Skyworth. Santillán emphasized that such visits are
crucial for deepening mutual understanding between the two nations and
strengthening the Argentina-China strategic partnership.
6) Active Free Trade Arrangement with the Western
Countries
Another experience Canada can borrow is engagement in
multilateral agreements or arrangements to both facilitate trade and establish
rapport in the same group. According to BANCO PIANO on January 9, Argentine
Foreign Minister Gilardino emphasized on Friday that after 25 years of arduous
negotiations, the EU recently approved the trade agreement with Mercosur.
Gilardino stressed: “This is a win-win situation: Argentina and Mercosur member
states will gain preferential access to the EU—the world's third-largest
economy with a market of 450 million people, accounting for approximately 15%
of global GDP.” He further highlighted that the EU “will eliminate tariffs on
92% of our exports and grant preferential access to the remaining 7.5%. Under
these terms, 99% of Mercosur's agricultural exports will benefit."
9. Working Together Participating in Joint Committees
and Multilateral Mechanisms or Arrangements
The bilateral agreements signed between Canada and
China also escalate the work of the Joint Economic and Trade Commission, a body
tasked with resolving trade barriers that was dormant until Carney brought it
back to life last year. Those agreements will have trade ministers from each
country chair the commission, which will meet in Canada in the summer or fall. Canada and China have
also revived a joint agricultural committee which also touches on these issues.
The main economics agreement between both countries
says both support rules-based trade with the World Trade Organization "at
its core," and both support WTO reforms. The document notes Canada's
long-held position that economies looking to join the bloc CPATP — which
include China and Taiwan — need to meet the high standards on such things as
labour rights, environmental protection and intellectual property[45].
That being said, the writer thinks similar provisions as in WTO can help China
to shift gradually both to give China a chance and to allow Canada to continue
enjoying affordable goods and products imported from China.
10. Correct the Wrong Political Correctness
1) Stop Blind Support to Projects with Harmful Effects
The annual Indigenous budget has almost tripled from
2015 to 2025, growing (in nominal dollars) from roughly $11 billion to more
than $32 billion.
In addition, class actions have been settled without
litigation, with estimated liabilities reaching $76 billion in 2023[46],
while specific claims have been settled at a rate four times higher than by the
previous government, leading to a significant transfer of land and money to
First Nations. Simply increasing money transfers to First Nations does not
necessarily produce improvements in measured well-being.
Since Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion of
Ukraine, Canada has committed over $23.5 billion in multifaceted assistance for
Ukraine, including over $12 billion in direct financial support, and additional
support announced in December 2025 to back the International Monetary Fund
program for Ukraine as well as support its recovery and reconstruction. Since
January 2022, Canada has committed $396.85 million in humanitarian assistance
(with shelter, food, health services and relevant support involved) to respond
to the humanitarian impacts of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine and neighbouring
countries. A Brazilian observed this, and posted, despite popular support for
Ukraine, most of Brazilians would also agree that this is a war on the other
side of the world and has nothing to do with us, therefore we should remain as
neutral as possible. So the question is what makes Canada so different from us[47]
and the rest of the New World (aside from the US)? Another thing to be aware
is: are Canadians so rich that they want to give away their money so freely?
2)
Stop Introducing Refugees and Temporary Immigrants without Scrutiny and Load-Capacity
Review
With more and
more refugees and temporary immigrants coming with less scrutiny and less
consideration of the load capacity, while the U.S. still generally has higher
violent crime and homicide rates, especially due to firearm violence, Canada's
rates for overall property crime and certain violent crimes (like major
assaults) are now often higher, and the gap in violent crime has been narrowing
as U.S. rates decline and Canadian rates rise. The crime rate change is a sharp
contrast to Harper's time when the rate has a significant consistent drop[48].
Canada needs a wise pragmatic strategically thinking
leader who serves the interest of the general public. Crime, productivity, the
federal deficit, even the share of the House of Commons held by Harper’s
Conservatives; each of these was in better shape when Harper left than when he
started[49].
Harper left office on Nov. 4, 2015, amid a flurry of warnings that were
dismissed as sensationalist, and with a policy record that was enthusiastically
reversed by his Liberal successors. If there is one trait that marks Harper out
above his predecessors, it’s the ability to seem increasingly prescient with
time.
V. How Canada Should Deal with the US in the New World
Order
1. Advocate an Open Strategic Autonomy
1) Proactive and Targeted Diplomacy
- Leverage economic
interdependence by highlighting how deeply integrated supply chains
(especially in critical minerals, energy, power and automotive) make
Canadian products essential, not just imports
- Sub-national
engagement by deepening relationships with U.S. state governors, members
of Congress, and business leaders whose states benefit from cross-border
trade, rather than focusing solely on Washington
- “Team Canada”
Approach by establishing clear, agreed-upon goals among all levels of
government to avoid fragmented responses to U.S. demands
- "Go
viral" with data by using targeted digital and social media campaigns
to reach American audiences with facts about the mutual benefits of trade
2) Economic Defense and Diversification
- Strengthen
CUSMA: Proactively manage the 2026 review of the Canada-United
States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA/USMCA) to reinforce it as a stable and
clear-defined economic framework
- Support domestic
industries by implementing support measures (subsidies, tax breaks) for
Canadian industries, such as manufacturing and agriculture that are heavily
impacted by U.S. tariffs and cutting down on internal trade barriers
- Diversify
trade partners accelerating efforts to increase trade with Asia, Europe,
and Latin America to reduce reliance on the U.S. market
- Prepare targeted
retaliation by developing "hit lists" of U.S. goods for
retaliatory tariffs that strategically target politically sensitive
industries and regions to create pressure within the U.S. on key
policymakers
3) Principled yet Pragmatic Practice
- Maintain a
firm stance on core national interests while being pragmatic about
negotiations
- Create a
"win-win" narrative: offering moderate, symbolic
concessions—such as specific dairy access or energy approvals—in exchange
for long-term tariff exemptions for critical sectors
- Establishing
joint organizations to get around USMCA talks
- Build a
"North America Centre" to provide expert advice and data to
guide Canada’s long-term strategy towards the U.S.
- Reach the
North American Energy Security Pact that could allow for better terms in
trade negotiations
2. Avoid Direct Conflicts with the US, Learning from
Mexico
1) Calm and Careful Communications
When United States President Trump imposed tariffs on
Canada and Mexico in early 2025, the two countries reacted very differently.
Canada led with an “elbows up” campaign involving counter-tariffs and boycotts
of American alcohol.
Mexico, by contrast, struck a more conciliatory tone
and cautiously started to align its trade policy with the U.S. As Canada
prepares for a turbulent 2026, Mexico’s experience offers valuable lessons.
Both Mexico and Canada depend heavily on trade with
the U.S: both send three-quarters of their exports there. The Canada-United
States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) underpins tariff-free access to the U.S. for
most North American goods. But the deal is in jeopardy. The U.S. alleges Mexico
and Canada are being used as trans-shipment hubs for Chinese goods. These
tensions will come to a head in July 2026 when CUSMA is up for review.
Mexico has cleverly navigated trade tensions with the
U.S. while protecting its own values and interests. Mexico’s latest duty
increases up to 50% on Chinese EVs aim to protect domestic industries and
counteract trade imbalances with China. However, to pre-empt American concerns,
Mexico has begun cautiously aligning with U.S. trade policy. As early as 2023,
it pledged to work with the U.S. on foreign investment screening to address
security issues around rising Chinese investment[50].
Though the writer does not want the government to copy Mexico’s practice, its
geniality and amicability to the US may be borrowed.
2) Principled yet Pragmatic Practice
By raising duties only in select sectors, Mexico avoided
putting duties on everyday consumer goods, which have driven up prices in the
U.S. In addition, while the U.S. is imposing tariffs on friends and foes alike,
the Mexican tariffs explicitly exempt countries with which it has free-trade
agreements, supporting its broader trade diversification agenda.
Unlike the U.S. tariffs, which violate international
trade law, Mexico’s measures are also fully consistent with its international
obligations. As a developing country, Mexico committed to higher tariff ceilings
at the World Trade Organization (WTO) than the U.S. This allows it to
unilaterally raise tariffs up to the maximum levels permitted under
international trade law.
Although China has criticized the move, Mexico’s
non-discriminatory application of tariffs to all non-FTA partners avoids
singling out any specific country and appears legal.
It is also superior to alternate ways of aligning with
the U.S. Deals struck by the U.S. with Malaysia and Cambodia committed these
countries to aligning with American import restrictions and export controls
whenever it is in the U.S. national interest, effectively forcing them to forgo
an autonomous trade policy altogether. While the writer may not agree with what
they are doing, alignment (while not harming the others) and agreements may
solve the problem.
Canada should renegotiate its tariff bindings at the
WTO in sectors critical to its industrial base. The European Union, for
example, is preparing to increase its tariffs on imported steel by
renegotiating its bindings at the WTO. This would provide a long-term solution
offering predictability for both the affected Canadian sectors and trading
partners and would be fully lawful.
VI. Conditions for a Stable Global Relationship
Network
1. A Well-Defined Trade Strategy
No matter whether Carney wanted to forge his support during
the difficult times, and no matter whether Trump will continue his presidency,
Canada needs a well-defined trade strategy. The writer compares the present
fight facing Carney to a fight in the warring states era in China, when Qin
took measures to wipe out all countries using a strategy uniting distant allies[51]
and attacking the neighboring states (like Venezuela and Greenland) while the
other states tried hard to unite together to smash Qin’s plot. The core lesson
from the failure of the Vertical Alliance against Qin lies in the Six States' lack
of unity, trust, and a long-term strategy, which led to a loose alliance easily
divided and defeated by Qin's “Horizontal Alliance” strategy. Specific lessons
include: states making big losses by pursuing petty gains (e.g., Han and Wei
repeatedly ceding territory for peace), internal disunity, susceptibility to
Qin's counterintelligence schemes (e.g., Zhao executing Mu Li), and failure to
establish a truly unified command structure against Qin. The deeper lessons
from the failure of the Vertical Alliance against Qin are summarized[52]
as follows: lack of unified core leadership and efficient military mobilization
capabilities; selfishness and mistrust utilized by Qin in dividing and
conquering; short-sighted territorial concessions and compromises (like what is
happening today in Southern America and near the Arctic) not only weakening
themselves but also undermining the alliance's overall.
The key to the success of Qin's “befriend distant
states while attacking nearby ones” strategy (proposed by its Prime Minister Sui
Fan) lay in: dividing and undermining the alliance of the Six States,
concentrating forces to defeat them one by one, combined with lavish bribes,
sowing discord among enemy states' talents, and powerful military pressure. Qin
successfully transformed from a weak state into a powerful one, ultimately
achieving its goal of annexing the Six States. On the contrary, the failure of
the Vertical Alliance stemmed from the inability to achieve mutual benefit due
to self-interest, causing the original strategic advantage to be squandered
through internal strife and compromise.
Therefore, the writer advocates a strategy of unity
and cooperation characteristic of:
- A clear
vision with no illusions
- Not
US-reliant nor China-reliant (but a free trade agreement with China should
not be ruled out as Canada can learn from Australia which has free trade
with both the US and China) but self-reliant
- Long-term
unity of middle powers looking ahead to the future
- Pragmatic and
persistent
- A gradual
shift to an independent economy with trade diversification
2. Based on Mutual Economic Benefits
Friends and enemies may change from time to time, but
principles and interests may be always there. While keeping some of the basic
principles, maintaining the same treatment for the same status in its
framework, Canada may make as many friends as it can to explore mutual benefits
and comparative advantage in international trade.
3. Bound by Political and Diplomatic Equality and
Respect
Canada should respect all countries, whether big or
small, rich, or poor, near or far. Also, Canada needs to walk the talk, and be
able to treat its partners with respect and trust and account for its behavior
consistently.
4. Avoiding Small Blocs Targeting Third Parties
While Canada can join in as many partnerships as it
pleases, the benefits and interests of third parties should not be infringed
on. This is both a respect for all different countries and a safeguarding of
the principle of peaceful coexistence and joint development.
5. Institutional Constraints and Third-Party
Coordination
When Canada and other countries have a dispute, it can
be raised to the bilateral committees. If that is not effective, third parties
can step in to mediate or arbitrate, and some international agreements or
arrangements can be consulted.
6. A Safety Net on the National “Alice Line”
Alice Line is the term that American lower or middle
class people facing some big financial challenges like critical illness, car
accidents may have to face a situation of their living standard dropped
drastically to that of poverty. The National Alice Line means the line that a
country may face contingent on certain triggered events, like high tariffs,
financial crisis due to default loans, etc. The writer is advocating some of
the following:
1) Territory: A Three-Level High-Tech Defense System
2) Finance and Banking: Foreign Currency Exchange and
Loans System (like the 5-year CNY￥200 billion exchange
agreement[53] already
reached between China and Canada)
3) Communications: Emergent Negotiations and Quick
Response System
Let us end this article with some of Carney’s
statements at Dovos[54]
and three of the writer’s:
- If great
powers abandon even the pretense of rules and values for the unhindered
pursuit of their power and interests, the gains from transactionalism will
become harder to replicate.
- When the
rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.
- A world of
fortresses will be poorer, more fragile and less sustainable.
- Hegemons
cannot continually monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify to
hedge against uncertainty. The middle powers must act together because if
we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.
- What does it
mean for middle powers to live the truth? It means acting consistently,
applying the same standards to allies and rivals. Otherwise, we are
keeping the sign in the window. It means creating institutions and
agreements that function as described, and it means reducing the leverage
that enables coercion.
- No one can
rescue you if you want to perish yourself.
- The inner
enemy is bigger than the outer one.
- Opportunities
hide behind the biggest problems.
While it is a must to increase trading with China, it
would be wise to diversify Canada’s trade in terms of both regions and
industries, to build up economic strength by bringing forward more Canadian
product brands, more technology talents and more positive and sustainable
investment, to remove the trade barriers both at home and abroad, to correct the wrong political correctness, and to be able to walk the tight rope between the US and China, other
than just delivering a glamorous beautiful speech). An overall strategy of
IEEU (independence, economy first, equal treatment for the same status and for
each other, and unity of middle powers) would be good for Canada to adjust to
the present situation.
交易与否：毋容置疑（摘要）
——论加拿大对华对美政策及其在新世界秩序中的全球贸易格局
2026年的加拿大经济面临重大挑战，包括“人均”经济衰退导致生活水平下降、住房成本高企、劳动生产率极低等问题，核心症结在于：与美国的贸易紧张关系（含新增关税威胁）、收入增长停滞、家庭债务高企，以及庞大低效的公共部门。加拿大总理近期访华达成多领域协议，涵盖电动汽车进口、油菜籽出口、制造业投资及旅游业等。该协议规定，加拿大取消对中国电动汽车征收关税并逐年提高进口配额。作为交换，中国将降低对加拿大油菜籽等农产品的关税。该协议显然体现了马克·卡尼总理积极寻求非美国贸易伙伴的政策（他承诺到2030年将对华出口提升50%）。不过贸易部长多米尼克·勒布朗表示，加拿大并非在寻求与中国达成自由贸易协定，此举仅为解决具体关税问题。学术界对卡尼在达沃斯论坛的演讲也存在不同看法。有人认为其充满问题且纯属迎合选民；有人指出“国际经济合作本是正和博弈，而这种全新全面战略范式却是零和博弈”；另有人评价道：“谁都没想到，一个温和国家的相对保守的央行行长竟会如此挑衅特朗普”。然而，特朗普威胁征收100%关税更多是一种谈判策略。在联邦检察官对前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔启动刑事调查后，这场直率的达沃斯演讲可被视为对特朗普总统的公开挑战。与中国开展的举措可能提升自由党在联邦选举中的地位，并增强其在议会中的话语权。此外，此举或将唤醒加拿大各省省长，促使他们打破省际间的桎梏（官僚体系、繁文缛节、关税及其他国内贸易壁垒）。当加拿大既无法深化与美国的关系，也无法维持现状时，唯一选择便是实现贸易多元化，摆脱对单一国家的依赖。在这个经济疲软、通胀攀升、关税战升级、地区冲突持续、国际协调日益困难的新时代，我们面临抉择：是固守干瘪的教条与抽象的地缘政治立场，还是聚焦于切实地改善民生？是成为被逼入绝境的盟友，还是追求自主自立、寻求新秩序的独立主权国家？话虽如此，在摆脱旧秩序的过程中仍需谨慎行事，因为这既需要时间也需要努力（而且我们似乎为时已晚）。在追求多元化的同时，加拿大需要将政治与经济分离，尊重透明度原则，在理解、协议和安排的基础上建立信任，保持对彼此权益的相互保障，对敏感领域实施控制限制，参与多边谈判和调解机制，并借鉴墨西哥、阿根廷和澳大利亚与中国打交道的经验。作者还倡导构建国家安全网，包括以下要素：以领土为基础的三层高科技防御体系，以金融为依托的综合性货币兑换与贷款体系，以及以通信为支撑的应急谈判与快速响应机制。作者进一步强调：自取灭亡者无人能救，内患重于外患，最大危机背后往往潜藏着大的机遇。虽然增加对华贸易势在必行，但明智之举是使加拿大贸易在地区和产业层面实现多元化——要付诸行动而非坐井观天，通过推出更多加拿大产品品牌、引进更多科技人才、吸引更多积极可持续的投资来增强经济实力，消除国内外贸易壁垒，纠正错误的政治正确，并在中美之间保持微妙的平衡。采用IEEU（独立自主、经济优先、平等互惠和中等国家团结）的整体战略，将有助于加拿大适应当前局势。
关键词：关税、贸易格局、多样化、生活水平
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[34]
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[38]
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[39]
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[40]
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Momentum in China-Canada Relations Is Hard-Won; We Must Foster the “Four
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[41]
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[46] Tom
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[50]
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[51]
Elizabeth “Liz” Cannon resigned as Executive Director of the Information and
Communications Technology and Services (ICTS) office, created in 2022 to
address supply-chain threats from foreign adversaries. Cannon’s office had
earlier effectively blocked Chinese passenger vehicles from entering the U.S.
market over national security and data privacy concerns. Her departure comes
soon after the Commerce Department dropped proposed restrictions on Chinese
drones, despite fears of remote access and data manipulation. Expected rules on
medium and heavy-duty truck imports (over 10,000 pounds) from China and other
adversaries are also currently on hold. Please check https://x.com/ToolsTech4All/status/2014982155466911825.
[52] During
the Warring States period, why did the alliances formed by various states to
attack Qin often end in failure, while the alliance formed to attack Qi
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[53] Xinhua
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[54]
Sean Boynton: Read the full transcript of Carney’s speech to World Economic
Forum, Global News, 20 January 2026. Check it out on https://globalnews.ca/news/11620877/carney-davos-wef-speech-transcript/.
