Peng Jiang, Fengtou.ca, June 2, 2026
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/670T7RhClsxu54yDRSkq0w
As the North American trade landscape approaches a critical juncture, Canada has finally taken the initiative. Recently, Canadian Minister of Trade with the United States Dominic LeBlanc traveled to Washington, D.C., where he not only held face-to-face talks with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer but also formally presented his “bottom line” to both the United States and Mexico: Canada hopes to renew the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
However, in the face of Canada’s desire for stability, the Trump administration appears to favor sweeping changes. This North American standoff, centered on a $1.3 trillion trade pie, is becoming increasingly delicate.
With the July 1 deadline approaching, Canada takes the initiative to “lay its cards on the table”
Under the terms of CUSMA, the three countries must make a clear decision by July 1—marking the sixth anniversary of the agreement’s entry into force—as to whether they will renew the agreement or begin renegotiations.
To steady the ship, Leblanc set a clear tone in his letter to the United States and Mexico: CUSMA is “highly beneficial” to the three countries and to the highly integrated North American economy. However, he also left room for maneuver, acknowledging that “some countries may propose improvements.”
This trip to Washington marks the second face-to-face meeting between LeBlanc and Greer since last October. At that time, Trump, angered by an anti-tariff television ad aired by the Ontario provincial government, abruptly halted negotiations with Canada. Although the two sides held a one-hour video conference last week to ease tensions, a face-to-face clash of interests remains inevitable.
The Trump administration’s “true intentions lie elsewhere”
Canada is eager to renew the agreement because CUSMA covers approximately $1.3 trillion in annual trade in goods and services between Canada and the U.S., and serves as a “bulletproof vest” protecting a large number of Canadian exports from the impact of Trump’s tariff measures.
However, over the past year and a half, the signals from the White House have been very clear: the Trump administration does not intend to simply renew the agreement but hopes to use this opportunity to make “radical” and significant changes to its terms.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. side’s core demands target two key areas:
1. Reshoring the auto industry: Requiring that at least 50% of auto parts be manufactured in the United States to qualify for duty-free access to the U.S. market.
2. Breaking into the dairy market: Applying further pressure on Canada to open access to its strictly protected dairy market.
Carney’s “Tai Chi” Approach: More Issues Between the U.S. and Mexico
Faced with strong pressure from the U.S. and a situation where Mexico appears to be “jumping the gun” in negotiations with the U.S., Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has remained remarkably calm.
Carney revealed a key point to the media on Tuesday: there are actually more issues between the U.S. and Mexico than between the U.S. and Canada.
“There are nearly 60 US-Mexico issues related to USMCA, which is roughly twice the number of issues between us [Canada and the U.S.],” Carney noted, adding that the fundamental disagreement between Canada and the U.S. lies in the tariffs the U.S. has imposed on Canadian steel, aluminum, automobiles, and forestry products—tariffs that Carney bluntly stated “violate trade agreements.”
In fact, the U.S. held two days of formal bilateral talks with Mexico last week and plans to hold two more rounds of negotiations in June and July. However, in Carney’s view, the trade friction Mexico faces is more complex, while Canada still has ample room to negotiate on its core interests.
July 1 Is Merely a “Formality”; the Real Standoff Will Come in 2036
From a regulatory standpoint, July 1 is not the so-called “deadline.”
According to the text of the agreement, if the three countries agree to renew it on July 1, CUSMA will remain in effect until 2036. But the provisions also leave a “Sword of Damocles” hanging over the agreement: any country can unilaterally withdraw from the agreement at any time by giving six months’ notice.
This means that even if the three parties reach a consensus on renewal on July 1, the Trump administration can still use the “six-month notice for withdrawal” as leverage over the next decade to force Canada and Mexico to make concessions in the automotive, dairy, and even energy sectors at any time.
Conclusion: A Never-Ending Trade Standoff
Canada’s formal notification of renewal is merely the opening act in this North American trade drama. With a trade volume of $1.3 trillion, none of the three parties can afford the cost of “smashing the table,” but the Trump administration’s obsession with “Made in America” is bound to make the upcoming negotiations highly contentious.
The joint review on July 1 may temporarily maintain a semblance of peace, but the behind-the-scenes battle over tariffs, supply chains, and market share has only just entered uncharted waters. For Canada, finding a way to appease Washington’s “protectionist” sentiments without compromising its core red lines will be a protracted battle that will severely test its political acumen.
(Translator's Note: USMCA renewal in Canada has not been successful, as the United States officially declined to extend the trade pact for another 16-year term. While Canada and Mexico supported renewing the agreement, the U.S. chose not to extend it in its current form.)
1.3万亿贸易盘迎大考！加拿大希望续签《加美墨协定》 ，特朗普政府却想“推倒重来”？
蒋鹏，枫投Fengtou.ca，2026-06-02
摘要：近日，加拿大对美贸易部长多米尼克·勒布朗（Dominic LeBlanc）启程前往华盛顿，不仅与美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）举行了面对面会谈，更正式向美国和墨西哥两国递交了“底牌”：加拿大希望续签《加美墨协定》（CUSMA）。
在北美贸易格局即将迎来关键节点之际，加拿大终于主动出击。近日，加拿大对美贸易部长多米尼克·勒布朗（Dominic LeBlanc）启程前往华盛顿，不仅与美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔（Jamieson Greer）举行了面对面会谈，更正式向美国和墨西哥两国递交了“底牌”：加拿大希望续签《加美墨协定》（CUSMA）。
然而，面对加拿大的“求稳”心态，特朗普政府似乎更倾向于“大改”。这场围绕1.3万亿元贸易盘的北美博弈，正变得愈发微妙。
7月1日大限将至，加拿大主动“交底”
根据CUSMA的条款规定，这三个国家必须在7月1日——即协定生效满六年之际——明确表态：是选择续签，还是开启重新谈判。
为了稳住阵脚，勒布朗在致美墨两国的信函中明确定调：CUSMA对三国以及高度一体化的北美经济“高度有利”。不过，他也留有余地，承认“可能有国家会提出改进建议”。
此次华盛顿之行，是勒布朗与格里尔自去年10月以来的第二次面对面会晤。彼时，由于安大略省政府播放了一则反关税的电视广告，特朗普一怒之下中断了与加拿大的谈判。尽管双方在上周进行了一场一小时的视频会议缓和气氛，但面对面的利益交锋依然不可避免。
特朗普政府“醉翁之意不在酒”
加拿大急于续签，是因为CUSMA涵盖了加美两国每年约1.3万亿元的商品和服务贸易，更是保护大批加拿大出口商品免受特朗普关税大棒冲击的“防弹衣”。
但过去一年半以来，白宫释放的信号却十分明确：特朗普政府并不打算直接续签，而是希望借机对条款进行“伤筋动骨”的重大修改。
据《华尔街日报》披露，美方的核心诉求直指两大要害：
1、汽车产业回流：要求汽车零部件中必须有至少50% 在美国本土制造，才能获得免税进入美国市场的资格。
2、撬开乳制品市场：进一步施压加拿大，要求开放其严格保护的乳制品市场准入渠道。
卡尼的“太极”：美墨之间的问题更多
面对美国的强势施压，以及墨西哥似乎在与美国的谈判中“抢跑”的局面，加拿大总理马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）显得颇为淡定。
卡尼在周二向媒体透露了一个关键信息：美墨之间的问题其实比美加之间更多。
“美国与墨西哥之间存在近60个与CUSMA相关的问题，这大约是我们（美加）之间问题数量的两倍。”卡尼指出，加拿大与美国之间的根本分歧，在于美国对加拿大的钢铁、铝、汽车和林业产品征收的关税——卡尼直言，这些关税“违反了贸易协定”。
事实上，美国上周已经与墨西哥进行了为期两天的正式双边会谈，并计划在接下来的六月和七月再进行两轮谈判。但在卡尼看来，墨西哥面临的贸易摩擦更为复杂，加拿大在核心利益上仍有充足的博弈空间。
7月1日只是“过场”，真正的拉锯在2036年
从规则层面来看，7月1日并非所谓的“生死线”。
根据协定文本，如果三国在7月1日同意续签，CUSMA将继续有效至2036年。但条款也留下了一把“达摩克利斯之剑”：任何一国只要提前六个月发出通知，就可以在任何时候单方面退出该协定。
这意味着，即使7月1日三方达成了续签共识，特朗普政府依然可以在未来的十年里，用“提前六个月退出”作为筹码，随时逼迫加拿大和墨西哥在汽车、乳制品甚至能源领域做出让步。
结语：没有终点的贸易博弈
加拿大正式发出续签通知，只是这场北美贸易大戏的序幕。1.3万亿元的贸易体量让三方都无法承受“掀桌子”的代价，但特朗普政府对“美国制造”的执念，注定会让接下来的谈判充满火药味。
7月1日的联合审查或许能暂时维持表面的和平，但围绕关税、供应链和市场份额的暗战，才刚刚进入深水区。对于加拿大而言，如何在不触碰核心底线的前提下，安抚华盛顿的“贸易保护主义”情绪，将是一场极其考验政治智慧的持久战。
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