Which Party to Support in SK for the Next 4 Years

I. Introduction

26 Oct 2020 will be another landmark for the history in Saskatchewan as that is the day to decide on the next government. This article will introduce the polls, review the two big parties’ performance, compare their platforms and conclude with some policy suggestions.

 

II. Polls

According to Angus Reid Institute, the Sask Party lead the way on economic questions in the poll conducted on 15 Oct 2020. 86% of people in the poll said the party would be best to lead on resources, and 82% favored the Sask Party on economic growth questions. The NDP ranked better on social issues – 44% of people said the NDP is the best party to lead on health-care issues versus 39% for the Sask Party, and 48% said the NDP would be the best party to lead on the province’s COVID-19 response versus 33% for the Sask Party[i].

 

Actually there are some other polls with all the results as shown below:

338 Canada Oct 19, 2020: Sask: 60.3%; NDP: 34.8%; Other: 2.4%; Green: 2.4%. (https://338canada.com/saskatchewan/)

CBC Oct 15, 2020: Sask: 58.8%; NDP: 34.0%; Other: 5.2%; Green: 2.1%. (https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/saskatchewan/)

Research Co. (Vancouver) Oct 11, 2020: Sask: 58%; NDP: 36%; Other: 4%; Green: 2%. (https://leaderpost.com/news/politics/sask-election/online-only-poll-puts-sask-party-support-26-points-up-on-ndp)

EKOS late August 2020: Sask: 60%; NDP: 28%. (https://leaderpost.com/news/politics/sask-election/online-only-poll-puts-sask-party-support-26-points-up-on-ndp)

Angus Reid Institute 15 Oct 2020: Sask: 60%; NDP: 33%. (http://angusreid.org/saskatchewan-election-2020/)

 

III. Performance of Saskatchewan Party and NDP

Although Saskatchewan Party leads in almost all the polls, NDP says they are to be relied on. Therefore, the past performance of the two parties needs to be examined, and it may be quite interesting to do a comparison[ii].

 

The economy grew faster in an average year under the previous NDP government than in an average year under the Saskatchewan Party, but only by the slimmest of margins. But the background was different. The NDP trailed the rest of Canada, which grew by more than 60 per cent over the same period, or more than three per cent per year. The Sask. Party government beat the national average. There are 3,300 jobs created in an average year of NDP government.

 

Under the NDP’s last stint in government, divisions closed 176 schools. Health regions closed 52 rural hospitals. Enrolment was down due to rural depopulation, and 32 more schools have closed under the Sask. Party even as it builds urban schools. However, Ryan Meili cast the 2020 election as a choice between NDP investment and Saskatchewan Party cuts (referring to the cut in schools, health care and Crowns in 2017), promising smaller classes and more jobs with the NDP government. Meili stood by comments supporting a mandatory mask policy at the polls, one day after he appeared to disagree with Elections Saskatchewan's decision to merely recommend masks without requiring them for voters[iii].

 

It’s a tricky business counting how many surpluses and deficits each party has run, since accounting rules have changed at least twice. But under the current system, the NDP is 11 surpluses for 16 while the Sask. Party is four surpluses for 12. The difference between public debt at the beginning of the term and the one in the most recent year for NDP is a $10.4 billion decrease, and the difference for Saskatchewan Party is a $9.22 billion increase.

 

However, until the pandemic, the Sask. Party’s job record was almost twice as strong, 6500 in an average year. There were just 6,381 more Saskatchewan people after 16 years of NDP government. The Sask. Party racked up far more jobs much more quickly as the population exploded by 171,358 people. The numbers of immigrants vary from 1800 to 2100 from the year 2000 to 2007. However, these numbers vary from 4200 to about 15000 under Saskatchewan Party’s rule, which is much higher[iv].

 

As each party has something to boast of, how should we make a choice? We know an area becomes rich and thriving not because of a rich government but a rich community. Well, a rich community depends on a sustainable economy with a large energetic population. The population figure is not to be relied on as you cannot tell if the province is attracting more people in than pulling people out. Therefore, we can take a look at the net migration data:

 

Year	SK	AB	Canada
	Net Number of Immigrants
1991/1992	-8,481	2,983	316,659
1992/1993	-6,348	-1,181	303,294
1993/1994	-5,431	-1,630	289,391
1994/1995	-3,652	-556	285,464
1995/1996	-2,161	7,656	291,764
1996/1997	-2,794	26,282	292,873
1997/1998	-1,940	43,089	309,234
1998/1999	-4,333	25,191	276,930
1999/2000	-7,947	22,674	285,817
2000/2001	-8,410	20,457	269,220
2001/2002	-8,820	26,235	290,490
2002/2003	-5,141	11,903	274,899
2003/2004	-4,521	10,606	261,380
2004/2005	-9,515	34,423	285,544
2005/2006	-7,083	45,795	285,868
2006/2007	1,549	33,809	305,062
Net Number 1991-2007	-85,028	307,736	4,623,889
Source: Tables for migration: interprovincial 2008/2009, Statistics Canada, Demography Division.

 

Interprovincial migration in Saskatchewan
Year	SK	AB	Canada
	Net Number of Immigrants
2009/2010	2,153	-3271	183759
2010/2011	545	8,443	212534
2011/2012	1,878	27,652	197644
2012/2013	392	38,598	194647
2013/2014	−1,839	35,382	200971
2014/2015	−4,528	21,594	204198
2015/2016	−4,272	−15,108	174923
2016/2017	−5,760	−15,559	255297
2017/2018	−8,475	−3,247	214080
2018/2019	−9,688	5,542	252750
2019/2020	−12,256	8,400	262310
Net 2009/2020	-41,850	108,426	2,353,113
Source: Statistics Canada, table 051-0012: Interprovincial migrants, by age group and sex, Canada, provinces and territories, annual; https://www.statista.com/ statistics/586457/net-interprovincial-migrants-saskatchewan/

 

It can be seen that the Saskatchewan Party is doing a better job in attracting and retaining migrants though it still needs to learn from Alberta and other provinces of the country.

 

IV. Platforms

Both parties have made some proposals while the Saskatchewan Party focuses more on the economy and finance issues while the NDP focuses on the health and COVID-19 issues:

 

	Economy	Health	Education	Social and Environment	Labor	Governance
Sask Party	Reduce taxes for small businesses as the province emerges from the coronavirus pandemic, a home renovation tax credit of 10.5 per cent on up to $20,000 of eligible renovations, continue to invest in Saskatoon to ensure the city remains an engine of growth in the province, ensure the province has a strong, growing economy that will support a great quality of life for families	Increase supports for D/deaf and Deafblind Saskatchewan residents, hiring 300 new continuing care aides, reducing the maximum cost of ambulance calls by 50% and eliminating inter-hospital ambulance costs, more aides for long-term care facilities and home care services, expand the province’s insulin pump program to everyone with Type 1 diabetes, $6 million per year to expand autism funding to more children	Increase the Saskatchewan Advantage Scholarship by 50%	Increase yearly funding to the SK veteran service club support to about 15 times the original amount,  restart the community rink affordability grant,  increasing the seniors income plan to a maximum of $360 month, restart the active family benefits ($150-200 per year per child), encourage new childcare spaces with subsidies, reduce SaskPower bills by 10% for one year starting in December		A balanced provincial budget by 2024
NDP	Bring in a procurement model that would make putting local people to work a priority, removing the provincial sales tax on construction labor	Investment in mental health  and addictions treatment, in surgery and outpatient centres, hiring 700 more home care staff, improving access to health care in rural areas	Smaller classrooms with a $125 million investment	Gender balanced cabinet, closing gender pay gap, putting an end to commercial development in urban parks, a wealth tax of one per cent for those with a net wealth of $15 million, 50 per cent renewable electricity by 2030 and 100 per cent emissions-free electricity by 2050, exploring increasing capacity of geothermal power, lower SGI premiums for drivers by 7% and every driver $100 rebate, and increase child care spaces while keeping the rate at $25 per day, bringing back the Saskatchewan Transportation Company	Minimum wage to $15/hr, ban high-heel dress codes	Strengthening of conflict of interest rules for MLAs and all lobbying to be made public, banning of corporate and union donations to political parties and bring in a cap on contributions, a full public inquiry into GTH
Green Party		Full health benefits to everyone,  including dental, optical and mental health coverage, along with complementary and alternative healing practices
David Giles: Saskatchewan election tracker 2020: Here’s what the parties are promising, Global News, 16 Oct 2010, https://cfox.com/news/7339203/saskatchewan-election-2020-tracker-promises/; Moe to talk economy in Saskatoon, Meili to focus on jobs announcement in Regina, the Canadian Press, 16 Oct 2020, https://www.humboldtjournal.ca/moe-to-talk-economy-in-saskatoon-meili-to-focus-on-jobs-announcement-in-regina-1.24221607; Erin Thorp: Week Three: Saskatchewan General Election 2020, Hill+Knowlton Strategies, 20 Oct 2020, see the site: https://hkstrategies.ca/en/week-three-saskatchewan-general-election-2020/.

 

Some of the notable suggestions by NDP are: improvement of mental health policies, mandatory requirement of mask wearing for public gathering places, encouragement of hiring local workers and contractors, increasing use of green power and strengthening the conflict of interest rules. The Green Party’s suggestion on full benefits is also attractive, but a feasibility study needs to be conducted. For the Saskatchewan Party, the tax reduction for small businesses should be applauded, and emphasis on a healthy sustainable community is nothing but wise.

 

V. Conclusion

A good government should be one well-informed, based on scientific and democratic decision making, accountable and sustainable. No matter which party wins the election, the majority party should still listen to the minority parties and take precautions in big capital decisions. The author believes in a mechanism to get the businesses running efficiently and effectively without too much government intervention except for necessary. Feeding one fish is not as good as teaching one to fish.

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[i] Angus Reid Institute: Saskatchewan Election: Voters lean heavily toward re-electing Sask Party, disenchanted by lack of third option, 15 Oct 2020; please take time to read the survey by clicking: http://angusreid.org/saskatchewan-election-2020/.

[ii] Please note that most of the data in the comparison comes from: Arthur White-Crummey: Battle of the records: Which party is better on growth, jobs, cuts and debt? 23 Oct 2020, please take time to view the whole interesting article by clicking the following link: https://leaderpost.com/news/politics/sask-election/battle-of-the-records-which-party-is-better-on-growth-jobs-and-debt.

[iii] Arthur White-Crummey: Meili confident as he campaigns in Regina, Regina Leader-Post, 24 Oct 2020, https://www.pressreader.com/canada/regina-leader-post/20201024/281487868843476.

[iv] Erin Duffin: Number of Recent Immigrants in Saskatchewan  2001-2020, Oct 5, 2020, https://www.statista.com/statistics/609178/number-of-immigrants-in-saskatchewan/.