To Deal or Not to Deal: There Should Be No Doubt about It (交易与否：毋容置疑)

-          On Canada’s China & US Policy and Its Global Trade Pattern in the New World Order

(Picture by Sean Kilpatrick/AP)

Abstract: Canada's economy in 2026 faces significant challenges, including a "per capita" recession with falling living standards, high housing costs, and critical low labor productivity with key issues including trade tensions with the U.S. (including new tariff threats), stagnant income growth, high household debt, and a large inefficient and ineffective public sector. Canadian Prime Minister has recently visited China and achieved broad-ranged agreements encompassing EV imports, canola exports, manufacturing investment, tourism, etc. The deal with China drops Canada's levies on Chinese EVs with increasing quotas for cars imported each year in exchange for low tariffs levied on Canadian canola seeds and other agricultural products by China. The deal appears to be a clear example of Prime Minister Mark Carney's aggressive pursuit of non-U.S. trade partners for Canada (he pledged a 50 per cent boost in exports to China by 2030). Nevertheless, Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said that Canada is not pursuing a free trade deal with China, and it was just meant to resolve specific tariff issues. The academia also have varied views regarding Carney’s Davos speech. Some think it highly problematic and just appealing to the electorate; some say “international economic cooperation is positive sum, and this new full-on strategic paradigm is zero sum”; others say “no one expected a relatively conservative central banker from a generally genial country to stick a finger in Trump’s eye”. However, Trump's threat of a 100% tariff is more or less a bargaining technique. The blunt Davos speech may be regarded as an open challenge to President Trump after Federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into the former Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. The China move may enhance the liberals standing in the Federal election and strengthen their voice at the Parliament. Also, this may wake up the Canadian premiers to shatter off the shackles (the bureaucracy, red tape, duties and other domestic trade barriers) among different provinces. While Canada cannot deepen the relationship with the US, nor keep the status quo, the only option is trade diversity with no dependence on a single country. In this new era marked by economic weakness, higher inflation rates, escalating tariff wars, persistent regional conflicts, and increasingly difficult international coordination, the question arises: should we cling to dry hollow dogma and abstract geopolitical stances, or focus on tangible improvements in people's living standards? Should we be an ally backed into a corner, or an independent sovereign nation pursuing autonomy and self-reliance to seek a new order? That being said, cautions should be made while we shift away from the old order as it takes both time and efforts (and that it appears that we acted too late to do that). While pursuing diversification, Canada needs to separate the politics and the economy, respect the rule of transparency, establish trust based on understanding, agreements and arrangements, maintain mutual safeguarding of rights and interests, exert restrictions of control in sensitive sectors, participate in multilateral negotiation and mediation mechanisms and learn from Mexico, Argentine and Australia in their experiences with China. The author also advocates a national safety net composed of some of the following: a three-level high-tech defense system in terms of the territory, a comprehensive currency exchange and loans system in terms of finance and an emergent negotiations and quick response system in terms of communications. The author further emphasizes: No one can rescue you if you want to perish yourself. The inner enemy is bigger than the outer one. Opportunities hide behind the biggest problems. While it is a must to increase trading with China, it would be wise to diversify Canada’s trade in terms of both regions and industries, to walk the talk instead of sitting on the couch, to build up economic strength by bringing forward more Canadian product brands, more technology talents and more positive and sustainable investment, to remove the trade barriers at home and get around the ones abroad, to correct the wrong political correctness, and to be able to walk the tight rope between the US and China. An overall strategy of IEEU (independence, economy first, equal treatment for the same status and for each other, and unity of middle powers) would be good for Canada to adjust to the present situation.

Key Words: Tariffs, Trade Pattern, Diversity, Living Standards

In this new era marked by economic weakness, higher inflation rates, escalating tariff wars, persistent regional conflicts, and increasingly difficult international coordination, the question arises: Should we cling to the dry hollow dogma and abstract geopolitical stances, or focus on tangible improvements in people's living standards? Should we be an ally backed into a corner, or an independent sovereign nation pursuing autonomy and self-reliance to seek a new order? That being said, cautions should be made while we shift away from the old order as it takes both time and efforts and that it appears that we acted too late to do that. Canadian Prime Minister has recently visited China and achieved broad-ranged agreements (including the Joint Statement of the China-Canada Leaders’ Meeting as well as the China-Canada Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap) encompassing EV imports, canola exports, manufacturing investment, tourism, etc. The deal with China drops Canada's levies on Chinese EVs from 100% to 6.1% for the first 49,000 vehicles imported each year. That quota could rise, Carney said, reaching 70,000 in half a decade. In exchange, China will cut tariffs on Canadian canola seed to around 15% by 1 March, down from the current rate of 84%[1]. Carney said Beijing had also committed to removing tariffs on Canadian canola meal, lobsters, crabs and peas "until at least the end of the year".

Carney himself said the deal between the two reflected the need for cooperation and partnership in a more “divided and fragmented” world. The trip symbolized that countries are operating in a “new world order”. Xi hailed a “turnaround” in China-Canada ties since he met Carney at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea in 2025[2]. The deal appears to be a clear example of Prime Minister Mark Carney's aggressive pursuit of non-U.S. trade partners for Canada (he pledged a 50 per cent boost in exports to China by 2030). A news release from the Prime Minister's Office says Canada is expecting new deals signed on the trip will help resolve long-standing trade barriers in the agricultural sector, "from beef to pet food" - Canadian exports that have been banned from China for years. Presently China is Canada's second-largest trading partner. Canadian merchandise exports to China totalled $30 billion in 2024, while imports from China stood at $88.9 billion[3].

While this is applauded by many Canadians, the Conservative Party and Ontario have criticized this move. The federal NDP liked it. U.S. President Donald Trump initially expressed support for the deal, and several days later he posted on social media that 100% tariff (possibility to be addressed later in the article) could be levied to Canada. Another administration official said Canada would "surely regret" its decision[4]. The academia also have varied views regarding Carney’s Davos speech. Some think it highly problematic and just appealing to the electorate; some say “international economic cooperation is positive sum, and this new full-on strategic paradigm is zero sum”; others say “no one expected a relatively conservative central banker from a generally genial country to stick a finger in Trump’s eye”[5]. Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Monday he spoke with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and told him that Canada is not pursuing a free trade deal with China. He also said the agreement with China is meant to resolve specific tariff issues, similar to action taken by the U.S. government last year on soybeans[6]. This article will explore why Canada needs to change course, but will the government be able to maneuver the boat of Canada in the storm of international tariffs and uncertainty towards a safe harbor? It takes both courage and wisdom, both strategy and tact to handle this situation.

 

I. Problems Canada is Now Facing

Canada's economy in 2026 faces significant challenges, including a "per capita" recession with falling living standards, high housing costs, and critical low labor productivity, according to analysis by the Fraser Institute. Key issues include trade tensions with the U.S. (including new tariff threats), stagnant income growth, high household debt, and a large, less productive public sector.

1. Trade Tensions and U.S. Dependence

The shift in U.S. trade policy towards protectionism has led to uncertainty, with threats of tariffs on key exports (steel, aluminum, automobiles) weakening economic activity. In general, Canadian businesses will expect a 35% tariff on most goods[7], shown by the following:

• Wood Products & Furniture: Starting January 1, 2026, the U.S. increased tariffs to 30% on certain upholstered wooden furniture and 50% on kitchen cabinets and vanities from countries without a specific trade deal.
• Steel, Aluminum, and Copper: Following the 2025 escalations, 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum remained in place, and 50% tariffs on copper were imposed.
• General Merchandise: A 35% tariff applies to various non-CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) compliant goods.
• Low-Value Shipments: The U.S. has eliminated the "de minimis" exemption for low-value shipments (under $800), meaning more Canadian goods face inspection and duties.

2. Deteriorating Living Standards

Despite some population growth, Canada has experienced a decline in per-capita GDP, indicating a shrinking economy on an individual basis. While some market rebalancing is occurring, housing remains severely unaffordable for many. Disposable income falls, with lower-and-middle-income earners showing higher rates of debt delinquency. Job growth is failing to keep pace with rapid population growth, causing unemployment to rise. However, a growing reliance on the public sector, which has lower productivity than the private sector, along with infrastructure gaps, is hindering overall economic growth[8].

The standard of living of the average Canadian declined over the 2020-to-2024 period as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per person decreased by 2.0% (0.4% annually), the worst five-year decline since the Great Depression. This decline in the Canadian living standard took place despite aggregate GDP growth of 1.5% over the period[9]. Canada’s capital-to-labour ratio declined sharply over this period. In other words, the average worker in Canada had less machinery and equipment to work with, which, in turn, lowered productivity。All of this was resulted from weaker business investment and higher levels of immigrants.

A new report from Rosenberg Research, Canadian Economy on Life Support, shows that despite interest rate cuts from a high of five per cent in 2024, per capita GDP is still falling, and the economy is growing at only one per cent annually. Moreover, the housing and manufacturing sectors are struggling with home prices down two per cent year-over-year. Manufacturing, which heavily relies on U.S. trade, is down five percent[10].

As a similar country in industrial structure and population size, Australia fares much better in terms of the per capita GDP, per capita debt, and productivity[11].

3. Low Productivity & Business Investment

Canada suffers from a long-term, "emergency-level" decline in labor productivity. This is exacerbated by low business investment in research and development, as well as a shortage of talents due to a brain drain and blind immigration emphasizing the quantity not the quality.

These interconnected issues have prompted warnings that Canada's economic momentum has faded, requiring a significant shift in policy to restore growth and competitiveness.

 

II. Economic Structure Choices

1. Maintain the Status Quo

Many things have changed, and the status quo cannot be kept as we have entered in an era of changes and uncertainty due to the following:

• Changeable tariffs threated from hegemons
• Regional wars and disputes
• Large inflow of diversified immigrants and refugees
• Rising role of labor unions and higher and higher cost of living

 

2. Dependence on the United States

1) The Pros

Deepened USMCA Ties

USMCA is a later version of NAFTA. However, it is in jeopardy with uncertain moves of the present Trump administration. Carney said on this, you cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.

The Weight in Trade with the US

US Trade Figures with Different Countries 2024-2025 in Billions of US Dollars Export Import 2025 2024 % Increase 2025 2024 % Increase China 97.92 143.23 -31.63 287.28 438.74 -34.52 Canada 310.04 349.91 -11.39 351.19 411.89 -14.76 EU 380.30 369.79 2.84 585.26 605.66 -3.37 Source: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html; https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c1220.html; https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0003.html.

Above is the trade figures of the US with China, Canada and EU, which shows EU has a larger share. As far as some specific products like auto parts are concerned, Mexico consolidated its position as the leading supplier of auto parts to the United States in 2025, accounting for 46.2% of total US auto parts imports—the highest share ever recorded—according to data from Mexico’s National Auto Parts Industry association (INA). Canada (about one-third of Mexico’s size), Brazil, China, and Germany follow as secondary markets at a considerable distance. This shows that US has the potential to increase its trading volume with Canada[12].

Need for Coalition

The EU now says they're pausing for 90 days on retaliatory tariffs so they can negotiate. Mexico hasn't retaliated. Japan, S. Korea and Vietnam are in talks to come to some arrangement[13]. Pushing back was necessary. But there will be more strength in remaining a united front.

Rule-based

Originally, a rule-based society is one in order and harmony. With rules and measures in place, things could be easier. This has worked out well in the old order. While the rules are still there, those who interpret or make the rules want to change. Therefore, when rules cannot protect you, you have to protect yourself.

A Relatively Long Brethren History

Canadians pride themselves on generosity and kindness, and they were taught in school how they fought alongside Americans in both world wars, how when 9/11 happened Canadians housed 33,000 passengers in Gander, Halifax and other places[14], invited them into their homes, fed them, calmed them and welcomed them with open arms, how when the flood came in Florida and New Orleans they sent linen and first responders, and how when the wildfires happened in California they sent firefighters and water bombers. When the US went to war in Iraq and Afghanistan, Canadians lost a lot of soldiers there as well.

 

2) The Cons

    Hegemony

French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday said Europe would not give in to bullies or be intimidated, in a scathing criticism of U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose steep tariffs if Europe does not let him take over Greenland. "We do prefer respect to bullies," Macron said. "And we do prefer rule of law to brutality." U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened 200 per cent tariffs on French wines over the country’s refusal to join his so-called ‘Board of Peace’ for Gaza. Canada has expressed support for the board in principle, but refuses to pay the $1 billion US entry fee[15]. Recently Trump said that Macron might not be the French president any longer.

While Trump threatens with a 100% tariff on Canada, it is more or less a technique used to bargain with Canada, due to the following: a) Canadian goods are known for their fast delivery, low cost and stable supply, and tariffs may urge the US to look for replacement sources which may increase the logistics cost, lengthen the production cycle, boost up the price for food, raw materials and energies. b) The US government may have to increase subsidies to some businesses so that government deficits may rise again. c) Businesses and consumers may complain on cost hikes and shortage of supply, and Trump may lose some of his firm supporters. 4) Eastern American states rely heavily on Ontario for its electricity supply. It is said that presently 20 American states are hit by a severe storm, and an electricity cut-off may be vital to the US. 

In May of 2025, Canada’s exports to the US accounts 68.3% of the total exports while the average monthly ratio in 2024 is 75.9%, and Canada’s imports from the US are also dropping consecutively for several months, symbolizing the decoupling of Canada from the US[16].

The outgoing Canadian ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman says a “loss in trust” among Canadians with regard to the country’s relationship with the United States won’t be easy to undo. “I think the Canada-U.S. relationship has changed and will not go back to what it was, at least for a very long time, if ever,” Hillman said in an interview with The West Block guest host Jackson Proskow. “There are some foundational aspects of our relationship with the United States and the U.S.’s relationship with the world that are being questioned now in ways that they weren’t in the first term,” she said[17].

As mentioned by Carney, over the past two decades, a series of crises in finance, health, energy and geopolitics have laid bare the risks of extreme global integration. But more recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited. Carney further urged, middle powers should “stop invoking rules-based international order as though it still functions as advertised. Call it what it is: a system of intensifying great power rivalry where the most powerful pursue their interests using economic integration as coercion.” “When middle powers criticize economic intimidation from one direction but stay silent when it comes from another, we are keeping the sign in the window. It means building what we claim to believe in, rather than waiting for the old order to be restored. It means creating institutions and agreements that function as described, and it means reducing the leverage that enables coercion.” “And diversification internationally is not just economic prudence; it’s a material foundation for honest foreign policy, because countries earn the right to principled stands by reducing their vulnerability to retaliation.”[18]

Immigration Policies

Canada is an immigrant country, with immigrants coming steadily every year. However, under the Trump administration, many immigrant categories have been removed, and a wall is being built between the US and Mexico.

Healthcare System Differences

Canada is proud to have its famous free medical care system which the world is trying to copy, while in the US, when residents get ill, a big bill will be waiting for them.

Foreign Policy Orientation

In the world, Canada is well-known for its loving of peace and a green environment, while the US is withdrawing from many international agreements and keeps active in Iraq, Afghanistan, and now even Venezuela and Greenland.

 

3. Diversified Trade Pattern with More Interactions with China

1) The Cons

     Ideology Conflict (in terms of values, principles, morale)

China is regarded for some time as an old civilization authoritarian, undemocratic, and uneasy to deal with. There are also all sorts of questions about the extent to which China can actually become more integrated into Canada—not least because Canada has been one of the sharp tips of the spear, along with Australia and a couple of other countries—in being fairly confrontational against China over the last couple of years. The Chinese aren’t going to forget that, and no Canadian can forget that China detained two hostages as part of the drama over Huawei. So, these things aren’t easily put to bed[19].

However, China has made great progresses to remove poverty, to attain a zero emission society, and to be more transparent and more open to the outside world. On the contrary, some hegemons are seen to be more and more aggressive and infringing on others’ benefits unscrupulously, while advertising their freedom and democracy principles.

On the one hand, Canada needs to be principled. Carney said, aim to “be principled in our commitment to fundamental values, sovereignty, territorial integrity, the prohibition of the use of force except when consistent with the UN Charter and respect for human rights.”[20]

On the other hand, Canada should be pragmatic when need arises as not every partner shares the same values or interest. Should Canada hold onto the dry hollow dogma, abstract geopolitical stances and adhere to the ruptured old order? Should it focus more of its attention to the livelihood of the people and prevent the farmers from going bankrupt, the shelf prices from skyrocketing, the jobs from being deprived, the healthcare from deteriorating and the housing units from being less affordable and accessible?

 

     U.S. Influence

Canada's economy is more dependent on the US; a trade disruption with the U.S. would severely impact Canadian jobs and GDP, with limited scope for retaliation without significant self-harm, according to Econofact and LinkedIn. The U.S. accounts for about 78% of Canada's exports, with substantial daily trade volumes supporting millions of jobs in both countries, particularly in manufacturing, energy (oil, gas), and machinery. In the energy sector, Canada is the U.S.'s single largest foreign supplier of energy, including crude oil and natural gas, according to Global Affairs Canada and Scotiabank. According to Statistics Canada, the U.S. is the largest source of direct investment in Canada, while Canada is the second-largest investor in the U.S., highlighting intertwined financial links. However, the U.S. trade deficit with Canada was 1/8 the size of China’s and 1/5 that of Mexico. U.S. trade deficit with Canada is the second lowest among trading partners[21]. This shows that the US is not relying much on Canada in trade.

 “Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements,” Trump said Wednesday, while delivering his own speech in Davos. Rebuffing that assertion, Carney said “Canada and the United States have built a remarkable partnership in the economy, in security, and in rich cultural exchange. But Canada doesn’t live because of the United States.” ”In a time of rising walls and thickening borders, we can demonstrate how a country can be both open and secure, welcoming and strong, principled and powerful,” the prime minister said[22]. Trump posted on Truth Social Saturday that Canada could face a 100 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods entering the U.S. if Prime Minister Mark Carney “makes a deal with China.” He said, “China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of their businesses, social fabric and general way of life.” Matthew Holmes, executive vice-president, international and chief public policy officer at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, told CTV News Channel on Saturday that given the depth of the trade relationship between the two countries, the impact of tariffs would be significant. “About 75 per cent of our exports go to the U.S., and we wouldn’t stop exporting. They would just be more expensive, and they would largely be more expensive for the American consumer and American businesses,” Holmes said. “We have supply chains that rely on both parts of that border working and being porous and allowing the movement of people and goods to continue, and if that stops, or gets harder or more expensive, the costs will be borne on both sides of the border.”[23]

Talking about China, Brian Kingston, President and CEO of the Canadian Automobile Manufacturers Association, stated unequivocally: We don't need Chinese EVs, but China does need Canadian agricultural exports." He warned that allowing Chinese EVs into the Canadian market would not only undermine the domestic auto industry but could also damage relations with the United States, a key trading partner. In fact, the U.S. maintains a hardline stance against Chinese EVs entering the North American market, placing Canada in a difficult position during negotiations. On one hand, Canada needs to ease trade tensions with China; while on the other hand, it must safeguard its core interests with the United States[24].

With his background and past work experiences, Carney’s blunt Davos speech may be regarded as an open challenge to President Trump after Federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell[25]. This may increase his chances of obtaining a majority vote if there is a confidence poll. Also, this may wake up the Canadian premiers to shatter off the chains (the bureaucracy, red tape, duties and other domestic trade barriers) among different provinces. As a matter of fact, a research paper from Queen’s University underscores a startling reality: interprovincial trade barriers are potentially as costly as a 7% tariff on goods crossing provincial lines, inflating consumer prices by an estimated 7.8% to 14.5%. This artificial inflation stifles competition, hampers innovation, and curtails economic growth[26]. The authors estimate that dismantling these barriers could boost Canada’s GDP by up to $161 billion annually, or an additional $2,300 to $4,000 per Canadian per year. According to an IMF estimate, cross-province service barriers are responsible for much of the tariff, as high as 40 per cent in sectors such as health care and education. Reducing or eliminating barriers in finance, transport and telecommunications would make it easier to open and expand a business, increase the movement of labour and support investment in high-productivity activities. Stripping away interprovincial trade barriers would boost Canada’s economy by about seven per cent per year, or $210 billion[27], and this would be the gift that keeps on giving because it will come from increased productivity, better competition and more efficient use of capital and labour.

 

    Lack of Shared Multilateral Consultation and Mediation Mechanisms

Except for the UN, IMF, World Bank, APEC, G20, and WTO, China have very few organizations that could be used as a platform to negotiate or mediate with Canada.

The writer would like to emphasize that the China move is a must (meaning we have to concentrate on what we can do instead of what we want to do) due to the following:

• A demand from Canadians for improvement of living standards
• A necessity to be more independent  due to bullying and uncertainty from the US side
• An ongoing trend for multi-polarity (which may be achieved by unity of middle powers instead of big powers meddling in other parts of the world like Venezuela or Greenland)
• A changed Canadian public opinion on China with the majority supporting more trade with China in spite of its human rights issue[28].

2) The Pros

      A Strategic Move

What should be interpretation of the world? Is it a world where democracies cooperate or a world where power is the only currency, a world that agreements mean something or a world that friends are treated like enemies? When patients shout at you, would you shout back? When you are bullied at school, would you tell the teacher, tolerate and keep quiet or fight back yourself or at least show some muscles? Canada is now at such a moment that it has to make some changes.

      Room for Improvement

Coal and petroleum oil are the primary energy products exported to China, though together these account for only a small fraction of China’s total energy imports. Instead, Russia, Malaysia, Iraq and several Gulf states are China’s principal international energy suppliers.

      Structural Complementation

Canada’s vast natural resource wealth (minerals, metals, forest products) directly supports China’s massive manufacturing sector. China is a major importer of Canadian wood pulp, minerals, and energy products. Also, China is a vital market for Canadian agriculture, particularly for products like canola seed, beef, pork, and seafood. Canada’s strengths in aerospace technology and training complement China's rapidly expanding aviation and infrastructure sectors. Canadian expertise in clean technology and environmental services can also be used in Chinese EVs and other products. As China’s population is aging, demand for intermediate goods used in residential construction and food manufacturing, including oil seeds, animal feed and cereals may increase.

     Introduction of Chinese Investment and Know-How in the Manufacturing Industry

A joint venture between Canada and a Chinese partner could, if done right, help to bring Chinese technology and know-how to Canada’s manufacturing base. Learning from China would be a major boon to Canadian industrial strategy. In industrial policy, selective exposure to Canada’s best competitors is helpful. It enables domestic manufacturers to be disciplined. Unrestricted exposure could wipe out domestic gains, but some competition from low-cost, high-quality importers forces producers to raise their game and learn. This drives innovation and productivity. Also, by combining selective market exposure with potential joint ventures, Canada is borrowing from the playbook that built China’s own manufacturing prowess[29].

III. Why Canada Must Change Course

1. Demands for Improved Living Standards

Canadians who did not have confidence in the country’s Parliament shot up near the end of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s tenure in office, when 40 percent of Canadians gave it a confidence rating of one or two out of five in the last quarter of 2024, according to new Statistics Canada data. Alberta saw its citizens’ confidence wane from 26 percent in 2022 to 22.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. Saskatchewanites’ confidence in Parliament over the same time period dropped the most, at over 10 percentage points, from 31.1 percent to 21 percent[30].

Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a slate of measures aimed to help Canadians cope with the increasing cost of living. Ottawa’s new food affordability measures will help low- and modest-income people living in Saskatchewan, but more still needs to be done, according to an anti-poverty group. The rising cost of living is driving more people to the food bank, with one in 10 Reginans using the service each year[31].

2. Trump 2.0 and Neo-Monroe Doctrine (Criminal charges against Powell earlier this year)

Since taking office for a second time last year, Trump has imposed tariffs on Canadian sectors like metals and automotives, which has led to swirling economic uncertainty. He has also threatened to rip up a longstanding North American free trade agreement between Canada, the US and Mexico, calling it "irrelevant". Miller of the Rideau Potomac Strategy Group told the BBC, "there's a reasonable chance that we could end up in 2026 without a meaningful, workable trade deal with the United States." "And Canada needs to be prepared."[32]

As put by Mark Carney, “our view is the middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.”[33]

3. U.S. Realism in International Politics

This can be shown by US continuing soybean and chip exports to China while applying double standards to allies.

4. Post-Alliance Era: Political Multilateralism and Economic Realism

According to Mark Carney, big powers “have the market size, the military capacity and the leverage to dictate terms. Middle powers do not. But when we only negotiate bilaterally with a hegemon, we negotiate from weakness. We accept what’s offered. We compete with each other to be the most accommodating.” “This is not sovereignty. It’s the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination. In a world of great power rivalry, the countries in between have a choice: compete with each other for favour, or combine to create a third path with impact.”[34]

 

IV. How to Improve

1. Separation of Politics from Economy

Canada and the US share many of the same values and principles, yet the relationship has become more and more rigid. Argentine is an open democratic country, yet it has a very good trade and investment relationship with China.  Australia, has a free trade deal with both China and the US. Thus, it is not the ideology that is in the way. Carney told reporters that "the world has changed" in recent years, and the progress made with China sets Canada up "well for the new world order". Canada's relationship with China, he added, had become "more predictable" than its relationship with the US under the Trump administration. He later wrote, in a social media post, that Canada was "recalibrating" its relationship with China, "strategically, pragmatically, and decisively".

That being said, Canada still needs to have a sense of identity. In a 2015 interview with The New York Times Magazine, Justin Trudeau stated, "There is no core identity, no mainstream in Canada". He described Canada as the "first postnational state," suggesting that shared values like openness and respect define the country, rather than a specific cultural, linguistic, or historical core[35]. Critics argued this approach undermines Canadian culture, ignores the need for integration, and improperly suggests that national cohesion is not important, as noted by the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

2. Trust Based on Understanding, Agreements and Arrangements

Political mutual trust is the core in international diplomatic relationships. Though China and Canada have different national conditions, both should respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, respect each other's chosen political systems and development paths, respect and protect the normal business transactions between the two countries, and adhere to the correct way for countries to maintain a friendly relationship and promote mutual thriving and prosperity. As a matter of fact, Meng was arrested to conform to the US request, while Canada was not getting better treatment from the US, Canada got a winter in the Sino-Canada relationship. Also, immediately after Carney met Xi in Gyeongju of Korea stating that Canada wanted to restart bilateral cooperation and make up for lost time[36], Canadian navy joined the Philippines in the Southern China Sea in a joint naval exercise, with China as the imaginary enemy. This appears disrespectful, inconsistent as well as immature. China has expressed strong opposition to joint naval exercises and security pacts between Western nations (including Canada) and Southeast Asian partners in the region, viewing them as attempts to provoke tension and interfere in regional affairs under the guise of "freedom of navigation" or efforts to contain China.

3. Transparency

The trade cooperation roadmap says both countries vow to improve "the transparency for foreign investments in accordance with their domestic legal frameworks." Vina Nadjibulla of Asia Pacific Foundation said that could inform how Canada navigates talks on the continental trade deal while managing Washington's concerns about China.

4. Mutual Safeguarding of Rights and Interests

Vina Nadjibulla was also worried that China could use trade as a way of coercion[37], and some other people also mentioned trade and investment being used as political leverage. Therefore, rights and interests need to be protected, and a system needs to be in place. However, Canada and China have a lot in common. As influential nations in the Asia-Pacific region and as well in the world, both China and Canada are defenders of multilateralism and free trade, sharing common positions on many international issues. During Carney's visit, China expressed willingness to enhance communication and coordination with Canada within frameworks such as the United Nations, G20, and APEC to jointly address global challenges and jointly safeguard world peace and stability. For both China and Canada, 2026 will be an extraordinary year. This year marks the beginning of China's 15th Five-Year Plan, while Canada will implement its new budget. Both countries face the important tasks of economic development and improving people's livelihood. Enhancing mutual trust and deepening cooperation between China and Canada not only serves the common interests of both sides but also contributes to world peace, stability, development, and prosperity[38].

5. Restrictions on Control over Sensitive Key Industries

Ontario Premier Doug Ford slammed the EV tariff relief in a social media post, saying China now has "a foothold in the Canadian market" that it will use at the expense of Canadian workers[39]. Therefore, a gradual shift with control can be obtained with some manageable control measures. For example, less than 3% of auto production can be introduced to both meet zero-emission and bring to consumers more reasonably priced vehicles to increase total welfare and stimulate the economy in general. Also, China welcomes Canadians to invest in aerospace and advanced technology while Canada remains conservative on Chinese investment in sensitive sectors, and the writer would suggest a certain percentage of controlling shares so as to both introduce more capital and yet still gain control.

Canada banned China's Huawei from working on the country's 5G networks in 2022, citing national security concerns. However, the writer finds that there are also such concerns on American iPhones. Certain Apple services still track and transmit data. The point is that there should be agreement in place that privacy should be protected and data not leaked to third parties without the owner’s consent. To maximize privacy, users can enable Advanced Data Protection in iCloud settings and review app permissions in the "Privacy & Security" menu.

6. Aiming at Quality Brands and Hi-Tech Industries

If we look at Canada’s exports to China, nearly 90 percent of it consists of some form of bulk commodities: food, canola, and ore. Canada is getting electric vehicles, and China is getting canola, and you may wonder which country is a developing one. Canada has trends in AI and quantum, and maybe it can get aboard the electric train too. Or, Canada and China can develop the trackless trains. Shopify, Lululemon, Archaeopteryx, Canada Goose - these are more or less household names in the US. But with one-tenth of the US population, Canada has not produced the number of comparable brands that even Canadians can name.

7. Encouraging People-to-People Exchanges Based on Mutual Benefits

China is currently Canada's second-largest trading partner. The latest Ipsos poll shows that over half of Canadians support strengthening trade ties and economic cooperation with China[40].

Chinese components and raw materials are vital inputs for Canadian manufacturing. Businesses hope Carney’s visit will help secure supply chain stability. With more businesses between China and Canada looking to trade with each other, there will be a tendency to make the partnership sustainable and prosperous.

The Canadian Wood Council believes that Canada and China have comprehensively planned cooperation in new areas such as clean energy and green products. Deepening exchanges around key directions like prefabricated construction applications and collaborative industrial chain upgrades will establish a platform for resource matching and innovation collaboration between Canadian and Chinese wood structure enterprises[41].

8. Learning from Argentine's trade relations with China and Benchmarking against the South American Common Market

Argentine has solidified its economic relationship with China as of January 2026, despite President Javier Milei’s previous anti-communist rhetoric and alignment with the U.S. Key aspects include a renewed currency swap agreement, Chinese investment in non-renewable resources, and a massive influx of affordable Chinese electric vehicles (EVs).

•          Trade and Investment: China remains Argentina's second-largest trade partner, importing massive amounts of beef and soy. Chinese investments in Argentina have exceeded US$23 billion, focusing heavily on energy, mining, and non-renewable resources.

•          Currency Swap: Following an initial freeze, the bilateral currency swap agreement was renewed in 2024 and continues to operate, allowing Argentina to manage its foreign exchange reserves .

•          Electric Vehicle Influx: As of January 2026, Argentina has opened its doors to Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) to curb inflation, with firms like BYD importing thousands of low-cost cars.

Canada can learn to manage its complex relationship with China by adopting the pragmatic, risk-aware, and diversified approaches demonstrated by Australia and, more recently, shifting strategies in South America, particularly regarding critical minerals. Some key lessons drawn from multiple sources[42] include the following.

1) Strategic Resource Management

Argentina, under President Javier Milei, has demonstrated a approach of engaging with China for economic investment—particularly in strategic sectors like lithium and copper—while maintaining a clear-eyed view of national interest.

2) Balancing Political Shifts

Argentina shows that, despite ideological differences, economic realities require a pragmatic and functional relationship with Beijing.

 

3) Expanding Trade among All Different Areas

China is Argentina's second-largest trading partner. Argentina exports soybeans, beef, and other products to China, presenting opportunities for this major global food producer. Argentine beef will continue to benefit from a preferential 12.5% tariff rate within the 511,000 ton quota. China remains Argentina's largest beef export destination. Data shows that in the first 11 months of 2025, approximately 70% of Argentina's total beef exports were destined for the Chinese market, even when the prices doubled. As for soybeans, the percentage reached 90%, contributing significantly to the country’s $2.5 billion trade surplus. From January to October 2025, China also accounted for 85.7% of import value and 94.4% of import volume. According to Infobae on December 10, The Argentine Textile Industry Foundation (Fundación ProTejer) released a report stating that 7 out of every 10 garments entering the Argentine market originate from China.

In January 2026, 5,800 vehicles from the giant EV maker BYD arrived in Argentina after a 23-day voyage from Singapore, and five or six more models are on the way. The Argentinian government is allowing up to 50,000 electric and hybrid vehicles into the country tariff-free in 2026[43], which is an even better deal than what Canada has offered.

4) Wide-Ranged Investment Cooperation

According to TN on January 11, the Milei administration formally submitted a $150 million financing request to relevant Chinese banks to restart the Jorge Cepernic hydroelectric project in Santa Cruz Province. The project has been suspended since late 2023. The joint venture (UTE) comprising China's Gezhouba Group, Argentina's Eling Energía, and Hidrocuyo stated that once financing is secured, it will immediately begin rehiring some employees who left due to the suspension. Currently, bidding for project materials has commenced, with deliveries expected to begin in March 2026.

China also has plans to build new trains and upgrade the old trains in Argentina.

Chinese products are known for their high quality and competitive prices, complemented by excellent merchant services. Thanks to artificial intelligence applications, a single worker at a Shanghai suburban port can manage ten container cranes; at a Nanjing factory, 28 robotic arms operate busily on production lines while automated guided vehicles move efficiently[44]. China's new Five-Year Plan proposal highlights key focus areas including quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, and sixth-generation mobile communications.

5) Political Cooperation

Not only in terms of trade and investment have Argentine and China engaged deeply, they have done so also in politics. According to Infobae on January 16, a parliamentary delegation led by Juliana Santillán, a deputy from Argentina's ruling Liberal Front party, visited China from January 13 to 16. Santillán described it as an official visit funded by China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The parliamentary delegation visited several Chinese provinces and met with multiple private enterprises, including COFCO in Guangdong, Shenzhen Lide International Development Zone, as well as Huawei, Mindray, and Skyworth. Santillán emphasized that such visits are crucial for deepening mutual understanding between the two nations and strengthening the Argentina-China strategic partnership.

6) Active Free Trade Arrangement with the Western Countries

Another experience Canada can borrow is engagement in multilateral agreements or arrangements to both facilitate trade and establish rapport in the same group. According to BANCO PIANO on January 9, Argentine Foreign Minister Gilardino emphasized on Friday that after 25 years of arduous negotiations, the EU recently approved the trade agreement with Mercosur. Gilardino stressed: “This is a win-win situation: Argentina and Mercosur member states will gain preferential access to the EU—the world's third-largest economy with a market of 450 million people, accounting for approximately 15% of global GDP.” He further highlighted that the EU “will eliminate tariffs on 92% of our exports and grant preferential access to the remaining 7.5%. Under these terms, 99% of Mercosur's agricultural exports will benefit."

9. Working Together Participating in Joint Committees and Multilateral Mechanisms or Arrangements

The bilateral agreements signed between Canada and China also escalate the work of the Joint Economic and Trade Commission, a body tasked with resolving trade barriers that was dormant until Carney brought it back to life last year. Those agreements will have trade ministers from each country chair the commission, which will meet in Canada in the summer or fall. Canada and China have also revived a joint agricultural committee which also touches on these issues.

The main economics agreement between both countries says both support rules-based trade with the World Trade Organization "at its core," and both support WTO reforms. The document notes Canada's long-held position that economies looking to join the bloc CPATP — which include China and Taiwan — need to meet the high standards on such things as labour rights, environmental protection and intellectual property[45]. That being said, the writer thinks similar provisions as in WTO can help China to shift gradually both to give China a chance and to allow Canada to continue enjoying affordable goods and products imported from China.

10. Correct the Wrong Political Correctness

1) Stop Blind Support to Projects with Harmful Effects

The annual Indigenous budget has almost tripled from 2015 to 2025, growing (in nominal dollars) from roughly $11 billion to more than $32 billion.

In addition, class actions have been settled without litigation, with estimated liabilities reaching $76 billion in 2023[46], while specific claims have been settled at a rate four times higher than by the previous government, leading to a significant transfer of land and money to First Nations. Simply increasing money transfers to First Nations does not necessarily produce improvements in measured well-being.

Since Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Canada has committed over $23.5 billion in multifaceted assistance for Ukraine, including over $12 billion in direct financial support, and additional support announced in December 2025 to back the International Monetary Fund program for Ukraine as well as support its recovery and reconstruction. Since January 2022, Canada has committed $396.85 million in humanitarian assistance (with shelter, food, health services and relevant support involved) to respond to the humanitarian impacts of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine and neighbouring countries. A Brazilian observed this, and posted, despite popular support for Ukraine, most of Brazilians would also agree that this is a war on the other side of the world and has nothing to do with us, therefore we should remain as neutral as possible. So the question is what makes Canada so different from us[47] and the rest of the New World (aside from the US)? Another thing to be aware is: are Canadians so rich that they want to give away their money so freely?

2) Stop Introducing Refugees and Temporary Immigrants without Scrutiny and Load-Capacity Review

 With more and more refugees and temporary immigrants coming with less scrutiny and less consideration of the load capacity, while the U.S. still generally has higher violent crime and homicide rates, especially due to firearm violence, Canada's rates for overall property crime and certain violent crimes (like major assaults) are now often higher, and the gap in violent crime has been narrowing as U.S. rates decline and Canadian rates rise. The crime rate change is a sharp contrast to Harper's time when the rate has a significant consistent drop[48].

Canada needs a wise pragmatic strategically thinking leader who serves the interest of the general public. Crime, productivity, the federal deficit, even the share of the House of Commons held by Harper’s Conservatives; each of these was in better shape when Harper left than when he started[49]. Harper left office on Nov. 4, 2015, amid a flurry of warnings that were dismissed as sensationalist, and with a policy record that was enthusiastically reversed by his Liberal successors. If there is one trait that marks Harper out above his predecessors, it’s the ability to seem increasingly prescient with time.

 

V. How Canada Should Deal with the US in the New World Order

1. Advocate an Open Strategic Autonomy

1) Proactive and Targeted Diplomacy

• Leverage economic interdependence by highlighting how deeply integrated supply chains (especially in critical minerals, energy, power and automotive) make Canadian products essential, not just imports
• Sub-national engagement by deepening relationships with U.S. state governors, members of Congress, and business leaders whose states benefit from cross-border trade, rather than focusing solely on Washington
• “Team Canada” Approach by establishing clear, agreed-upon goals among all levels of government to avoid fragmented responses to U.S. demands
• "Go viral" with data by using targeted digital and social media campaigns to reach American audiences with facts about the mutual benefits of trade

 

2) Economic Defense and Diversification

• Strengthen CUSMA: Proactively manage the 2026 review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA/USMCA) to reinforce it as a stable and clear-defined economic framework
• Support domestic industries by implementing support measures (subsidies, tax breaks) for Canadian industries, such as manufacturing and agriculture that are heavily impacted by U.S. tariffs and cutting down on internal trade barriers
• Diversify trade partners accelerating efforts to increase trade with Asia, Europe, and Latin America to reduce reliance on the U.S. market
• Prepare targeted retaliation by developing "hit lists" of U.S. goods for retaliatory tariffs that strategically target politically sensitive industries and regions to create pressure within the U.S. on key policymakers

 

3) Principled yet Pragmatic Practice

• Maintain a firm stance on core national interests while being pragmatic about negotiations
• Create a "win-win" narrative: offering moderate, symbolic concessions—such as specific dairy access or energy approvals—in exchange for long-term tariff exemptions for critical sectors
• Establishing joint organizations to get around USMCA talks
• Build a "North America Centre" to provide expert advice and data to guide Canada’s long-term strategy towards the U.S.
• Reach the North American Energy Security Pact that could allow for better terms in trade negotiations

 

2. Avoid Direct Conflicts with the US, Learning from Mexico

1) Calm and Careful Communications

When United States President Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico in early 2025, the two countries reacted very differently. Canada led with an “elbows up” campaign involving counter-tariffs and boycotts of American alcohol.

Mexico, by contrast, struck a more conciliatory tone and cautiously started to align its trade policy with the U.S. As Canada prepares for a turbulent 2026, Mexico’s experience offers valuable lessons.

Both Mexico and Canada depend heavily on trade with the U.S: both send three-quarters of their exports there. The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) underpins tariff-free access to the U.S. for most North American goods. But the deal is in jeopardy. The U.S. alleges Mexico and Canada are being used as trans-shipment hubs for Chinese goods. These tensions will come to a head in July 2026 when CUSMA is up for review.

Mexico has cleverly navigated trade tensions with the U.S. while protecting its own values and interests. Mexico’s latest duty increases up to 50% on Chinese EVs aim to protect domestic industries and counteract trade imbalances with China. However, to pre-empt American concerns, Mexico has begun cautiously aligning with U.S. trade policy. As early as 2023, it pledged to work with the U.S. on foreign investment screening to address security issues around rising Chinese investment[50]. Though the writer does not want the government to copy Mexico’s practice, its geniality and amicability to the US may be borrowed.

 

2) Principled yet Pragmatic Practice

By raising duties only in select sectors, Mexico avoided putting duties on everyday consumer goods, which have driven up prices in the U.S. In addition, while the U.S. is imposing tariffs on friends and foes alike, the Mexican tariffs explicitly exempt countries with which it has free-trade agreements, supporting its broader trade diversification agenda.

Unlike the U.S. tariffs, which violate international trade law, Mexico’s measures are also fully consistent with its international obligations. As a developing country, Mexico committed to higher tariff ceilings at the World Trade Organization (WTO) than the U.S. This allows it to unilaterally raise tariffs up to the maximum levels permitted under international trade law.

Although China has criticized the move, Mexico’s non-discriminatory application of tariffs to all non-FTA partners avoids singling out any specific country and appears legal.

It is also superior to alternate ways of aligning with the U.S. Deals struck by the U.S. with Malaysia and Cambodia committed these countries to aligning with American import restrictions and export controls whenever it is in the U.S. national interest, effectively forcing them to forgo an autonomous trade policy altogether. While the writer may not agree with what they are doing, alignment (while not harming the others) and agreements may solve the problem.

Canada should renegotiate its tariff bindings at the WTO in sectors critical to its industrial base. The European Union, for example, is preparing to increase its tariffs on imported steel by renegotiating its bindings at the WTO. This would provide a long-term solution offering predictability for both the affected Canadian sectors and trading partners and would be fully lawful.

 

VI. Conditions for a Stable Global Relationship Network

1. A Well-Defined Trade Strategy

No matter whether Carney wanted to forge his support during the difficult times, and no matter whether Trump will continue his presidency, Canada needs a well-defined trade strategy. The writer compares the present fight facing Carney to a fight in the warring states era in China, when Qin took measures to wipe out all countries using a strategy uniting distant allies[51] and attacking the neighboring states (like Venezuela and Greenland) while the other states tried hard to unite together to smash Qin’s plot. The core lesson from the failure of the Vertical Alliance against Qin lies in the Six States' lack of unity, trust, and a long-term strategy, which led to a loose alliance easily divided and defeated by Qin's “Horizontal Alliance” strategy. Specific lessons include: states making big losses by pursuing petty gains (e.g., Han and Wei repeatedly ceding territory for peace), internal disunity, susceptibility to Qin's counterintelligence schemes (e.g., Zhao executing Mu Li), and failure to establish a truly unified command structure against Qin. The deeper lessons from the failure of the Vertical Alliance against Qin are summarized[52] as follows: lack of unified core leadership and efficient military mobilization capabilities; selfishness and mistrust utilized by Qin in dividing and conquering; short-sighted territorial concessions and compromises (like what is happening today in Southern America and near the Arctic) not only weakening themselves but also undermining the alliance's overall.

The key to the success of Qin's “befriend distant states while attacking nearby ones” strategy (proposed by its Prime Minister Sui Fan) lay in: dividing and undermining the alliance of the Six States, concentrating forces to defeat them one by one, combined with lavish bribes, sowing discord among enemy states' talents, and powerful military pressure. Qin successfully transformed from a weak state into a powerful one, ultimately achieving its goal of annexing the Six States. On the contrary, the failure of the Vertical Alliance stemmed from the inability to achieve mutual benefit due to self-interest, causing the original strategic advantage to be squandered through internal strife and compromise.

Therefore, the writer advocates a strategy of unity and cooperation characteristic of:

• A clear vision with no illusions
• Not US-reliant nor China-reliant (but a free trade agreement with China should not be ruled out as Canada can learn from Australia which has free trade with both the US and China) but self-reliant
• Long-term unity of middle powers looking ahead to the future
• Pragmatic and persistent
• A gradual shift to an independent economy with trade diversification

2. Based on Mutual Economic Benefits

Friends and enemies may change from time to time, but principles and interests may be always there. While keeping some of the basic principles, maintaining the same treatment for the same status in its framework, Canada may make as many friends as it can to explore mutual benefits and comparative advantage in international trade.

3. Bound by Political and Diplomatic Equality and Respect

Canada should respect all countries, whether big or small, rich, or poor, near or far. Also, Canada needs to walk the talk, and be able to treat its partners with respect and trust and account for its behavior consistently.

4. Avoiding Small Blocs Targeting Third Parties

While Canada can join in as many partnerships as it pleases, the benefits and interests of third parties should not be infringed on. This is both a respect for all different countries and a safeguarding of the principle of peaceful coexistence and joint development.

5. Institutional Constraints and Third-Party Coordination

When Canada and other countries have a dispute, it can be raised to the bilateral committees. If that is not effective, third parties can step in to mediate or arbitrate, and some international agreements or arrangements can be consulted.

6. A Safety Net on the National “Alice Line”

Alice Line is the term that American lower or middle class people facing some big financial challenges like critical illness, car accidents may have to face a situation of their living standard dropped drastically to that of poverty. The National Alice Line means the line that a country may face contingent on certain triggered events, like high tariffs, financial crisis due to default loans, etc. The writer is advocating some of the following:

1) Territory: A Three-Level High-Tech Defense System

2) Finance and Banking: Foreign Currency Exchange and Loans System (like the 5-year CNY￥200 billion exchange agreement[53] already reached between China and Canada)

3) Communications: Emergent Negotiations and Quick Response System

 

Let us end this article with some of Carney’s statements at Dovos[54] and three of the writer’s:

• If great powers abandon even the pretense of rules and values for the unhindered pursuit of their power and interests, the gains from transactionalism will become harder to replicate.
• When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.
• A world of fortresses will be poorer, more fragile and less sustainable.
• Hegemons cannot continually monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify to hedge against uncertainty. The middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.
• What does it mean for middle powers to live the truth? It means acting consistently, applying the same standards to allies and rivals. Otherwise, we are keeping the sign in the window. It means creating institutions and agreements that function as described, and it means reducing the leverage that enables coercion.
• No one can rescue you if you want to perish yourself.
• The inner enemy is bigger than the outer one.
• Opportunities hide behind the biggest problems.

 

While it is a must to increase trading with China, it would be wise to diversify Canada’s trade in terms of both regions and industries, to build up economic strength by bringing forward more Canadian product brands, more technology talents and more positive and sustainable investment, to remove the trade barriers at home and get around the ones abroad, to correct the wrong political correctness, and to be able to walk the tight rope between the US and China, other than just delivering a glamorous beautiful speech). An overall strategy of IEEU (independence, economy first, equal treatment for the same status and for each other, and unity of middle powers) would be good for Canada to adjust to the present situation.

交易与否：毋容置疑（摘要）

——论加拿大对华对美政策及其在新世界秩序中的全球贸易格局

2026年的加拿大经济面临重大挑战，包括“人均”经济衰退导致生活水平下降、住房成本高企、劳动生产率极低等问题，核心症结在于：与美国的贸易紧张关系（含新增关税威胁）、收入增长停滞、家庭债务高企，以及庞大低效的公共部门。加拿大总理近期访华达成多领域协议，涵盖电动汽车进口、油菜籽出口、制造业投资及旅游业等。该协议规定，加拿大取消对中国电动汽车征收关税并逐年提高进口配额。作为交换，中国将降低对加拿大油菜籽等农产品的关税。该协议显然体现了马克·卡尼总理积极寻求非美国贸易伙伴的政策（他承诺到2030年将对华出口提升50%）。不过贸易部长多米尼克·勒布朗表示，加拿大并非在寻求与中国达成自由贸易协定，此举仅为解决具体关税问题。学术界对卡尼在达沃斯论坛的演讲也存在不同看法。有人认为其充满问题且纯属迎合选民；有人指出“国际经济合作本是正和博弈，而这种全新全面战略范式却是零和博弈”；另有人评价道：“谁都没想到，一个温和国家的相对保守的央行行长竟会如此挑衅特朗普”。然而，特朗普威胁征收100%关税更多是一种谈判策略。在联邦检察官对前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔启动刑事调查后，这场直率的达沃斯演讲可被视为对特朗普总统的公开挑战。与中国开展的举措可能提升自由党在联邦选举中的地位，并增强其在议会中的话语权。此外，此举或将唤醒加拿大各省省长，促使他们打破省际间的桎梏（官僚体系、繁文缛节、关税及其他国内贸易壁垒）。当加拿大既无法深化与美国的关系，也无法维持现状时，唯一选择便是实现贸易多元化，摆脱对单一国家的依赖。在这个经济疲软、通胀攀升、关税战升级、地区冲突持续、国际协调日益困难的新时代，我们面临抉择：是固守干瘪的教条与抽象的地缘政治立场，还是聚焦于切实地改善民生？是成为被逼入绝境的盟友，还是追求自主自立、寻求新秩序的独立主权国家？话虽如此，在摆脱旧秩序的过程中仍需谨慎行事，因为这既需要时间也需要努力（而且我们似乎为时已晚）。在追求多元化的同时，加拿大需要将政治与经济分离，尊重透明度原则，在理解、协议和安排的基础上建立信任，保持对彼此权益的相互保障，对敏感领域实施控制限制，参与多边谈判和调解机制，并借鉴墨西哥、阿根廷和澳大利亚与中国打交道的经验。作者还倡导构建国家安全网，包括以下要素：以领土为基础的三层高科技防御体系，以金融为依托的综合性货币兑换与贷款体系，以及以通信为支撑的应急谈判与快速响应机制。作者进一步强调：自取灭亡者无人能救，内患重于外患，最大危机背后往往潜藏着大的机遇。虽然增加对华贸易势在必行，但明智之举是使加拿大贸易在地区和产业层面实现多元化——要付诸行动而非坐井观天，通过推出更多加拿大产品品牌、引进更多科技人才、吸引更多积极可持续的投资来增强经济实力，拆除国内贸易壁垒，绕过国外贸易壁垒，纠正错误的政治正确，并在中美之间保持微妙的平衡。采用IEEU（独立自主、经济优先、平等互惠和中等国家团结）的整体战略，将有助于加拿大适应当前局势。

关键词：关税、贸易格局、多样化、生活水平

 

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[1] Nadine Yousif: Canada's deal with China signals it is serious about shift from US, BBC, 2026-01-16. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm24k6kk1rko.

[2] Tim Dowling: Mark Carney in China positions Canada for ‘the world as it is, not as we wish it’, the Guardian, 2026-01-16. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/17/mark-carney-in-china-positions-canada-for-the-world-as-it-is-not-as-we-wish-it.

[3] Craig Lord: Five things to know about Canada’s new ‘strategic partnership’ with China, the Canadian Press, 2026-01-16. https://halifax.citynews.ca/2026/01/16/five-things-to-know-about-canadas-new-strategic-partnership-with-china/.

[4] Michael Woods: Taking stock of today's deal, and what it means, CBC, 2026-01-16. Please check the website https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/livestory/canada-china-electric-vehicles-canola-trade-deal-carney-xi-9.7048058.

[5] Joy Joshi: 'No one expected' Carney to 'stick a finger in Trump’s eye': Experts reveal what PM's Davos and Quebec speeches meant for Canada, 2026-01-26. https://ca.yahoo.com/news/no-one-expected-carney-to-stick-a-finger-in-trumps-eye-experts-reveal-what-pms-davos-and-quebec-speeches-meant-for-canada-153839933.html.

[6] David Baxter: 'I meant what I said': Carney says he explained his Davos speech to Trump, the Canadian Press, 2026-01-27. https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/carney-says-told-trump-meant-135507691.html.

[7] https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/en/site/us-tariffs; https://www.blakes.com/insights/us-canada-tariffs-timeline-of-key-dates-and-documents/.

[8] Ben Aisen: Canada’s economic stagnation—a big problem for Canadians, the Fraser Institute, 30 June 2024. https://www.fraserinstitute.org/commentary/canadas-economic-stagnation-big-problem-canadians#:~:text=EST.,be%20such%20a%20big%20deal.

[9] Lawrence L. Schembri and Milagros Palacios: Living standards for the average Canadian declined over the period 2020 to 2024 despite growth in the overall economy, Fraser Institute, 2025-09-18. Please also check the article https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/canadas-ugly-growth-experience-2020-2024-why-gdp-per-capita-declined-while-overall-economy-grew.

[10] Anam Khan: Canada’s economy is on life support and country is in recession watch, says economist, Bloomberg, 2026-02-03. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/02/03/canadas-economy-is-on-life-support-and-country-is-in-recession-says-economist/.

[11] Country comparison Australia vs Canada 2026, please check the website by clicking the link https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/australia/canada. Note that the auto parts data are based on reports from OEC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and industry association figures as of late 2025.

[12] https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html; https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c1220.html;  https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0003.html;

[13] HueyBluey: Are you concerned that Canada is the only one (besides China) to retaliate?  Check on https://www.reddit.com/r/AskCanada/comments/1jvzjxa/are_you_concerned_that_canada_is_the_only_one/.

[14] Operation Yellow Ribbon, Wikipedia, accessed on 2026-02-03, please check the site by clicking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Yellow_Ribbon#:~:text=Transport%20Canada%20said%20over%2033%2C000,US%2Dbound%20flights%20diverted%20to.

[15] Trump threatens 200% tariffs on French wines to get Macron on 'Board of Peace', Thomson Reuters, 20 Jan 2026. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-macron-tariffs-board-of-peace-9.7052886.

[16] Global Affairs Canada: Monthly trade report: 2025 – May, https://international.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/corporate/reports/chief-economist/monthly/2025-05.

[17] Adriana Fallico：Canada-U.S. relationship ‘will not go back to what it was,’ Hillman says, Global News, 2026-02-02. https://globalnews.ca/news/11644994/canadian-ambassador-us-kirsten-hillman/.

[18] Sean Boynton: Read the full transcript of Carney’s speech to World Economic Forum, Global News, 20 January 2026. Check it out on https://globalnews.ca/news/11620877/carney-davos-wef-speech-transcript/.

[19] Vikram Nijhawan, etc: What Canada Gets Wrong in Its Reset with China, 2026-01-23, the Walrus, https://thewalrus.ca/what-canada-gets-wrong-in-its-reset-with-china/.

[20]  Sean Boynton: Read the full transcript of Carney’s speech to World Economic Forum, Global News, 20 January 2026. Check it out on https://globalnews.ca/news/11620877/carney-davos-wef-speech-transcript/.

[21] Marc Ercolao: Setting the Record Straight on Canada-U.S. Trade, TD, 21 Jan 2025. Please  check it on the website https://economics.td.com/ca-canada-us-trade-balance.

[22] Rachel Aiello: Carney slaps down Trump’s claim that Canada ‘lives’ because of the U.S., CTV News, 22 Jan 2026. https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/carney-responds-to-trumps-davos-remarks-at-cabinet-meeting/.

[23] Robin Della Carte: ‘We’re being forced into a corner’: Experts warn Trump’s tariff threats against Canada will hurt both countries, 2026-01-25. https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/the-costs-will-be-borne-on-both-sides-of-the-border-experts-on-trumps-tariff-threats-against-canada/.

[24] Peng Jiang: Carney's China Visit: Can Canada Break Through Trade Impasse with China (Chinese)? Maple Investment Canada, January 16, 2026.  https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-2-Va-PFoeybv4lGhOmyQg.

[25] Ana Faguy and Osmond Chia: Fed chair Powell hits out at 'unprecedented' probe by US justice department, BBC, 2026-01-12. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c801k7rkkd7o.

[26] Daniel Teeter and Christopher Cotton: Interprovincial Trade Barriers: What are they? How costly are they for Canada? And How Can We Address Them? Economics and Policy, 2025-03-31. Please also click to view the article https://economicsandpolicy.ca/2025/03/31/interprovincial-trade-barriers-what-are-they-how-costly-are-they-for-canada-and-how-can-we-address-them/.

[27] Gigi Suhanic: Canada's economy could grow by 7% if internal trade barriers removed, says IMF, Financial Post, 2026-01-27. https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-tariffing-itself-interprovincial-trade-barriers-imf.

[28] Shifting perspectives: More Canadians now prioritize trade opportunities over China’s human rights record, Angus Reid Institute, 2026-01-29, https://angusreid.org/carney-china-trade-electric-vehicles-canola-beijing/.

[29] Bentley Allan: Learn from the Best: Why Canada’s China Deal Could Make Industrial Policy Sense, teh Transition Accelerator, 2026-01-16, https://transitionaccelerator.ca/news-and-insights/learn-from-the-best-why-canadas-china-deal-could-make-industrial-policy-sense/.

[30] Graeme Gordon: Canadians lost confidence in Parliament at end of Justin Trudeau’s prime ministership: Statistics Canada Analysis, the Hub, 2026-01-09. https://thehub.ca/2026/01/09/canadians-lost-confidence-in-parliament-at-end-of-justin-trudeaus-prime-ministership-statistics-canada/.

[31] Colleen Silverthorn: Sask. groups say Ottawa's food affordability rebates are good, but more is needed, CBC, 2026-01-26. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/groceries-affordability-sask-groups-rebates-9.7062009.

[32] Nadine Yousif: Canada's deal with China signals it is serious about shift from US, BBC, 2026-01-16. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm24k6kk1rko.

[33] Sean Boynton: Read the full transcript of Carney’s speech to World Economic Forum, Global News, 20 January 2026. Check it out on https://globalnews.ca/news/11620877/carney-davos-wef-speech-transcript/.

[34] Sean Boynton: Read the full transcript of Carney’s speech to World Economic Forum, Global News, 20 January 2026. Check it out on https://globalnews.ca/news/11620877/carney-davos-wef-speech-transcript/.

[35] Charles Foran: The Canada experiment: is this the world's first 'postnational' country? The Guardian, 2017-01-04. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/04/the-canada-experiment-is-this-the-worlds-first-postnational-country#:~:text=But%20as%20well%20as%20practical,%2C%20no%20mainstream%20in%20Canada.%E2%80%9D. Candice Malcom: Trudeau adopting wrong immigration approach, Toronto Sun, 2016-04-01. Please also check https://www.cgai.ca/opedapril12016.

[36] Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs: President Xi Jinping Meets with Canadian Prime Minister      Mark Carney, 2025-10-  31. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zy/jj/xjpcx32apecbdhgjxgsfw/202510/t20251031_11745116.html.

[37] Tim Dowling: Mark Carney in China positions Canada for ‘the world as it is, not as we wish it’, the Guardian, 2026-01-16. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/17/mark-carney-in-china-positions-canada-for-the-world-as-it-is-not-as-we-wish-it.

[38] International Sharp Commentary丨The Momentum in China-Canada Relations Is Hard-Won; We Must Foster the “Four Partnerships” (Chinese), CCTV News App, 2026-01-18. Please take tour time to view the article by clicking https://news.cnr.cn/native/gd/20260118/t20260118_527497329.shtml.

[39] Craig Lord: Five things to know about Canada’s new ‘strategic partnership’ with China, the Canadian Press, 2026-01-16. https://halifax.citynews.ca/2026/01/16/five-things-to-know-about-canadas-new-strategic-partnership-with-china/.

[40] International Sharp Commentary丨The Momentum in China-Canada Relations Is Hard-Won; We Must Foster the “Four Partnerships” (Chinese), CCTV News App, 2026-01-18. Please take tour time to view the article by clicking https://news.cnr.cn/native/gd/20260118/t20260118_527497329.shtml.

[41] Overview丨Canadian Business Leaders Give Positive Assessment of Canada-China Trade Talks Outcomes (Chinese), Xinhua News Agency, Ottawa, 2026-01-17. Please also take time to read the article by clicking http://www.xinhuanet.com/20260118/5d39f5bf7d6a48dfae7b71e99bbc729b/c.html.

[42] Jiawei Zhang: Hang in There, Argentina (Chinese), Jiawei Zhang's Perspective, 2026-01-07. Please take time to read https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kGfhxeHvDSepnNj_AiHLmw.

[43] João Veloso: BYD Ships 5,800 Vehicles to Argentina as Milei Opens Door to Chinese EVs, 2026-01-22. https://eletric-vehicles.com/byd/byd-ships-5800-vehicles-to-argentina-as-milei-opens-door-to-chinese-evs/.

[44] Xue Wang: Global Outlook丨Argentine Media: China Is Argentina's Key Trading Partner (Chinese), Xinhua News Agency, 2025-11-19. https://www.xinhuanet.com/world/20251119/d79bf85f4fef49b98152c529d5f2d845/c.html.

[45] Dylan Robertson: 6 economic areas Canada and China have agreed to expand — and one big holdout, the Canadian Press, 2026-01-15. https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/6-economic-areas-canada-and-china-have-agreed-to-expand-and-one-big-holdout/.

[46] Tom Flanagan: Federal Indigenous spending almost tripled to projected $32 billion - but modest improvement in Indigenous living standards due to unrelated federal child benefit, Fraser Institute, 2024-11-19.  Please check https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/an-avalanche-of-money-the-federal-governments-policies-toward-first-nations.

[47] Honest question: Why is Canada supporting Ukraine so much? Accessed on 2026-02-04 on  https://www.reddit.com/r/AskACanadian/comments/1693lsu/honest_question_why_is_canada_supporting_ukraine/.

[48] Nael Shiab: Can you guess how crime rates changed under Harper and Trudeau? CBC News, 2025-03-26. https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/features/2025/draw-it/crime/.

[49] Tristin Hopper: HOW STEPHEN HARPER WAS RIGHT ABOUT WHAT THE LIBERALS GOT WRONG, National Post, 2026-02-02, https://nationalpost.com/opinion/what-prime-minister-stephen-harper-got-right;  https://www.facebook.com/cprm013113/posts/how-stephen-harper-was-rightand-what-the-liberals-got-wrongwhen-stephen-harper-l/1519656026383753/.

[50] What Canada can learn from Mexico’s approach to U.S. trade, the Conversation, 19 Jan 2026. Please check the website https://theconversation.com/what-canada-can-learn-from-mexicos-approach-to-u-s-trade-273101.

[51] Elizabeth “Liz” Cannon resigned as Executive Director of the Information and Communications Technology and Services (ICTS) office, created in 2022 to address supply-chain threats from foreign adversaries. Cannon’s office had earlier effectively blocked Chinese passenger vehicles from entering the U.S. market over national security and data privacy concerns. Her departure comes soon after the Commerce Department dropped proposed restrictions on Chinese drones, despite fears of remote access and data manipulation. Expected rules on medium and heavy-duty truck imports (over 10,000 pounds) from China and other adversaries are also currently on hold. Please check https://x.com/ToolsTech4All/status/2014982155466911825.

[52] During the Warring States period, why did the alliances formed by various states to attack Qin often end in failure, while the alliance formed to attack Qi succeeded in destroying that state (Chinese)? Zhihu, 2023-11-04. https://www.zhihu.com/question/348806264.

[53] Xinhua News Agency: China, Canada renew currency swap agreement, 2026-01-16. https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202601/16/content_WS696a2fb6c6d00ca5f9a089e2.html.

[54] Sean Boynton: Read the full transcript of Carney’s speech to World Economic Forum, Global News, 20 January 2026. Check it out on https://globalnews.ca/news/11620877/carney-davos-wef-speech-transcript/.