Reflections on the 2021 Federal Election 对 2021 年联邦大选的思考

Abstract: Although many people are happy with the disbursements from the Liberal Party, the Conservative Party is still very strong and gaining influence. The top issues Canadians have concerns are: the pandemic management, cost of living, and economic recovery. By voting in the election, the people decide which party wins and which party may be the majority party or there will be no majority party. There are many misconceptions during the election. Some of them are: that immigrants have pushed up housing prices; that rich people should be penalized; that China should be boycotted as it is a threat; and that free universal Pharmacare and universal basic income should be implemented. As to the real estate issue, the property tax relies on the value of the property. Currently, about 70% of Canadians own their own properties. Poor people can resort to social housing or affordable housing, which is segregated from market housing. To curtail speculation, second home buyers may borrow at a higher interest rate when they buy and pay a higher property sales income tax when they sell. Rich people are already taxed at a progressive rate, and a higher penalty could force them out of Canada. China is not a threat as it contributes to economic prosperity, world peace and pollution and pandemic control. China is more open and realistic than India, and China’s economic structure is more complimentary with that of Canada, not with that of Russia, let alone a long history of economic cooperation between the two countries. Presently Canada’s detention of Wanzhou Meng has not been justified, and needs to be addressed promptly. With Canadian relationship with the US deteriorating, Canada needs to engage in a healthy multilateral arrangement and leverage its role on RCEP. Whether you admit it or not, international trade and immigrants are vital to Canada due to comparative advantage and population aging. The government has limited resources, and free universal Pharmacare and universal basic income may have many adverse effects. The government should take measures to retain more graduates from Canadian colleges and universities and keep attracting skilled workers and businessmen to come to Canada. Canada has had several dozens of good years with its abundant resources, hard-working faithful people, wise governance and leadership. Yet Canada needs to define its future objectives and strategies, and wise and accountable leadership is necessary.

 

Key Words: Federal election, multilateral trade, immigrants

 

I. General Introduction

The Federal election on September 20, 2021 is drawing near. According to the three polling firms with daily rolling polls, namely Mainstreet Research, EKOS and Nanos Research, support for the Liberals fell significantly as the week went along while the Conservative Party (CPC) surged ahead. As of 29 August 2021, Nanos has the CPC leading by a modest 2-point margin, whereas EKOS and Mainstreet measure the CPC much further ahead, by 6 and 10 points respectively over the Liberals. Support for the NDP remained generally stable during the week with national support between 19 and 22 per cent[1]. For those looking to get their vote in early, advance polls will be open this year from Sept. 10-13 from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. local time.

 

Saskatchewan has all the MP seats being conservative. However, there are people knocking at the door requesting citizens to elect a Liberal Candidate in the Regina-Wascana riding. Until 2019, Regina Wascana was Saskatchewan’s lone Liberal stronghold[2]. However, Ralph Goodale lost his election to Michael Kram in 2019, and the Liberal candidate competing with Mr. Kram is Sean McEachern, once a special assistant to Mr. Goodale when Mr. Goodale was the federal finance minister. What is interesting in his background is that he has work experience with both the Federal and the provincial government (as SUMA’s director of Policy and Communications for 5 years) besides his experience with non-profit organizations.

 

Well, to be considered for election, the candidate needs to outperform the others. The following questions need to be answered. First, there is the question if his platform meets the citizens’ requirements. It can be seen that Mr. McEachern focuses on community, connection and commitment, while Mr. Kram puts his priorities on secure jobs, secure economy besides accountability, mental health and the country’s essential products and capability to manufacture vaccines, which seems more relevant to the cruel reality. Also, Mr. Kram works as the Deputy Critic for International Trade and a member of the Transportation, Infrastructure and Communities Committee. During the debate in the Regina-Wascana ridingon 14 Sept 2021, McEachern appeared abstract with not a thought-out plan for the pandemic or budget balance in spite of his advocating pipelines and jobs. Lau appeared idealistic, rebellious, and track-minded with the idea that deficits would disappear in time and the top concern should be universal income and Pharmacare, while looking to the future for energy development and advocating the electoral system reform. Mr. Kram appeared realistic, reasonable, confident and empathetic, emphasizing that the pressing concern is the pandemic, that Phamacare is unnecessary as 90% are cared in drugs, that EI sickness benefits would be doubled, that 15% of the federal government properties could be converted into affordable housing, that Canada Health Transfer would be increased at 6% yearly and that carbon emissions would be cut to 30% of the level of 2005 by the year 2030 (with 40-45% proposed by the Liberals and 50% proposed by the NDP)[3]. Regretfully, immigrants and international trade are not stressed in the debate. Secondly, which party should be supported? It can be seen the Liberals’ rating is not bad during the pandemic, and there have been more than 250,000 immigrants consecutively in the past 3 years[4], and this figure is projected to be more than 400,000 annually in the next 3 years[5]. Although many people are happy with the disbursements from the Liberal Party, the Conservative Party is still very strong and gaining influence. However, there seems a reverse trend in the polls as the election day draws nearer, but some would put this as a strategy taken by some of the major media.

 

According to the Navigator, the COVID-19 pandemic was the top concern for Canadians (with 27% of the votes) heading into the federal election campaign, followed by the economy and climate change, according to research provided exclusively to the Star. Many highlight ensuring Canada can make its own vaccines and has an adequate stockpile of personal protective equipment. The Navigator survey also found that 26 per cent of Canadians identified economic issues as the most important facing the country[6]. Earlier, 28% of Canadians surveyed in a Nanos Research poll conducted for CTV News said the economy is their most important policy issue[7]. However, according to Abacus Data, cost of living is the number one issue with voters, according to Abacus’ latest polls. The issue was a Top 10 concern with 62% of voters (7 percentage points higher than 3 days ago), up from 55% during the 2019 election campaign. Access to healthcare is a distant second, with 47% of voters considering it one of their top concerns. Climate change follows with 46% of voters[8]. The writer thinks a winning party should be prepared to address the above mentioned issues. Though the cost of living and economic recovery may be the most urgent as according to Angus Reid Institute, there are 6 percentage points more for those thinking the pandemic has noting at stake or not very much at stake, which indicates that the pandemic may have the tendency to coexist with us for quite a while[9]. However, some people like Mr. Kram still think the pandemic is the most important. As North America is walking into the 4^th wave, Saskatchewan has seen the number of COVID cases higher than ever. Besides Delta and Lambda, the mu variant the virus has a “constellation of mutations that indicate potential properties of immune escape.”[10] With vaccination effects weakened and various variants emerged, medical resources have been swarmed up. It is reported that in Edmonton regional hospitals, 104 of 137 beds for critical illnesses are occupied by COVID patients. Albertans wanted to release their anger through the medical officer Deena Hinshaw, and the provincial government had to hire security guards at the cost of $100, 000 a month to protect her safety. ICU capacity including surge beds is at 86 per cent. Without these surge beds, capacity would be over 155 per cent[11].  In addition to the vaccine passport, Kenney declared a state of public health emergency for the province. Because of the number of patients in Alberta's intensive care units, 90 per cent are unvaccinated. Businesses such as restaurants require Albertans to show a proof of immunization or negative COVID-19 test result from the previous 72 hours to access events and businesses. Starting Sept. 16, all businesses must implement work from home measures unless it is absolutely necessary for employees to be in the workplace. Masking is required for indoor public activities[12]. With about 10 million Canadians unvaccinated against COVID-19, the chances of more widespread lockdowns are possible[13]. As a matter of fact, Sir Andrew Pollard, head of the Oxford Vaccine Group, said on August 10 that herd immunity is “mythical” in relation to the Delta variant – as it still infects vaccinated individuals though the Imperial College London study findings also indicated that fully vaccinated people were about half as likely to test positive after coming into contact with someone who had COVID (3.84%, down from 7.23%)[14]. The side effect for late vaccination could be medical resource misallocation and waste and chances for mass infection with many unvaccinated people getting together for vaccines. In Saskatchewan, the government has canceled many elective surgeries, and it aims to redeploy swaths of staff from across the health-care system to cope with “unprecedented” strain and the new wave driven by the extra-infectious and aggressive Delta variant in the province’s emergency rooms as COVID-19 numbers shatter records[15]. The count of cases has been consistently more than 400 every day since 13 Sept 2021, and the count for Sept 19 and the one for Sept 20 are both over 500[16]. As of 17 Sept 2021, masks are required in SK to be worn in all indoor places until at least Oct. 1, with some exemptions for people under 18 years old as they compete in indoor sporting events. Starting Oct. 1, proof of vaccination or proof of a negative test will be necessary at some businesses, establishments and event venues. When that policy takes effect, the mask mandate is expected to be lifted[17]. Well, if the situation were to develop in a city in China as in SK, many of the provincial and municipal officials including the chief medical officer and the mayor would have to resign, and words of apology would not be enough. The decisiveness, the ability of organizing and mobilizing resources are to be tested. As put by John Gormley and Dr. Kevin, doctors have to watch a video in order to be "qualified" to administer a home test available only to SHA people while US friends have the same technology in their homes, where their families are self-testing[18].

 

Item	AB	SK	QC
Deaths	2577	643	11325
Criticals	217	57	95
Cases/100K	6350	5307	4694

Source: COVID-19 Tracker Canada, 20 Sept 2021, https://covid19tracker.ca/index.html.

 

II. Importance of Participation in the Federal Election

Canada is a democratic country, and the people participate in politics through the election. By voting in the election, the people decide which party wins and which party may be the majority party or there will be no majority party. The ballot casting by minority groups can make a difference by changing the balance of the power. Also, through bills passed or vetoed in the Parliament, immigrants can better integrate into the Canadian society.

 

III. Misconceptions during the Election

1. Foreigners Have Pushed up Housing Prices, and Something Needs to Be Done

According to a report by Fraser Institute, foreign buyers account for respectively 3.4% and 4.8% of the number of properties in Greater Toronto and Metro Vancouver, and 3.0% and 5.1% of the value of properties respectively. The vast majority of housing demand is local, and Canadians can qualify for far larger mortgages than they could in the past with easier access to credit and lower interest rates[19]. Immigrants, for example, owned proportionally fewer single-detached houses than Canadian-born owners in Toronto and Vancouver. Information from the Chinese-based website Juwai.com, estimated that in the first quarter of 2020, Chinese nationals made 26.5 per cent fewer buyer enquiries on Canadian property than in the fourth quarter of 2019. In Toronto, Chinese buyers made 34 per cent fewer enquiries on real estate in the first quarter of 2019[20].

 

Another report shows that 48.6% of cases involved Canadian sourced funds being laundered (with US and China sourced funds accounting for only about 34%), and the recent laundered amount in real estate is about $1 billion. Therefore, the problem is inside Canada[21].

 

2. Government Should Control Housing Prices

There is no logic for the government to suppress the housing market because housing is a key industry which may affect building materials, renovation, maintenance, roads and repair, as well as municipal services. The property tax also relies on the value of the property. Government role should be reflected in taxation and subsidies other than direct intervention if there is no public good or service involved.

 

Currently, about 70% of Canadians own their own properties[22]. Poor people can resort to social housing or affordable housing, which is segregated from market housing. All these mean that the cost of housing purchases is not an issue as big as it seems to be.

 

Direct government intervention may distort the market and may not be effective. Housing speculation can be curtailed through taxation and credit measures, as done in the US. For example, to curtail speculation, second home buyers may borrow at a higher interest rate when they buy and pay a higher property sales income tax when they sell. For foreigners, the measures for domestic second home buyers can be applied to them when they buy their first properties. No credit can be extended to them when they buy a second property.

 

3. The Super-Rich Are Sinful and Need to Be Penalized

The NDP has proposed a wealth tax on the super rich. Anyone whose worth is more than $10 million will be forced to pay one per cent of all of their wealth over that threshold every year. What’s more, the NDP would raise the marginal tax rate to 35 per cent for anyone earning more than $210,000. Further, they propose to increase the tax rate on capital gains to 75 per cent. That would be a big increase from 50 per cent at present[23]. Notice should also be given that this is in addition to the present progressive income tax system.

 

According to Michael Smart, while the poorest have an effective tax rate close to zero, those in the top tax bracket fork over about a third of their income. A BMO report shows, fully 67 per cent of Canada’s millionaires earn their riches themselves, with only 20 per cent claiming they got rich in part because of an inheritance, and the remainder making their money through one off events like divorce settlements or marrying a wealthy spouse. Further, according to the same report, almost half of Canada’s millionaires are either first generation immigrants or have at least one parent who was born outside of Canada and, of this group, 68 per cent say their wealth is self-created. As long as income is earned by hard labor and legally, their interests and rights should be protected. Wealth and high income does not automatically mean sin or evilness.

 

As put by Rupa Subramanya of National Post, the mania for taxing the rich to finance the extravagant spending plans of some parties is a little like killing the golden goose. Punitive taxation on the wealthy will only lead to exit or tax avoidance, possibly both, and will be self-defeating. Although you may get some eggs from the killed goose, but you may not see any more eggs later on. Also, the rich people never lack accountants to help with their taxes.

 

4. China Is a Threat to Canada

1) China Is Not a Threat

When talking about a threat, we naturally think of a danger or nuisance or burden. China posts no danger to other countries as it declares it will not and it does never invade any other country or make any country or region as its colony. Actually, everyone is at panic what to do with Afghanistan after the US army is withdrawn, and the US has to talk with China about dealing with Taliban though China has nothing to do with Taliban. It is declared that Guizhou Province of China was the last province that was removed from extreme poverty in October 2020[24].China is a country with 1.4 billion people, so it may be a problem even to feed such a population, and China has successfully solved that problem. Furthermore, China is the largest exporter of the world in terms of its exports’ share of the world total in 2018[25]. Moreover, high levels of export resilience have afforded China not only a swift export recovery from the pandemic, but also allowed for further gains across a variety of export sectors, even when those sectors have experienced overall decline. As a result, China's share of global trade increased further during 2020, to nearly 15%[26]. Canada is a trade-reliant country, and it needs to trade with China to improve the economy, let alone Chinese experience in controlling the pandemic needs to be learned. As for the human rights issue in Xinjiang, it is hard to imagine what Canada could have done if there was terrorism as in Paris, let alone many large international businesses eyed cotton business there. China solved the problem well, and you can still see many churches are built and foreigners are welcome.

 

2) Need for a Better Relationship with China

Canadian relationship with China has deteriorated since the arrest of Wanzhou Meng, Huawei’s CFO, on December 1, 2018 at the Vancouver International Airport. The case has the following issues: inadequate evidence for fraud; procedure issue during the arrest of Meng; political interference from the US government as declared by President Donald Trump; and the fact that Meng could not be found guilty in Canada so far. The question is: why should Canada retain a woman (who is not head of Huawei) for more than 1000 days just to please the US while she could not be found guilty in Canada? A good solution to Meng’s case may not only improve the Sino-Canada relationship but also enable Canada to leverage its role in RCEP with its more than 30% of global GDP, 27% of global merchandise trade and 19% of world foreign direct investment[27]. As illustrated above, Canada needs to develop a good relationship with China, and this good relationship needs to be even strengthened. Below is why.

 

(1) Dampened Relationship with the US

Canada does not have many strong manufacturers, but Bombardier is one of them. The once industrial conglomerate Bombardier has suffered from both Boeing and the US government with a proposed 300% penalty duty and can no longer regain its strength as the commercial aviation business is sold to Airbus (marking the end of its failed bid to take on the commercial duopoly of Airbus and Boeing Co.) and the train transportation business is sold to Alstom, and the other business is also divided up by US and European companies. Well, the other strength Canada enjoys is its rich oil reserves, and Canada can leverage on it with pipelines built from Canada to the US. The Keystone XL pipeline was expected to carry 830,000 barrels per day of Alberta oil sands crude to Nebraska. Keystone XL was halted by owner TC Energy after U.S. President Joe Biden revoked a key permit needed for a U.S. stretch of the 1,200-mile project[28], within hours of taking his oath of office. Former U.S. President Donald Trump had approved a permit for the line in 2017. Canada supported the US in sending and stationing troops in Afghanistan, but Canada has got nothing except for the 20,000 refugees and the deaths of 158 soldiers[29]. Now Canada is accepting 5,000 Afghan refugees evacuated by the United States, federal officials said on 31 August 2021. They will be accepted as part of the government’s expanded 20,000 Afghan refugee program. However, there are still 1,250 Canadians stuck in the Taliban-ruled country[30]. The question is that whether Canadian lives will be sacrificed to get those refugees in and what priority the government needs to set. Actually, according to Bill Bauer, former member of the Canadian Immigration and Refugee Board, many countries look upon Canada as being a welcoming country for terrorists, war criminals and so on. This may not be a deliberate policy on the part of Canada. It is the result of a series of shortcomings in the system that enables people to slip across the border through any port of entry, establish a case -- particularly those who wish to make a refugee claim -- and then more or less disappear forever. Of the 30,000 refugee claimants arriving in Canada every year, 60 percent of them arriving have either no documents or claim to have no documents or have false documents, and they all stay and they all proceed with their claim[31]. While the US has a very strict screening procedure for those refugees from Afghanistan, Canada has a more lenient way of dealing with them, making it hard for the US to deal with Canadians at the border.

 

Recently, the Biden administration’s surprise decision to share sensitive nuclear submarine technology with Australia brought a swift backlash from China on Thursday, and an angry charge of betrayal from France, which said the secretly negotiated deal reminded it of something President Donald Trump would have done[32].Moreover, the Canadian government was surprised in mid-September by the announcement of a new security pact (which will allow for greater sharing of information in areas such as artificial intelligence and cyber and underwater defense capabilities) called AUKUS between the United States, Britain and Australia, one that excluded Canada and is aimed at confronting China’s growing military and political influence in the Indo-Pacific region, according to senior government officials as they were not consulted or notified[33].

 

(2) Need for Economic Diversification and International Cooperation

Canada’s economy is trade-reliant, with exports and imports each accounting for a third of its GDP according to World Bank[34]. With its oil, potash, advanced technology and technical know-how, countries like China need to be cultivated as a long-term trading partner, let alone trading with China will bring along some neighboring countries with its influence in the third world and in the Asia-Pacific Region.

 

(3) China’s Rising Importance

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the value of Canada's annual merchandise exports decreased 12.4% in 2020. One-third of the gain in exports of farm, fishing and intermediate food products in 2020 was attributable to higher exports to China, which rose 38.0%[35]. China is the only major country in the world that has positive economic and trade growth during the pandemic, and this growth is foreseeable and sustainable. Compared with other countries, China is more open and realistic than India, and China’s economic structure is more complimentary with that of Canada, not with that of Russia.

 

(4) A Good History

Canada has a good history of working with China. Before the US formalized its diplomatic relationship with China, Prime Minister Diefenbaker revitalized western agriculture through wheat sales to China and agricultural reform. Pierre Trudeau was the first to recognize China in the Western world. Chretien led a series of highly publicized “Team Canada” missions to China. Stephen Harper did not attend the Beijing Olympics Games for its human rights issue, yet he led there delegates from provinces and territories, from oil and gas companies, banks and insurance companies, and the trade deal reached to $20 billion[36].

 

(5) Singapore to Follow

Singapore is a very small country, yet its economic performance and international image has rendered it a prestigious position. Canada should try to learn some of its experience like trade orientation, monitored democracy and neutral political position to achieve political stability, economic freedom, diversity and a high standard of living.

 

5. Free universal Pharmacare and universal basic income should be pursued

When we think of implementing a measure, we would want to consider the importance or level of urgent need, the feasibility and the sustainability. First, 90% of the people are already covered in Pharmacare either through themselves or their family members, and there are already programs for low-income people. Secondly there is the issue of source of funds and what to do with other programs like EI or CPP. Guaranteed annual income without affordable housing, universal Pharmacare, childcare, mental health supports, boosting skills training and stronger retirement income security isn’t going to be the panacea people think, as mentioned by a Brookfield Institute fellow. (It’s) just as likely to be a Trojan horse for cuts to other essential programs and leave recipients worse off. It would make the lives of many of the most marginalized and vulnerable citizens worse, particularly if they have a disability or a medical condition such as diabetes. Thirdly, there is the issue of sustainable government revenue within a brewed laying-back culture. Quebec economists warned that the cost to the treasury could be four times higher after the labour market effects are taken into account, due to the decrease in income taxes. Contrary to what is often assumed, guaranteed income schemes may increase poverty rates and the incidence of low-income rather than decrease them[37].

 

During the 1970’s, there was a Mincome program in Dauphin, Manitoba, guaranteeing an annual income of $16,000 per person. However, by 1979, far more families in Dauphin were seeking assistance than the experiment had budgeted for, while the scheme’s payouts were rising with the inflation rate. Soon, both the federal and provincial governments decided that supporting it was no longer viable, and so the experiment was scrapped[38]. The three-year Ontario’s Basic Income Pilot Project started in late 2017 was canceled 10 months later due to high costs, and the fact that "the program didn't help people become 'independent contributors' to the economy”[39]. Well, how about the European countries? On June 5, 2016, Swiss voters rejected by a vote of 76.9% to 23.1% the initiative “For an Unconditional Basic Income.”[40]

 

As for introduction of private companies into the medical care system, the writer thinks it is an effective supplement to the system with much more supply (for example, MRIs provided by private firms have to be matched with one charged and one free) while the service standard can be monitored by the government. Those who wait in line would surely prefer two lines instead of one. Since October 2019, there has been a nine per cent reduction in the number of patients on the MRI waitlist. The 90th percentile wait time was 188 days for MRIs performed in the first quarter of 2021-22 (April to June 2021). As indicated in the graph, this represents an increase of 158 days from Q4 2020-21[41]. The reason for SK to not being able to reduce wait-times recently may have something to do with the pandemic and the availability of medical resources. Actually, according to the report, Waiting Your Turn, the average wait time for patients in SK to receive medically necessary treatment was 19.8 weeks in 2017, the second lowest in Canada, next to ON[42]. In 2018, a fall in wait-times in Saskatchewan (following substantial reforms of its health-care system) allowed Saskatchewan to overtake Ontario and claim the top-spot[43].

 

III. Election Result Forecast

The Liberals have improved their rating during the pandemic, and their immigration policy has gained favor from the immigrants. However, the Conservatives are still very strong, especially in AB and SK. The parties to watch are Bloc Quebecois and NDP as they are the parties that may easily change the balance. The regions to watch are Quebec, Ontario and Alberta. If everything does not change much from 2019, the Liberals may still have a minority party.

 

If the Conservatives want to win, they may have to win over young people and some leaning to the left. They should think of ways to increase jobs, training and mentoring for the young people instead of cash disbursement and free-stuff giving away due to both the limit of financial resources, government functions and the possibility of corruption. Also, they can look to Bloc Quebecois and the People’s Party for support.

 

If the Liberals want to win, they may have to win over immigrants and some right-leaning people. However, the likelihood for them to unite with NDP has become obscure as the Liberals want to become the majority in spite of their common ideology and occasional cooperation. There might be a good chance for them to make an alliance with the Green Party.

 

The possibility to have a majority Liberal Party or a minority Conservative Party may be small, yet there can be odds out of expectation. However, if the Liberal Party has got a minority again, there can be a reshuffle of the leaders of all the three major parties[44].

 

IV. Suggested Measures for the New Government

1. An Open Attitude in International Relations

Whether you admit it or not, international trade and immigrants are vital to Canada due to comparative advantage and population aging. The government should take measures to retain more graduates from Canadian colleges and universities and keep attracting skilled workers and businessmen to come to Canada.

 

2. A Good Rewarding System to Produce a Beneficial Cycle

A good recruitment standard and rewarding system should be able to reward the hard-working and good performers but punish those lazy and undisciplined workers. The laying-back culture during the pandemic should not be encouraged as equity and efficiency will be compromised. Equality is a principle, but it is not a base to start from, as normal people cannot be equal to handicapped people, and native Canadians cannot be equal to new immigrants. Efficiency and effectiveness should be the purpose, so more competition is needed, and more introductions of technical know-how and advanced technology, expertise should be promoted and rewarded as that is the trend and future. Moreover, the government should bear in mind that normal businesses and individuals should be welcome as a positive member in the system both to not rely on the government but also help the government. For example, in late January of this year the City Council of New York passed legislation that gradually lifts decades-old caps on street vendor licenses[45], an act which can phrase out the underground market and get people to earn their decent living.

 

3. Balance of Equity and Inflation

Canada’s net debt is now over $1 trillion, and this debt is growing at the rate of $424 million per day[46]. Though many people are happy to receive government transfers during the pandemic, but they are not aware they will bear the consequences for the future, higher prices and higher taxes. With reduced purchasing power, the Canadians will fare worse than before, let alone inflation expectation may trigger a vicious cycle of price increases. The government needs to have a balanced budget both to make the economy more sustainable and to create more room for governance.

 

V. Conclusion

Canada has had several dozens of good years with its abundant resources, hard-working faithful people, wise governance and leadership. However, Canada cannot lay on its back as the situation is different. There is urgency for wise decision-making based on sufficient correct information, and there is a need for more friends other than enemies. Hopefully, by election we will have known our direction better.

 

对 2021 年联邦选举的思考

摘要：虽然很多人对自由党的拨款感到高兴，但保守党仍然非常强大，影响力也越来越大。加拿大人最关心的问题是：流行病管理、生活成本和经济复苏。通过在选举中投票，人民决定哪个政党获胜，哪个政党可能是多数党，或者没有多数党。选举期间存在许多误解。其中一些是：移民推高了房价；富人应该受到惩罚；和中国应该被抵制，因为它是一种威胁。至于房地产问题，房产税取决于房产的价值。目前，大约 70% 的加拿大人拥有自己的房产。穷人可以求助于不受市场住房影响的社会住房或经济租住房。为抑制投机，二手房买家在购买时可以更高的利率借款，并在出售时支付更高的房产销售所得税。富人已经按累进税率征税，更高的罚款可能会迫使他们离开加拿大。中国不是威胁，因为它为经济繁荣、世界和平、污染和流行病控制做出了贡献。中国比印度更开放、更现实，中国的经济结构与加拿大而不是俄罗斯的互补性更强，更不用说两国经济合作有着悠久的历史。到目前为止加拿大对孟晚舟的拘留没有发现有正当理由，需要尽快解决。随着加拿大与美国的关系恶化，加拿大需要参与一个健康的多边安排，并在RCEP中发挥作用。不管你承认与否，由于比较优势和人口老龄化，国际贸易和移民对加拿大至关重要。联邦政府资源有限，而免费的药品计划以及最低保障收入计划可能会带来很多逆向效应。政府应采取措施留住更多加拿大高校毕业生，继续吸引技工和投资移民来加拿大。加拿大凭借其丰富的资源、勤劳忠诚的人民、明智的治理和领导，度过了几十年的美好时光。然而，加拿大需要确定其未来的目标和战略，并且确定明智和负责任的领导人。

 

关键词：联邦选举、多边贸易、移民

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[1] Philippe J. Fournier: 338Canada: The Conservatives surge, the Liberals slide, MacLean’s, 29 August 2021. Please take time to read the comprehensive article by clicking the following link: https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/338canada-the-conservatives-surge-the-liberals-slide/.

[2] Sarah Hussein: Canada Election: Regina Wascana, Global News, 15 August 2021. Please check https://globalnews.ca/news/7931294/canada-election-regina-wascana-2021/.

[3] Canada’s 2021 federal election platform guide: compare where the parties stand on top issues, the Globe and Mail, 16 Sept 2021, check the following website for the whole article https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-federal-election-20210-party-plaform-guide/.

[4] Lucie Jeudi: Number of Immigrant in Canada 2000-2020, Statistica 2021, 6 July 2021. Please check https://www.statista.com/statistics/443063/number-of-immigrants-in-canada/.

[5] Kareem El-Assal and Shelby Thevenot: Canada to Target over 400,000 Immigrants per Year, CIC News, 30 October 2020. Please check the following website for the whole article https://www.cicnews.com/2020/10/canada-to-release-2021-2023-immigration-levels-plan-1016133.html#gs.9nv5mg.

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