(Picture from Heywood Yu of the Canadian Press )
Abstract: Scott Moe secured the Saskatchewan Party's fifth-straight majority, defeating challenger Carla Beck's NDP that was looking to take back government for the first time since 2007. Saskatchewan Party will form a majority government of 34 in the 61-seat legislature. However, there is a sharp divide between the rural and urban areas. The NDP made its big gains through Regina and Saskatoon, going 12-for-12 in the Queen City and winning in 13 out of 14 Saskatoon constituencies. There is now a situation where the cities go one way and they have a very different set of values and issues and concerns than the rural areas, which is not healthy in SK as well as elsewhere in Canada. Some of the political veterans such as Christine Tell and Laura Loss have lost the race. Problems facing Saskatchewan Party are lack of advocacy and campaigns. On the contrary, Carrla Beck speaks up on issues in consensus, transparency, accountability and integrity. She has also emphasized reaching a lower crime rate and a larger role in the committees. Moreover, the NDP members are active attending gatherings and visiting families, making NDP visible visually, virtually and heard verbally while they advocate a more vibrant, inclusive and innovative society (with incentives to small businesses and rebates on gas taxes, as well as removal of PST on properties). Due to population variance, there are several boundary changes proposed for Regina’s constituencies. Two previous ones no longer exist, with some new ones encompassing part of some older ones. While there are reasons to consider the population change every now and then, consistency and sustainability should be pursued. On the one hand, Saskatchewan Party has done a better job in getting a good representation of visible minorities in its candidates. On the other hand, NDP has done a better job in getting a good representation of women (and perhaps too good to some extent) and indigenous people in its candidates. About 54 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballots in the 2024 Saskatchewan provincial election, only a slight increase from the 2020 election of just under 53 per cent. Sask. United has nabbed about 4% of the total votes, yet no one of them has got a seat, while the total situation may change considerably if the 4% went to either of the two big parties. To account for the above, the NDP candidates are more active with louder voices and more appearances through mail, email or social media. Public Relations seems also missing for Saskatchewan Party during the election period. Some marketing consultants and project professionals may need to get involved, and detailed analysis of the past elections should be made for suggestions for the future to be put forward. Nevertheless, this party is better poised to lead the province with a stronger economy slogan, a better budget plan (a smaller budget and a faster time to balance) and a much stronger export sector. There is a need for more advocacy and campaigns so that the party can also be felt visually, virtually and verbally. This is for both promotion and accountability. The minority groups need more training and participation in various activities though they are a vital dynamic force in the political campaigns. Encouragement and notifications need to be sent to the young people including university students as their role is growing geometrically. Funds and efforts need to be spent in health care, education and training (including practical training to update the skills), ecological agriculture and infrastructure and logistics. Also, attention need to be paid to areas where monopoly becomes the obstacle. While professional training is necessary, there need to be different levels of work allowing people of different skills and knowledge to get in the workforce. In a word, Saskatchewan Party people need to listen to NDP and some independent groups for their valuable insights and constructive ideas, and learn from the lessons obtained through their seat losses in the two big cities.
Key
Words: Advocacy and
campaigns, economy, budget, area divide, health and education
I.
General Situation
1.
Saskatchewan Party Majority
Scott
Moe secured the Saskatchewan Party's fifth-straight majority, defeating
challenger Carla Beck's NDP that was looking to take back government for the first
time since 2007. Saskatchewan Party will form a majority government in the
61-seat legislature.
The
Saskatchewan Party won 34 of the 61 ridings to form a majority government with
244, 037 votes and the NDP won 27 ridings with 188, 373 votes to form the
Official Opposition. No third party won a seat. While still a clear majority
for the Sask. Party, it’s a big drop from the 2020 victories in 48 out of 61
ridings[1].
2.
Rural-Urban Divide
However,
there is a sharp divide between the rural and urban areas. The electoral map following the election day
shows a divided province; Saskatchewan’s two major cities are almost completely
orange and the rural areas remain green. The NDP made its big gains through
Regina and Saskatoon, going 12-for-12 in the Queen City and winning in 13 out
of 14 Saskatoon constituencies. Moe said his government heard the message sent
by voters that there is unhappiness in how the province is delivering health
care, education and making life affordable[2].
Political
analyst Ken Coates said the results emerging on Monday night made him nervous.
"You're looking at a province here that's going off in two different
directions." Coates noted they won almost all the wealthier parts of the
cities — in recent elections and could claim to understand urban areas, which made
a more rapid notable change in this election. "Now you're looking at a
situation where the cities go one way and they have a very different set of
values and issues and concerns than the rural areas." It's a trend that
has played out across Canada in recent years, he noted. "Southern Ontario
has gotten the same mess. Manitoba is exactly in the same situation, and
British Columbia's recent election is tied entirely to the rural-urban split.
"I don't think this is very healthy for Canada and our politicians on all
sides have work to do."[3]
3.
Unexpected Defeat of Old MLA Members
According
to CTV News, some of the political veterans of Saskatchewan Party lost to new
hands of NDP[4]
with the reasons yet to be explored.
Long-time
Saskatchewan Party MLA and Minister Christine Tell was not re-elected in the
Regina Wascana Plains constituency Monday night, losing to the NDP’s Brent
Blakely. Tell had held the seat since 2007, being re-elected in 2011, 2016, and
2020. Blakely enters the legislature as a political newcomer. His previous
experience includes a 35 year career as an educator.
Sask.
Party candidate Gene Makowsky lost his seat in Regina University after representing
the Saskatchewan Party since 2011. The former Saskatchewan Roughrider lineman
fell to the NDP’s candidate, Sally Housser. Housser touts an extensive
background with the New Democrats in several capacities, working as the chief
of staff for Saskatchewan’s official opposition and as a press secretary for
former Alberta NDP Leader and Premier Rachel Notley and former federal NDP
Leader Jack Layton. She has also worked in communications in Manitoba and as a
senior manager of public affairs for the Canadian Strategy Group. Regina
University was essentially a new constituency-made up of the defunct Regina
Gardiner Park combined with portions of the previous iterations of Regina
University, Regina Wascana Plains and Regina Douglas Park.
Minister
of Parks, Culture and Sport and Status of Women Laura Ross was ousted from her
seat in Regina Rochdale by a margin of just over 600 votes. Ross had held a
seat in Regina for the Sask Party since 2007. Going into the election, Regina
Rochdale was redistributed, tightening the margin between the Sask Party and
NDP in the constituency. NDP candidate Joan Pratchler enters politics with a
storied background that includes education and healthcare.
II.
Problems Revealed
1.
Advocacy and Campaigns
Although
NDP could not make a majority in this provincial election, many of their ideas
can be borrowed. Carrla Beck has seen issues in consensus, transparency, accountability
and integrity. She has also emphasized a lower crime rate and a larger role in
the committees. Moreover, I like their actions like attending gatherings and
visiting families, making NDP visible visually, virtually and verbally and
advocating a more vibrant, inclusive and innovative society (with incentives to
small businesses and rebates on gas taxes, and PST on properties removed).
2.
Boundary Change
Due
to population variance, there are several boundary changes proposed for
Regina’s constituencies[5].
Two
constituencies – Regina Gardiner Park and Regina Rosement – no longer exist in
the proposed redrawn maps. Regina South Albert and Regina Mount Royal are new
constituencies on the map.
South
Albert includes parts of the previous Pasqua and University constituencies.
Mount Royal overtook part of the northwestern portion of the current Pasqua
constituency, along with consuming Regina Rosemont and the southwestern tip of
Regina Rochdale.
While
there are reasons to consider the population change every now and then,
consistency and sustainability should be pursued and an oversight body consisting
of a relevant ratio of Saskatchewan Party, NDP and other parties’ MLAs.
3.
Unbalanced Representation
On
the one hand, Saskatchewan Party has done a better job in getting a good
representation of visible minorities in its candidates. On the other hand, NDP
has done a better job in getting a good representation of women (and perhaps
too good to some extent) and indigenous people in its candidates.
According
to Saskatchewan Party’s spokesman, Matthew Glover, about one-quarter of the
party’s candidates in this election are visible minorities and about
one-quarter are women. Three of the party’s candidates are Indigenous. Based on
the 2021 Saskatchewan census, the party’s 25 per cent share of visible
minorities as candidates outstrips the percentage of visible minorities in the
province’s population as a whole, which was less than 15 per cent in the 2021
census. It’s also higher than the percentage in Regina and Saskatoon, which was
about 21 per cent in 2021. As for women, though, the last census showed
Saskatchewan has slightly more women than men, so the party’s share of female
candidates lags the population by half. And the Indigenous population has grown
to about 17 per cent — more than three times the percentage of Indigenous
candidates fielded by the party[6].
In
the 2020 provincial elections, the NDP ran many racialized immigrant candidates
in Saskatoon and Regina. This time the Sask. Party has 13 such candidates to
the NDP's three. Daniel Westlake, assistant professor in the department of
political studies at University of Saskatchewan talked about immigrant representation
of the parties. "Sask. Party doesn't surprise me, but I am surprised not
to see the NDP with more ethnic, racialized minority candidates," he said.
"In large part because the NDP has been quite proactive in a lot of other
provinces at ensuring they've recruited a diverse slate."[7]
4.
Low Voter Turnout
About
54 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballots in the 2024 Saskatchewan
provincial election, only a slight increase from the 2020 election of just
under 53 per cent[8].
It is not yet known why there is a consistently low turnout in the provincial
election. Some of the reasons may include their lack of knowledge of the
candidates or their dissatisfaction with some of the politicians.
5.
Vote Split
Moe's
concerns about vote-splitting by the Sask. United may come true and cost
Christine Tell her Regina Wascana Plains seat. The NDP is currently projected
to win with 47.1 per cent of the vote, while the Sask Party's Tell has 43.2 per
cent and the Sask. United has 4.5 per cent. If the votes for the SUP can be put
jointly to Tell, there will be another story.
However,
Sask. United's overall vote share is very small compared to the Sask Party's 53
per cent and the NDP's 39.4 per cent popular support. The SUP nabbed four per
cent of the popular vote, while the remaining parties grabbed a combined 3.7
per cent[9].
III.
Reasons
1.
NDP
1)
More advocacy
It
seems that the NDP candidates are more active with louder voices and more
appearances through mail, email or social media. This may result in those indecisive or in
other parties to switch to them.
2)
Shift of Focus
(1)
Cities to Other Areas
The
traditional NDP vote base is the cities, with more people affected by different
unions or by education of new ideas. However, they are now trying to tap into
the new market like small towns and the rural areas.
(2)
Individuals to Businesses and Organizations
Just
several weeks before the provincial election, Carla Beck and some other NDP
candidates appeared on a meeting hosted by Regina Chamber of Commerce, which
marked their emphasis on small businesses and organizations. And Carla Beck’s
lecture was well received.
2.
Saskatchewan Party
1)
Lack of Media Coverage
Due
to some reasons, the Saskatchewan Party candidates were not as active and
visible as their NDP counterparts. The writer thinks that they need a stronger
support team including volunteers. Engagement with some consulting companies
regarding campaigns may also work.
2)
Issues of Some Candidates
In
February Moose Jaw Wakamow MLA Greg Lawrence — who was a Sask. Party MLA caucus
member until the day before he was officially charged by Moose Jaw police with
assault and assault by choking[10]. In May, the Saskatchewan
NDP requested COIC investigations into two MLAs from the Saskatchewan Party,
alleging that both appeared to have “wrongfully cashed in on government
contracts” through their private businesses[11].
3)
Lack of Expertise
As
mentioned above, some marketing consultants and project professionals may need
to get involved, and detailed analysis of the past elections should be made for
suggestions for the future to be put forward.
IV.
Looking into the Future
1. Saskatchewan
Party More Poised to Lead the Province
1) A
stronger economy slogan
Beck pledged to spend more to fix health care and
education, pause the gas tax, and remove the provincial sales tax on children's
clothes and some grocery items. Moe said his government heard the message sent
by voters that there is unhappiness in how the province is delivering health
care, education and making life affordable.[12] While some of them like
health care and education are very important issues, a stronger economy lays a
solid foundation for solving the above problems. A plant needs to have a root,
and a river needs to have a source of water.
2) More
practical and realistic policies
Moe's platform would cost an additional $1.2 billion
over four years. He said his tax reduction plan would save a family of four
$3,400 over four years. It also includes tax credits for those looking to grow
their families or put their children in sports and arts activities. Moe
promised deficits in the first two years, followed by a surplus in 2027. Beck
said her promises would cost an additional $3.5 billion over four years, with
plans to cut what she calls Saskatchewan Party waste and to balance the budget
by the end of her term[13].
3) Controlled
budget
Grant Devine and his colleagues had completely damaged
the credit, to the point that we had a C or less credit rating and couldn’t get
any entity at all to lend us money. We were at the point of bankruptcy - as a
resource-rich province. To pull us away from the brink, the NDP had to cut
costs where they could. They closed some rural hospitals (which the Devine
government had built fairly recently) and some schools, raised some taxes, and
clawed us back into a budget surplus by the early 2000s. Some older people may
remember that SIAST was originally a hospital, later turned into a school, due
to reckless and inappropriate planning. A more conservative and sound budget
system is needed to safe-guard the financial resources of the province, and the
writer believes SaskParty is doing better in this regard though some areas may
still have room for improvement.
4) Ethical
issues
The reader agrees to the stand Moe takes on
clear-gender washrooms in schools. First, men and women are different
biologically, and that difference should be natural. Secondly, if that
difference is blurred or confused, many other things will follow suit (in
things like parenthood), opening the Pandora Box. Thirdly, this may bring about
lower and lower population and the future of lost generations. Last but not least, boys and girls below 18
cannot be responsible for themselves. What would happen if they are overdosed
with cocaine or if they are over-drunken?
Moe said his first order of business if re-elected
would be to ban "biological boys" from using school changing rooms
with "biological girls."[14] He later added that he
would consult with school boards about change room issues after board elections
are complete next week. "I'm not going to preclude where those discussions
will land," Moe said[15]. The writer totally understands
his considerations but still maintains that boys’ change rooms should not be
mixed with the girls’.
5) A
clear vision
According to the Saskatchewan Party plan, the
provincial budget will be balanced by the year 2027, and this will be achieved
while income tax will be saved by $3,400 annually for a family of four and
$3,100 for a senior couple over 4 years (with the highest tax free threshold of
income in Canada). Their vision is to grow, build and promote Saskatchewan with
$50 billion already in export trade annually, 70% up since 2018[16].
2. Areas
for Improvement
1) Need
of more advocacy and campaigns
There is a need for more advocacy and campaigns so
that SaskParty can also be felt visually, virtually and verbally. This is for
both promotion and accountability.
2) Role
play of minority groups
It is very interesting to see that some minority
groups are very active and have shown their muscles. In the constituency of Regina
Coronation Park, though Riaz Ahmad of SaskParty from Pakistan failed after
being nominated in 2023, Noor Burki of NDP from Pakistan won the election. In
the constituency of Regina Pasqua, though Muhammad Fiaz of SaskParty from
Pakistan was elected and has been serving as MLA for Regina Pasqua since the
2016 provincial election, Bhajan Brar of NDP from Punjab of India won the
election. David Chan of SaskParty, probably of Hong Kong origin, won the
election in Yorkton though it was the first time for him to be nominated.
The writer feels that the minority groups are a vital
dynamic force in the political campaigns. However, they need more training and
participation in various activities.
3) Encouragement
of young voters like university graduates
Though, it is not yet known why almost half of the
citizens did not come out to vote, encouragement and notifications need to be
sent to them. Young people are more important as they can gain the momentum and
their role will be greater and greater.
4) Investment
into the future
In Saskatchewan, there is one nurse to 14 patients,
and some patients have received care in beds in hallways while others have
slept in their car because there are no beds[17]. Funds and efforts need
to be spent in health care, education and training (including practical
training to update the skills), ecological agriculture and infrastructure and
logistics.
Also, attention need to be paid to areas where
monopoly becomes the obstacle. While professional training is necessary, there
need to be different levels of work allowing people of different skills and
knowledge to get in the workforce. Actually, pharmacists giving prescriptions
is one way of removing the barriers, and similar reforms need to be made in the
legal industry, making notaries and paralegals available to the public for some
part of the legal work.
V. Conclusion
The Saskatchewan Party has won the provincial
election, yet there are still a lot to improve, and they need to listen to
other parties and groups and borrow some of their insightful and constructive
ideas.
摘要：斯科特·莫 （Scott Moe） 击败了挑战者卡拉·贝克 （Carla Beck） 的新民党，获得了萨省党的连续第五个多数席位，后者自 2007 年以来首次寻求夺回政府主导权。萨斯喀彻温省党将在 61 个席位的立法机构中组建一个由 34 个席位组成的多数政府。然而，农村和城市地区之间存在着明显的鸿沟。新民党在里贾纳和萨斯卡通取得了巨大胜利，在皇后城以 12 比 12 获胜，并在萨斯卡通 14 个选区中的 13 个获胜。现在的情况是，城市与农村地区有着截然不同的价值观、问题和关注点，这在萨省和加拿大其他地方都是不健康的。一些政治老手，如克里斯汀·泰尔（Christine Tell）和劳拉·洛斯（Laura Loss）已经输掉了竞选。萨省党面临的问题是缺乏宣传和竞选拓展活动。相反，卡拉·贝克在共识、透明度、问责制和诚信方面大声疾呼。她还强调要降低犯罪率并在委员会中发挥更大的作用。此外，新民党成员积极参加聚会和探访家庭，使其在视觉、网络和听觉上都可触及，同时他们倡导一个更有活力、更具包容性和创新性的社会（为小企业提供激励和实行汽油税退税，以及取消房产的 PST）。由于人口差异，里贾纳的选区提出了几项边界变化。以前的两个选区已不复存在，一些新的选区包含了一些旧选区的一部分。虽然有理由时不时地考虑人口变化，但应该追求一致性和可持续性。一方面，萨省党在候选人中让有色少数族裔得到良好代表方面做得更好。另一方面，新民党在候选人中争取女性（也许在某种程度上太好了）和原住民的良好代表性方面做得更好。在 2024 年萨省选举中，约 54% 的合格选民投了票，仅比 2020 年选举中略低于 53% 的选民比例略有增加。萨省联合党获得了大约 4% 的总选票，但他们中没有一个人获得席位，而如果这 4% 的选票投给了两个大党中的任何一个，总体情况可能会发生巨大变化。导致上述情况发生的原因有，新民党候选人更加活跃，声音更大，通过邮件、电子邮件或社交媒体露面的次数更多。在选举期间，萨省党似乎也缺少公共关系方面的运作。一些营销顾问和项目专业人士可能需要参与进来，并应对过去的选举进行详细分析，以便为未来提出建议。尽管如此，该党更有能力以更强大的经济口号、更好的预算计划（更小的预算和更快的财务平衡时间）和更强劲的出口部门来领导该省。萨省党需要更多的宣传和拓展活动，这样也能在视觉、网络和语言上让人们感受到这个党的动向。这既是为了拓展宣传，也是为了更好地实施问责制。少数群体需要更多的培训和参与各种活动，尽管他们是政治运动中的重要动力。萨省党还需要向包括大学生在内的年轻人提供鼓励和传送通知，因为他们的作用将呈几何级数增长。同时，还需要将资金和精力投入到医疗保健、教育和培训（包括更新技能的实用培训）、生态农业以及基础设施和物流方面。 此外，还需要关注垄断成为障碍的领域。虽然专业培训是必要的，但需要有不同等级的工作，让具有不同技能和知识的人都进入劳动力市场。总之，萨省党员需要听取新民党和一些独立团体的宝贵意见和建设性建议，并从他们在两个大城市失去席位这一事态中吸取教训。
关键词： 宣传和拓展活动， 经济， 预算， 区域分割， 健康和教育
[1]
Karen Bartko: Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party projected to form majority
government, Global News, Oct 28, h2024; Michael Joel-Hansen: Majority rules:
Saskatchewan Party does it again, wins fifth-straight provincial election,
Saskatoon StarPhoenix, Oct 28, 2024; Halyna Mihalik: Sask. NDP wins all but 1
seat in Regina and Saskatoon after final votes counted, CBC news, 10 Nov 2024.
Please check the article reported from Saskatoon at https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/saskatchewan-election-results-finalised-close-race-with-opposition-1.7379833.
[2]
Michael Joel-Hansen: Majority rules: Saskatchewan Party does it again, wins
fifth-straight provincial election, Saskatoon StarPhoenix, Oct 28, 2024; also
check Note 1.
[3]
Karen Bartko: Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan
Party projected to form majority government, Global News, Oct 28, 2024.
[4]
David Prisciak and Drew Postey: Here are the upsets of Saskatchewan's 2024
election, CTV News, Oct. 29, 2024.
[5]
Caitlin Brezinski and Brendan Ellis: Here's what Sask. constituencies could
look like for the next provincial election, CTV News, July 29, 2022.
[6]
Phil Tank: Tank: Saskatchewan candidates reflect diversity, but will they get
elected? Saskatoon StarPhoenix, Oct 24, 2024.
[7]
Pratyush Dayal: Representation, strategy or both? Sask. election sees increase
in racialized immigrant candidates, CBC News, Oct 25, 2024
[8]
Joshua Gwozdz: Saskatchewan sees low voter turnout for 2024 provincial
election, Global News, October 30, 2024.
[9]
Moira Wyton: 3 key takeaways from the Saskatchewan provincial election, CBC,
Oct 29, 2024.
[10] Murray
Mandryk: Latest Sask. Party MLA criminal charges a disaster for Moe, Regina
Leader-Post, Feb 1, 2024.
[11]
David Prisciak: Conflict of Interest Commissioner investigating Sask Party's
Cockrill and Grewal, CTV News, Aug 28, 2024.
[12]
Jeremy Simes and Aaron Sousa: Saskatchewan Party wins fifth straight majority
government, Scott Moe back as premier, the Canadian Press, Oct 28, 2024, https://www.sasktoday.ca/national-news/saskatchewan-party-wins-fifth-straight-majority-government-scott-moe-back-as-premier-9718795.
[13]
Michael Joel-Hansen: Majority rules: Saskatchewan Party does it again, wins
fifth-straight provincial election, Saskatoon StarPhoenix, Oct 28, 2024.
[14]
Karen Bartko: Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party projected to form majority
government, Global News, Oct 28, 2024.
[15]
Jeremy Simes: Premier Scott Moe unveils new, smaller Sask. cabinet and says
change room policy no longer 1st priority, the Canadian Press, 7 Nov 2024.
Please also take time to read the article by clicking the following link: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/scott-moe-new-smaller-cabinent-shuffle-1.7376658.
[16]
Please check the website: www.saskparty.com/ourplan.
[17] Saskatchewan
nurses rally to call for next government to fix hospital staffing, the Canadian
Press, Oct 3, 2024.
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