Thursday, January 25, 2018

2018:Saskatchewan’s Vision (2018年萨省的愿景)





I.                    A Brief Review of Saskatchewan’s Economy in 2017
If the data of 2016 is used, one can see the real GDP growth is -1%, which is the next lowest in Canada (while the data for AB is -3.8%).  If the data of a year from June 2016 to July 2017 is used, one can see the unemployment rate is the 5th highest (6.6%), but employment growth is the 3rd lowest (-0.2%), and the housing starts growth is the 2nd lowest (-5.2%, next to MB, which is -34%)[i].

SK’s economic growth was ranked 7th in Canada in 2017. However, with new delivery contracts with key customers in China and India and sustained oil prices, momentum may be able to pick up, and the growth rate may reach 2% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019, which may turn SK into the 4th and the 2nd strongest economy out of the 10 provinces[ii].

II.                 SWOT Analysis
1.         Strengths and Weaknesses
1)  Strengths
With a vast area, Saskatchewan is home to almost half of Canada's total cultivated farmland and the centre of Canadian crop production. It is recognized as a world leader in agricultural biotechnology and life sciences, with a research cluster that includes the Canadian Light Source synchrotron and Innovation Place research parks. It is also a world leader in carbon capture and storage, with expertise in enhanced oil recovery. In addition to agricultural exports of $14.4 billion in 2016[iii], the province is gaining worldwide attention for its wealth of minerals and energy resources (as the second largest oil-producing province and third-largest natural gas-producing province), cutting-edge research centres spawning high-tech industries, and rapidly expanding manufacturing sector[iv]. On the telecommunications front, Moose Jaw has become the first city in western Canada to be completely serviced by fibre optics. Saskatchewan also enjoys the lowest combined personal income tax rate[v], and one of Canada’s lowest corporate income tax rates for manufacturers and processors – as low as 10% for qualifying companies – and royalty rates among the lowest in Canada.

2)  Weaknesses
Although Saskatchewan has once led the national economy and embraced many good opportunities, Saskatchewan is facing both threats and challenges in a rapidly changing and more and more unsecure world. After talking with many local residents including some of MLAs, the author has summarized the following areas that Saskatchewan needs to establish or strengthen:

l  Sustainable revenue-producing industries
l  A balanced budget
l  Legislation protecting the common people and fighting inequity, injustice and unfair competition
l  A government that is accountable, forward-looking and willing to listen and adjust its policies with a clear broad vision of the future
l  Investment in the invisible asset – human capital, the best asset
l  Integrated and systematic management of the economy

Some problems are incurred due to the weaknesses, and they are:

A.     Government Deficit
Ombudsman Saskatchewan was busy in 2016. Within 4,406 Complaints received[vi], 3,419 were about provincial and municipal government entities and issues within its jurisdiction. This marked an increase of almost 22% over complaints from 2015 and an increase of 48% over 2014.
85% of the complaints were about provincial government ministries, agencies, Crown corporations and health entities.

On Sept 21, 2017, the provincial government gave $20 million to the College of Medicine to help it stay fully accredited, after previously asking the University of Saskatchewan to find that money itself. It is the latest in a string of budget changes, or outright reversals, since the finance minister first outlined the government's spending plans for the year. Here are a few examples:

l  Library funding restored: $4.8 million.
l  Funding for the funeral services of low-income people partially restored: $600,000.
l  Capping the reduction to grants-in-lieu for municipalities: $3 million.
l  Scrapping plan to reduce funding to community-based health organizations by 10 per cent: $1.5 million.

The government has also had to scoop a considerable amount of money from a contingency fund it established in March, after failing to achieve $125-million in reductions to employee compensation in 2017. A government spokesperson says the changes are being made after listening to feedback from the public. The interim Opposition Leader Nicole Sarauer said they seemed to shoot first and aim later, and she continued, the expenditures “shouldn't have been cut in the first place."[vii]

B.      Housing
As far as affordable housing is concerned, tt is reported that beginning from July a one-bedroom senior apartment under Regina Housing is charging over $700 exclusive of utilities. As rent is increased every year to reflect the market, the real affordable housing is already gone.

As far as market housing is concerned, As there is no rent control in Saskatchewan, rent is flexible here. However, senior people are complaining on rapid rent escalations. For example, a shared one-bedroom in Pioneer Village normally charges $2300 per month, and this is increased by $500 recently. The landlord is assumed to be responsible for maintenance and repair, especially walls, furnaces and roofs. However, if the tenant is not careful, and if the landlord is not staying at the property, should the landlord be the only one responsible for some major damages and repair cost?
The damage deposit is made to be deducted in case there is a damage. However, the damage deposit is seldom kept by the landlord as the Saskatchewan Rentalsman is very pro-tenants. What adds to the wound is that the Rentalsman Office is supervised by the Ministry of Social Services, which also pays to those low-income people for rent. Therefore, even if the landlord wins a case, the damage deposit will hardly be kept, as the government is paying for the tenants.

C.      Crown Corporations
Wall has mentioned the government is open to striking public private partnerships about strengthening the crown corporations, the head office, maybe creating jobs in the province. Well, to a greater extent, Wall is right regarding the function of a crown company. However, why should we sell off some of the shares? For cash, or for strategic partnership? If so, how? The writer recommends having an open mind to discuss the possibility of a public private partnership, but urges to also consider the potential consequences and prepare a forecast of the proposed partnership. Here we need to define the nature of the good or service, and we also need to address the issue of administrative monopoly.

SaskTel critic Warren McCall said[viii], privatizing more than 10% of SaskTel means SaskTel would be forced to pay federal income tax, resulting in less money staying in Saskatchewan. Also, selling SaskTel will mean the end of valuable dividends given to the government of Saskatchewan by SaskTel. Most people believe that selling part of SaskTel would lead to increases in Saskatchewan’s telecommunication cost. As for STC, Professor Weiying Zhang once said[ix], the shorter side of a barrel determines its capacity, and the position of the poor other than that of the rich, measures the degree of social development of an economy. STC is for those people on low income and without means of long-distance transportation. Dissolving STC will add to rural senior problems, increase the cost for health treatment, worsen the communication between rural and urban areas. As for SaskPower, it is said that some of the work at SaskPower will be outsourced to Swift Current or an American company in Kentucky. This may mean lost income to businesses in Saskatchewan, opportunity cost to make a beneficial cycle, and more payment made to external businesses.

D.     Film and Cultural Industries
Critics like MacKinnon blamed Wall’s 2012 decision to cancel the province’s film tax credit[x]. Jurisdictions all over the world compete in offering tax breaks to attract television and movie production. Saskatchewan’s credit subsidized more than half the labour costs for popular shows like Corner Gas and Little Mosque on the Prairie. Wall didn’t feel the government received enough in return and cancelled the program, prompting outrage from industry groups who claimed the province ultimately received more in tax revenue than it lost. The famous Kevin Dewalt of Minds Eye Film cannot continue his business with all his partners gone.

E.      Conflict of Interest
Former Saskatchewan Economic Director Bill Boyd announced on August 15, 2017 that he would resign from his MLA position on September 1. It is no big deal when an MLA resigns. But this time the difference is that, a few hours later, CBC website published a report on his relationship with a Saskatchewan investment company. There is the issue of overusing his title as well as the one of oversight of proper land transactions.

2.         Threats and Challenges
According to some recent news, sanctions against planemaker Bombardier Inc. and softwood lumber producers including West Fraser Timber Co. and Canfor Corp., as well as investigations into steel, aluminum and other industries threaten to make Canada one of the U.S.’s most-penalized trading partners. A former deputy chief economist at Canada’s international trade department said, “we’re facing a trade shock right now, in reality and in terms of rhetoric.” the sanctions against Canada are a reminder that even free trade deals don’t guarantee free trade. Furthermore, during the negotiations, a key U.S. demand is the removal of Chapter 19, in which there is a mechanism that allows companies to challenge anti-dumping and countervailing duty decisions made by other NAFTA-member countries[xi]

One thing most people may not be aware of is the loss of talents. Many immigrants come with a desire to settle down, but due to some factors there is a net outflow of people from Saskatchewan as shown from the table below:
Interprovincial Migration
Province of Destination
到达省
2012-2013 (%)
2013-2014 (%)
2014-2015 (%)
2015-2016 (%)
Average of the 4 Years
4年平均
PEI
爱德华王子岛
-14.63
-20
-14.29
88.89
9.99
NS 新斯科舍
-2.13
7.75
-1.21
4.99
2.35
NB
新不伦瑞克
7.76
-14.14
14.67
20.63
7.23
QB 魁北克
-12.63
0
7.51
13.44
2.08
ON 安大略
-15.63
1.26
12.60
23.38
5.40
MB 曼尼托巴
-5.93
7.21
-18.49
62.89
11.42
SK
萨斯喀彻温
-0.66
-18.67
15.57
-5.67
-2.36
AB 阿尔伯塔
-14.98
-0.67
-0.57
-19.24
-8.87
BC 卑诗
-3.23
-2.23
16.63
-27.73
-4.14
YK 育空
47.06
-36
-43.75
277.78
61.27
NT 新界
-21.95
21.95
-18.29
26.87
2.15
NU 努勒维特
11.29
4.35
12.12
-12.16
3.90
National Average平均
-2.14
-4.10
-1.46
37.84
7.54
Source:  Statistics Canada. Table 051-0019 - Interprovincial migrants, by province or territory of origin and destination, annual (persons), CANSIM (database).

For immigrants from foreign countries, there are recently some positive news:
l  EOI points for entrepreneur immigrants have been lowered to 80, with 265 people chosen in October 2017[xii]
l  More quotas have been granted for the EE category and entrepreneurship category with a total increase of 8%[xiii]
l  The list of skilled worker immigrant category will remain stable for about 5 years
l  A very good in demand skilled worker category demanding more people with practical skills (engineers, plumbers, technicians, roofers, agriculture or horticulture specialists, social or community service workers, auto service technicians, electronic service technicians, psychologists, investment analysts, and management consultants[xiv])
l  With the passing of Bill C-6 (dependent children’s age raised to 22, people older than 54 exempt for language and citizenship test, stay in Canada can be 3 in 5 years with prior stay time counted as half[xv]) , it is getting easier and easier to become a Canadian citizen

However, there is a trend for those skilled workers (the writer heard from a skilled worker in demand that only a few couples remained in the province out of 300 in a year) and enterprise immigrants to leave for other provinces (BC, AB or ON) after they have acquired their immigrant status. This may be due to the more and more expenditures as well as the few opportunities for them to utilize their talent or skills.

A noteworhy issue is that both the federal and the provincial government need to realize the population composition is getting more and more diversified, and Saskatchewan needs immigrants which are willing to adapt and integrate into the local community. Whichever the religion is, the government should respect the fact and be just and fair to all new Canadians. About a week ago, within 45 minutes of an Islamic girl’s hijab’s being cut by an Asian boy near a Toronto Scarborough school[xvi], CBC reported and all the top leaders condemned. It was later proved to be a hoax. The girl’s parents need to be responsible for libel and fooling the public, and the leaders and the related media need to quickly correct their previous statements. Martin Luther said one could not realize a beautiful objective with evil measures.

If the rights of Muslims are to be protected, so are those of Christians; if the rights of those from the Middle East are to be protected, so are those from other regions. This untrue event should not be put as an excuse for the passing of M103 as it is biased, unequal and prejudiced.

III.               Reflections on the Problems
If one was to look back, one thing the government did not do was to put money aside when the economy was good for the difficult time. Another thing was that too much focus was on the natural resources like oil and gas and potash, which fluctuate in prices and are not sustainable. As for housing, if government is a stakeholder in the rental market, it should step out of the arbitration for rental disputes. Regulations should be fair and unbiased and easy to administer. For crown companies, they should be kept for public services, and competition can be brought in using public-private partnerships or BOT which require a government standard and price. For the film industry, it was foolish to cancel the tax credit as almost all the other provinces have either a tax credit or grant for the industry. It is not only the money but also the encouragement of the government that counts. To avoid a conflict of interest like Bill Boyd, one needs to have not only very good self-restraint but also a sound checking and overseeing system, which includes rules regarding side occupations, hiring family members or relatives, work after retirement, power regarding management of different areas,  media exposure and public complaint. The idea brought by Meili (the NDP leadership candidate in Saskatchewan) about not accepting individual donations more than $1200 per person and not accepting any corporate donations may be borrowed to ensure a fair accountable government.

IV.               What to Do
There is the Asian saying that “food and fodder go ahead of troops and horses”. Also, in order to have a fair play, rules and regulations are important. A system needs to be established to reward the hard-working and punish the lazy, to discover the gold from the sand and to address an issue from the very beginning. Furthermore, a government should be able to learn from its mistakes and get up from where it slips. Saskatchewan relies heavily on immigrants, yet the government has not taken time and efforts to address their issues such as credential evaluation for skilled workers, matching their skills to vacant positions, assisting small businesses with subsidies and tax reduction. Also, transportation is vital to the economy, and GTH or some similar organization can play a crucial role to link all different cities and towns if the work is not only on paper. Foreign investment is necessary though investors should follow the local guidelines.

V.                 Who Is to Complete the Task
On January 27, 2018, all the Saskatchewan Party members will vote either on site or by mailing the ballot, a new party leader and a new premier. The writer has summed up the present candidates’ platforms as below:

Item 项目
Tina 缇娜
Ken
Alanna     阿兰娜
Scott 斯科特
Gord 戈德
Budget 预算
Extend by 1 year, pay down operating debt
延长一年,减少经营支出债务
Signed the CTF Taxpayer Protection Pledge to balance by 2019, first balance then tackle the debt
与加拿大纳税者联盟签订了2019年收支达到平衡的承诺,先平衡再解决债务问题
Extend by 1 year, use shared services model and back office consolidation
延长一年,运用共享服务模型和后台汇总办公
Committed to balance by 2019 while giving insurance PST exempt status, look to smooth natural resource income
承诺2019年收支平衡,同时保险的省税豁免,寻找自然资源收入平衡增长的办法
Return to balance 2019-2020, try to eliminate operating debt
2019-2020年恢复平衡,努力消除营运支出债务
Heritage Wealth Fund 传承财富基金
Yes
When finance improves
当财政状况改善时
Tackle debt and spending first先解决债务和支出
Balance first
先平衡
Yes, support Peter McKinnon
是,支持彼得麦金农
3.5% Rollback in public sector wages 追溯减少公共部门工资3.5%
Support collective bargaining efforts
支持集体谈判的努力
No, will look to achieve efficiencies through attrition
不,试图通过协商解决,提高效率
No
Respect the collective bargaining process
尊重集体谈判过程
Believe in the collective bargaining process, can balance budget w/o a rollback, should look at other efficiencies
相信集体谈判过程,但是不用追溯减薪来达到收支平衡,应该寻求其他增效途径
Crown corporations 皇家公司
No sell-off generally, would get government out of the liquor retail business, will use crown dividends to pay for dept expenses
一般不卖出,但是政府不应该搞酒业零售,可以用皇家公司的分红支付部门费用
Continue to abide by the Crown Protection Act, use dividends to improve residents’ life
会继续遵守皇家公司保护法,将用有关分红改进居民生活
Keep major ones public but should operate as businesses, use crown dividends to both deliver services and improve infrastructure
保持主要皇家公司公立,但是须公司化运作,可用分红完善基础设施,提供有关服务
No sell-off, crown dividends not to be used to offset shortfalls, but to pay for infrastructure and services
不应售出,分红不应该用作弥补财政亏损,而是用于支付基础设施投资和有关服务
They provide reliable services and  good-value in low-cost utility delivery, will consider sell-off to be focused in government core areas and be more efficient and effective with public consent, use crown dividends to pay for services
皇家公司提供低成本高价值的设施和可信赖的服务,若为专注于政府主要服务领域、更加高效快捷服务可以考虑售出,将用分红支付服务支出
GTH      环球交通枢纽
Examination and inquiry, sell GTH, need to restore public trust and confidence
审查和聆讯,卖出环球交通枢纽,需要重建公众信心和信赖度
Inquiry after RCMP investigation, immediate sell to the private sector
皇家警察调查后聆讯,立即售出环球交通枢纽
A forensic audit, public inquiry is expensive, phenomenal investment for the SK people, not sell as it is important to our economy
需要法务审计,公众聆讯昂贵,是萨省人民的重大投资,对经济关系重大,不能出售
Need disclosure of figures, a public inquiry, can move management, possibly ownership
需要公布有关数字,组织公共聆讯,可以考虑更换管理层,或者所有者
A public inquiry, destiny needs to be reviewed financially and discussed with the residents, should broaden the power of the Conflict of Interest Act
公共聆讯,其取向需要财务审查并与居民讨论后再定,需要扩大利益冲突法的权利范围
View on the Regina Bypass 有关里加纳环城高速路过程是否超支
Scope expanded, and analysis is ongoing
范围扩大了,分析一直在做
Will save $380 m over life
整个工程阶段将节省3.8亿元
Not over budget, further cost analysis unnecessary
没有超支,更进一步的成本分析没有必要
Scope increased, but the construction on time and on budget范围扩大了,但是工程准时完工,没有超支
Because the project scope has gone up, so has the cost
范围扩大了,所以成本也增加了
Health Services Extension into the Private Sector     健康服务延伸到私营部门
Yes
Will look at best practices
将参考有关行业惯例
Yes if they improve services and are fiscally prudent
如果能改善服务并且财政上谨慎是可以的
Make sure they improve patient care
要确保病人护理有改善
More private delivery of diagnostic and auxiliary services
在诊断和辅助服务方面可以增加私人供应
Number of MLA Seats 省议员席位
To be reduced if warranted in terms of population shifts, present seat distribution is equitable 目前的席位安排是公平的,如果人口变化需要可以减少议员数
Up to the Boundary Commission, need to focus on represen-
tation
由边界委员会决定,需要强调代表性
Up to the citizens, need to focus on access and representation-
由公民决定,需要强调准入性和代表性
To be discussed by the Party,  need to focus on access and representation-
由党组织讨论,需要强调准入性和代表性
Up to the Boundary Commission,  need to focus on access on representation
由边界委员会决定,需要强调准入性和代表性
Rural Areas 郊区城镇是否合并
Laissez-faire as amalgation is concerned 让当地部门自由决定
Laissez-faire as amalgation is concerned, im prove rural Internet services
让当地部门自由决定,改进郊县互联网服务
No rural amalgation, keeping governance at local level
不要合并,保持对地方的管理
No forced rural amalgation
不能强迫合并
Supporting shared services, modernize legislation and clarify rights and duties
支持分享服务,实施立法现代化,明晰权利和义务
Impaired Driving
有关醉酒驾驶和大麻问题
Legal age for marijuana 19, seize the car  if current measures don’t make progress, agree to increase marijuana production as a crop if it becomes legal
使用大麻合法年龄应该是19岁,如果目前措施不给力,可以扣押汽车,同意合法后扩大大麻作物的生产
Legal age for marijuana 25, need to monitor the degree, marijuana production left to market
使用大麻合法年龄应该是25岁,需要控制大麻使用度,让市场决定大麻生产
Not seize the car, legal age for marijuana 19, agree to increase marijuana production as a crop if it becomes legal
使用大麻合法年龄应该是19岁,同意合法后扩大大麻作物的生产
Legal age needs to be discussed within the Party, need to monitor the degree, agree to increase marijuana production as a crop if it becomes legal
使用大麻合法年龄应该在党内进行讨论,需要控制大麻使用度,同意合法后扩大大麻作物的生产
Not seize the car, legal age for marijuana 19, need to watch marijuana production though it may be a good opportunity
不扣押汽车,使用大麻合法年龄应该是19岁,需要监控大麻生产,虽然可能是一个好的机会
Abortion
堕胎
Pro-choice
赞同(妇女)选择权
Pro-life, abortion should be restricted to women whose lives are in jeopardy and victims of sexual assault
赞同(小孩)生命权,堕胎应尽量避免,仅限于生命遭到威胁的妇女或被性暴人士
Pro-choice
赞同(妇女)选择权
Pro-life, trust those in medical practice, may support a caucus discussion on parental notifications for youths seeking abortions
赞同(小孩)生命权,相信医疗从业者,可能支持党内组织有关给未成年小孩怀孕父母通知的研讨
Respectful of the Supreme Court decision
尊重最高法院的决定
Needle Exchange Programs   针头交换计划
Yes
Use wrap around services
使用综合服务
Yes, but prefer to prevent or reduce drug use
是的,但是倾向于防止或减少使用毒品
No
Need to examine the safety issue
需要审查有关安全事项
Source: Sask Party Hopefuls Talk, Leader Post, Jan 20, 2018; Murray Mandryk: Leadership Hopefuls Take Step Back on Issues, Saskatoon StarPhoenix, Jan 20, 2018.

Saskatchewan needs a leader who is charismatic, pragmatic, far-sighted and one who can both take after the heritage of Saskatchewan and take measures to tackle the new threats and challenges. Some of the candidates have talked about abiding by Saskatchewan laws and regulations and investing in rural Internet services, and putting the legal age for using marijuana to 25, and others have mentioned kids’ education with integrated solutions to students’ individual needs and reviewing rural landfill management. As for the past, many have suggested reinstating the PST exemption for some items like insurance, child care, children’s clothing, etc. Though it is not sure a population of 1.5 or 2 million is a feasible figure for Saskatchewan, a leader with a vision is necessary, and it is admirable to advocate taking care of all the people and to establish trust and social responsibility. To some extent, it may be good to have a conservative soul, a liberal mind and a heart of NDP, and the Saskatchewan Party leader may borrow some concepts from the NDP leader candidate Meili like upstream thinking and investing in human capital other than land and properties as well as from Trent Wotherspoon on education like reducing the class-size, modernizing the provincial curriculum and building a world-class education system[xvii].

VI.               Implementation
A good implementation plan should include: the immediate and ultimate objectives, the participants, the measures to take, a time schedule and a checklist for different stages.

The proposal of setting up a ministry of international trade is a good one, but ther eare the issues of how to coordinate the new ministry with the present Ministry of Economy, STEP and other institutions as well as the overall supervision and facilitation. Thus the writer proposes the following structure:



VII.            Conclusion
To sum up, Saskatchewan is at a critical moment both in terms of the economy in a changing world and in terms of the change in government. It is hoped that the new government will lead Saskatchewan into an era of take-off to reach a rich, peaceful and healthy society where the old are cared, the young are taught and the sick are attended, and make it a locomotive of Canada again.

                    2018年:萨斯喀彻温省的愿景

I. 对萨斯喀彻温省2017年经济状况的简要回顾
如果使用2016年的数据,则可以看到实际GDP增长为-1%,这是加拿大第二个最低的(亚省的数据是-3.8%)。如果使用20166月至20177月的一年数据,可以看到萨省失业率居第五位(6.6%),但就业增长率位居第三低(-0.2%),而房屋开工增长是第二低(-5.2%,仅次于曼省的-34%)。

萨省 2017年的经济增长在加拿大排名第七,但与中国和印度的主要客户签订新的交付合同以及油价持续上涨的动力可能会有所回升,2018年的增长率可能达到2%,2019年为1.9%,这可能会使萨省成为10个省份中第四强和第二强的经济体。

II. SWOT分析
1.优势和弱势
1)优势
萨斯喀彻温省面积广大,拥有加拿大耕地总面积的近一半,是加拿大作物生产的中心。它被公认为是农业生物技术和生命科学领域的世界领先者,其研究集群包括加拿大光源同步加速器和创新广场研究园区。它也是碳捕获与封存的世界领先者,在提高原油采收率方面拥有专业知识。 2016年除了农业出口144亿美元之外,该省因其丰富的矿产资源和能源(作为第二大产油大省和第三大天然气生产大省),产生高科技产业延伸发展的尖端研究中心,和快速扩张的制造业,而使得世界侧目。在电信方面,穆斯乔已成为加拿大西部第一个完全铺设光纤电缆的城市。同时,萨斯喀彻温省享有最低的个人所得税综合税率,和加拿大制造和加工企业最低的企业所得税税率之一(合格企业的税率低至10%),资源税在加拿大的税率也是最低的。

2)弱势
尽管萨斯喀彻温省曾经领导过加国国民经济并拥有许多良好的机遇,但萨斯喀彻温省在迅速变化和越来越不安全的世界里面临着诸多威胁和挑战。在与包括一些省议员在内的许多当地居民交谈之后,笔者汇总了萨斯喀彻温省需要确立或加强的以下领域:

l  可持续的创收产业
l  平衡的预算
l  保护平民百姓、打击不平等、不公正和遏制不正当竞争的立法
l  一个负责任、具有前瞻性、愿意倾听民众声音和调整政策、并对对未来有着清晰的远 景规划的政府
l  对最好的资产-人力资本的投资
l  经济的综合系统化管理

有些问题是由于有关弱势引起的,它们是:

A.政府赤字
萨斯喀彻温省的申诉专员在2016年非常忙碌。在收到的4,406件投诉中,有3,419件涉及省和市级政府实体及其管辖范围内的问题。这比2015年的投诉增加了近22%,比2014年增长了48%。85%的投诉是关于省级政府部门、机构、皇家公司和医疗机构的。

2017921日,省政府向医学院捐赠了2000万美元,以帮助它保持在认证体系中。而这之前省政府要求萨斯喀彻温大学自己筹措这笔钱。自财政厅长首先概述了政府2017年的支出计划以来,这是一系列预算变化或彻底逆转中的最新一次。这里有一些例子:

图书馆资金恢复:480万元。
低收入人士殡仪服务经费部分恢复:60万元。
减免市政府拨款的封顶:300万元。
取消将社区卫生机构的资金减少10%的计划:150万元。

政府还不得不从20173月份设立的应急基金中拿出相当可观的资金,因为2017年未能实现1.25亿美元的员工赔偿。政府发言人表示,这些改变是在听取公众意见后才作出的。临时反对派领袖尼古拉·萨劳尔(Nicole Sarauer)表示,他们似乎先射击后瞄准,而且她继续说,支出“不应该首先被削减”。

B.房屋
就经济适用房方面而言,据报道,从7月开始,里贾纳房屋署管辖下的一套老年一房一厅公寓现在收取超过700美元的房租,不包水电费。由于房租每年都在因应市场形势而增加,真正的保障性住房已经不复存在。

就市场住房而言,由于萨斯喀彻温省没有房租管制,租金在这里是灵活的。然而,老年人抱怨租金上升太快。例如,在Pioneer Village共享式一房一厅通常每月收费2300元,最近又增加了500元。

一般来说房东负责平常房屋的维护和修膳,特别是墙壁、锅炉和屋顶。但是,如果房东不在,房客不小心对房子产生了损坏,房东是否应该承担一些重大损坏和维修费用?

损坏押金预先扣除以防损坏。但是,由于萨斯喀彻温省租客协会是非常支持租户的,所以房东很少保留押金。在伤口上加盐的是,租客办公室受到社会服务厅的监督,社会服务厅也为低收入人群支付租金。因此,即使房东赢了一个案子,由于政府要为租客付钱,所以政府能不付就不付,损失押金很难留下。

C.皇家公司
沃尔已经提到,政府可以为增强皇家公司实力,增加总部数量,在该省创造就业机会等在达成公私合营协议方面持开放态度。那么,在很大程度上,沃尔对皇家公司功能的说法是正确的。但是,为什么我们要卖掉一些股份呢?为了现金,还是为了战略合作?如果是,怎么操作?笔者建议对讨论公私合营的可能性持一个开放的态度,但也要考虑潜在的后果,并对拟建合作关系进行预测。在这里,我们需要界定商品或服务的性质,还需要解决行政垄断的问题。

SaskTel评论家沃伦·麦考尔说,将超过10%的SaskTel私有化意味着SaskTel将被迫支付联邦所得税,导致在萨斯喀彻温省留下的金额减少。另外,出售SaskTel意味着SaskTel给萨斯喀彻温政府的高额分红的结束。大多数人认为,出售SaskTel的一部分将导致萨斯喀彻温省电信成本的增加。至于STC,张维迎教授曾经说过,桶的短边决定了它的容量,而穷人的位置(而不是富人的位置)是衡量一个经济体的社会发展程度的。 STC是针对低收入、无长途运输工具的人群。取消STC会增加农村的老年人问题,增加卫生治疗成本,加剧城乡交流的困难。至于SaskPower,据说SaskPower的部分工作将外包给Swift Current或肯塔基州的一家美国公司。这可能意味着萨斯喀彻温省的企业收入损失,丧失良性循环带来的机会成本,以及向省外企业支付更多。

D.电影和文化产业
像麦金农这样的批评家指责沃尔2012年取消该省电影税收抵免的决定。世界各地都在竞相提供税收减免来吸引电视和电影的制作。加拿大萨斯喀彻温省的税收减免缓解了一些流行节目诸如《角落的加油站》和《草原上的小清真寺》的一半以上劳动力成本。沃尔并没有感觉到政府收到了足够的回报,取消了这个计划,这引起了业内人士的愤慨,他们声称这个省最终获得的税收比其付出的要多。 Minds Eye Film的著名名的Kevin Dewalt无法继续他的生意,因为他所有的合伙人都已走掉。

E.利益冲突
前萨斯喀彻温经济厅厅长比尔·博伊德(Bill Boyd)于2017815日宣布,他将在91日辞去他的省议员职位。省议员辞职并不重要。但是这次不同的是,几个小时后,CBC网站发表了一份关于他与一家萨斯喀彻温投资公司关系的报告。有过度使用其头衔的问题,也有对土地交易的适当监督的问题。

2.威胁和挑战
根据最近的一些消息,对飞机制造商Bombardier Inc.和包括West Fraser公司和Canfor公司在内的软木生产商以及对钢铁、铝和其他行业的调查都有可能使加拿大成为受到美国最大惩罚的贸易伙伴。加拿大国际贸易部前副首席经济学家说:“我们现在正面临贸易冲击,现实和言语方面。”对加拿大的制裁是一个提醒,即使是自由贸易协定也不能保证自由贸易。此外,在谈判过程中,美国的一个关键要求就是取消第19章,里面谈到的一个机制允许企业质疑其他NAFTA成员国的反倾销和反补贴税决定。

大多数人可能没有意识到的一件事是人才的流失。许多移民希望安顿下来,但是由于一些因素,萨斯喀彻温省的人口净流量如下表所示:

萨省人口省际流动变化
Province of Destination
到达省
2012-2013 (%)
2013-2014 (%)
2014-2015 (%)
2015-2016 (%)
Average of the 4 Years
4年平均
PEI
爱德华王子岛
-14.63
-20
-14.29
88.89
9.99
NS 新斯科舍
-2.13
7.75
-1.21
4.99
2.35
NB
新不伦瑞克
7.76
-14.14
14.67
20.63
7.23
QB 魁北克
-12.63
0
7.51
13.44
2.08
ON 安大略
-15.63
1.26
12.60
23.38
5.40
MB 曼尼托巴
-5.93
7.21
-18.49
62.89
11.42
SK
萨斯喀彻温
-0.66
-18.67
15.57
-5.67
-2.36
AB 阿尔伯塔
-14.98
-0.67
-0.57
-19.24
-8.87
BC 卑诗
-3.23
-2.23
16.63
-27.73
-4.14
YK 育空
47.06
-36
-43.75
277.78
61.27
NT 新界
-21.95
21.95
-18.29
26.87
2.15
NU 努勒维特
11.29
4.35
12.12
-12.16
3.90
National Average平均
-2.14
-4.10
-1.46
37.84
7.54

来源:加拿大统计局CANSIM(数据库)表051-0019 - 按省份或出发地和目的地分类的年度省际移民人数。

对于来自外国的移民,最近有一些积极的消息:
l  企业家移民的EOI积分已降至80201710月入选265人,政府为EE类别和创业类别给予更多的配额,萨省移民提名总配额2018年增加8%
l  萨省技术移民职业列表将维持五年不变
l  需求非常好的技术工人类别,要求更多的具有实践技能的人员(工程师,水管工,电工,屋顶工,农业或园艺专家,社会或社区服务人员,汽车服务技术人员,电子服务技师,心理学家,投资分析师和管理人员顾问等)
l  C-6条例(随同子女年龄提高到22岁,54岁以上的人免除语言和公民考试,入籍加拿大可以是5年内住满3年,以前的停留时间减半计算)的通过,使得成为加拿大公民变得越来越容易

然而,很多技术工人(笔者听到的是,一年中来的300人只有少数几对夫妇留在省内)和企业移民获得移民身份之后前往其他省(卑诗、阿尔伯塔或安大略) )。这可能是由于越来越重的支出负担,以及他们利用自己的才能或技能的机会较少。

一个值得注意的问题是,联邦政府和省政府都需要意识到人口构成越来越多样化,萨斯喀彻温省需要有愿意适应和融入当地社区的移民。 无论宗教是什么,政府都应该尊重事实,对所有新加拿大人公平公正。 大约一周前,在一个多伦多斯嘉宝地区学校附近,一个伊斯兰女孩的头巾被一亚裔男孩所剪一事在45分钟之内由CBC报道,所有的高层领导人都发出谴责。 后来被证明这是是一个骗局。 女孩的父母需要对诽谤罪和造谣罪负责,领导和有关媒体需要尽快纠正以前的言论。 马丁·路德说,人们不可能用邪恶的手段来实现一个美丽的目标。

如果穆斯林的权利应该受到保护,基督徒的权利也应该受到保护; 如果中东人的权利需要得到保护,那么来自其他地区人的权利也需要得到保护。 这个不真实的事件不应该作为通过M103提案的借口,因为它是有不公平、不平等的和有偏见的。

III. 关于问题的思考
如果要回头看看,政府没有做的一件事就是在丰年时把钱储存起来。另外一个问题就是过多注重石油和天然气和钾肥等自然资源,这些资源价格波动且不可持续。至于住房方面,如果政府是租赁市场的利益相关者,则应该从租赁纠纷的仲裁中退出来。法规要公平、公正、易于管理。对皇家公司来说,应该保留公共服务,通过公私合营或BOT来引入竞争,但是政府保留产品质量和服务标准以及价格的制定权。对于电影业来说,取消税收抵免是愚蠢的,因为几乎所有其他省份都有税收抵免或行业补助。重要的不仅是金钱,还有政府的鼓励。至于要避免像比尔·博伊德这样的利益冲突,我们不仅要有很好的自我约束,而且还要有一套完善的检查和监督制度,对包括从事第二职业、雇佣亲属、退休后工作、管理权范围以及媒体曝光和公众投诉等诸多方面完善立法与有关监督体系。新民党党领候选人美利提出的不接受单个人捐款超过1200美元和不接受任何公司捐赠的想法可以借用,这样以确保普罗大众一个公平的负责任的政府。

IV. 该怎么办
亚洲有句话说“兵马未动粮食先行”。而且,为了公平起见,规则和条例是重要的。要建立制度,奖勤罚懒,沙里淘金,对问题防患于未然。此外,政府应该能够从错误中吸取教训,从摔倒的地方爬起来。萨斯喀彻温省很大程度上依赖移民,但是政府没有花时间和精力来解决他们的问题,例如技术人员的资格评估,将他们的技能与空缺职位相匹配,帮助小企业获得补贴和减税。另外,交通对经济至关重要,如果工作不仅仅停留在纸上,环球交通枢纽或类似的组织可以在联通所有城镇方面起到关键作用。尽管投资者应遵循当地的指导方针,但外资仍然是必要的。

V. 谁将作为团队领袖完成任务
2018127日,所有萨斯喀彻温党党员将在现场投票,或通过邮寄投票,选出新的党领导人和新总理。笔者总结了目前参加竞选的候选人有关竞选纲领摘要如下:

Item 项目
Tina 缇娜
Ken
Alanna     阿兰娜
Scott 斯科特
Gord 戈德
Budget 预算
Extend by 1 year, pay down operating debt
延长一年,减少经营支出债务
Signed the CTF Taxpayer Protection Pledge to balance by 2019, first balance then tackle the debt
与加拿大纳税者联盟签订了2019年收支达到平衡的承诺,先平衡再解决债务问题
Extend by 1 year, use shared services model and back office consolidation
延长一年,运用共享服务模型和后台汇总办公
Committed to balance by 2019 while giving insurance PST exempt status, look to smooth natural resource income
承诺2019年收支平衡,同时保险的省税豁免,寻找自然资源收入平衡增长的办法
Return to balance 2019-2020, try to eliminate operating debt
2019-2020年恢复平衡,努力消除营运支出债务
Heritage Wealth Fund 传承财富基金
Yes
When finance improves
当财政状况改善时
Tackle debt and spending first先解决债务和支出
Balance first
先平衡
Yes, support Peter McKinnon
是,支持彼得麦金农
3.5% Rollback in public sector wages 追溯减少公共部门工资3.5%
Support collective bargaining efforts
支持集体谈判的努力
No, will look to achieve efficiencies through attrition
不,试图通过协商解决,提高效率
No
Respect the collective bargaining process
尊重集体谈判过程
Believe in the collective bargaining process, can balance budget w/o a rollback, should look at other efficiencies
相信集体谈判过程,但是不用追溯减薪来达到收支平衡,应该寻求其他增效途径
Crown corporations 皇家公司
No sell-off generally, would get government out of the liquor retail business, will use crown dividends to pay for dept expenses
一般不卖出,但是政府不应该搞酒业零售,可以用皇家公司的分红支付部门费用
Continue to abide by the Crown Protection Act, use dividends to improve residents’ life
会继续遵守皇家公司保护法,将用有关分红改进居民生活
Keep major ones public but should operate as businesses, use crown dividends to both deliver services and improve infrastructure
保持主要皇家公司公立,但是须公司化运作,可用分红完善基础设施,提供有关服务
No sell-off, crown dividends not to be used to offset shortfalls, but to pay for infrastructure and services
不应售出,分红不应该用作弥补财政亏损,而是用于支付基础设施投资和有关服务
They provide reliable services and  good-value in low-cost utility delivery, will consider sell-off to be focused in government core areas and be more efficient and effective with public consent, use crown dividends to pay for services
皇家公司提供低成本高价值的设施和可信赖的服务,若为专注于政府主要服务领域、更加高效快捷服务可以考虑售出,将用分红支付服务支出
GTH      环球交通枢纽
Examination and inquiry, sell GTH, need to restore public trust and confidence
审查和聆讯,卖出环球交通枢纽,需要重建公众信心和信赖度
Inquiry after RCMP investigation, immediate sell to the private sector
皇家警察调查后聆讯,立即售出环球交通枢纽
A forensic audit, public inquiry is expensive, phenomenal investment for the SK people, not sell as it is important to our economy
需要法务审计,公众聆讯昂贵,是萨省人民的重大投资,对经济关系重大,不能出售
Need disclosure of figures, a public inquiry, can move management, possibly ownership
需要公布有关数字,组织公共聆讯,可以考虑更换管理层,或者所有者
A public inquiry, destiny needs to be reviewed financially and discussed with the residents, should broaden the power of the Conflict of Interest Act
公共聆讯,其取向需要财务审查并与居民讨论后再定,需要扩大利益冲突法的权利范围
View on the Regina Bypass 有关里加纳环城高速路过程是否超支
Scope expanded, and analysis is ongoing
范围扩大了,分析一直在做
Will save $380 m over life
整个工程阶段将节省3.8亿元
Not over budget, further cost analysis unnecessary
没有超支,更进一步的成本分析没有必要
Scope increased, but the construction on time and on budget范围扩大了,但是工程准时完工,没有超支
Because the project scope has gone up, so has the cost
范围扩大了,所以成本也增加了
Health Services Extension into the Private Sector     健康服务延伸到私营部门
Yes
Will look at best practices
将参考有关行业惯例
Yes if they improve services and are fiscally prudent
如果能改善服务并且财政上谨慎是可以的
Make sure they improve patient care
要确保病人护理有改善
More private delivery of diagnostic and auxiliary services
在诊断和辅助服务方面可以增加私人供应
Number of MLA Seats 省议员席位
To be reduced if warranted in terms of population shifts, present seat distribution is equitable 目前的席位安排是公平的,如果人口变化需要可以减少议员数
Up to the Boundary Commission, need to focus on represen-
tation
由边界委员会决定,需要强调代表性
Up to the citizens, need to focus on access and representation-
由公民决定,需要强调准入性和代表性
To be discussed by the Party,  need to focus on access and representation-
由党组织讨论,需要强调准入性和代表性
Up to the Boundary Commission,  need to focus on access on representation
由边界委员会决定,需要强调准入性和代表性
Rural Areas 郊区城镇是否合并
Laissez-faire as amalgation is concerned 让当地部门自由决定
Laissez-faire as amalgation is concerned, im prove rural Internet services
让当地部门自由决定,改进郊县互联网服务
No rural amalgation, keeping governance at local level
不要合并,保持对地方的管理
No forced rural amalgation
不能强迫合并
Supporting shared services, modernize legislation and clarify rights and duties
支持分享服务,实施立法现代化,明晰权利和义务
Impaired Driving
有关醉酒驾驶和大麻问题
Legal age for marijuana 19, seize the car  if current measures don’t make progress, agree to increase marijuana production as a crop if it becomes legal
使用大麻合法年龄应该是19岁,如果目前措施不给力,可以扣押汽车,同意合法后扩大大麻作物的生产
Legal age for marijuana 25, need to monitor the degree, marijuana production left to market
使用大麻合法年龄应该是25岁,需要控制大麻使用度,让市场决定大麻生产
Not seize the car, legal age for marijuana 19, agree to increase marijuana production as a crop if it becomes legal
使用大麻合法年龄应该是19岁,同意合法后扩大大麻作物的生产
Legal age needs to be discussed within the Party, need to monitor the degree, agree to increase marijuana production as a crop if it becomes legal
使用大麻合法年龄应该在党内进行讨论,需要控制大麻使用度,同意合法后扩大大麻作物的生产
Not seize the car, legal age for marijuana 19, need to watch marijuana production though it may be a good opportunity
不扣押汽车,使用大麻合法年龄应该是19岁,需要监控大麻生产,虽然可能是一个好的机会
Abortion
堕胎
Pro-choice
赞同(妇女)选择权
Pro-life, abortion should be restricted to women whose lives are in jeopardy and victims of sexual assault
赞同(小孩)生命权,堕胎应尽量避免,仅限于生命遭到威胁的妇女或被性暴人士
Pro-choice
赞同(妇女)选择权
Pro-life, trust those in medical practice, may support a caucus discussion on parental notifications for youths seeking abortions
赞同(小孩)生命权,相信医疗从业者,可能支持党内组织有关给未成年小孩怀孕父母通知的研讨
Respectful of the Supreme Court decision
尊重最高法院的决定
Needle Exchange Programs   针头交换计划
Yes
Use wrap around services
使用综合服务
Yes, but prefer to prevent or reduce drug use
是的,但是倾向于防止或减少使用毒品
No
Need to examine the safety issue
需要审查有关安全事项

资料来源:萨省党未来领导人的谈话,Leader Post2018120日;曼迪克:未来领导人在问题上有所后退,Saskatoon StarPhoenix2018120日。

萨斯喀彻温省需要一个富有魅力、务实、有远见的领导人,他既能承继萨斯喀彻温省的优良传统,也能采取措施应对新的威胁和挑战。一些候选人谈到了遵守萨斯喀彻温省法律法规和投资农村互联网的服务,并把使用大麻的法定年龄设为25岁,另有一些人谈到了孩子们的教育,综合解决学生的个人需求和审查农村垃圾填埋管理制度的事情。针对过去的做法,许多人建议恢复对保险、幼儿看护、儿童服装等一些项目的省销售税豁免。虽然不确定150万或者200万是否是萨斯喀彻温省的一个可行的人口数字,但是一个有愿景的领导人是非常必要的,而倡导照顾全体人民、建立信任和社会责任感是值得赞扬的。在某种程度上,拥有一个保守党的灵魂,一个自由党的智慧和一个新民党的心脏可能是好的,萨斯喀彻温党领导人可以从新民主党领导人候选人梅里那里借用诸如如上游思维和投资人力资本、而不是土地和财产的思想。还有特伦特·万斯普顿(Trent Wotherspoon)在教育工作方面的建议,如减少班级人数、实施省级课程现代化,和建立世界一流的教育体系。

VI. 履行
一个好的实施计划应该包括:直接和最终的目标,参与者,采取的措施,时间表和不同阶段的内容清单。

关于成立国际贸易厅的建议是好的,但是将出现如何协调新的部门与现在的经济厅、贸促会等机构的关系以及实现整体的监督和调控的问题。 因此笔者提出如下结构,委员会由政府部门、商业协会、贸易从业人员和教授以及研究人员组成。



VII. 结论
总而言之,萨斯喀彻温省正处于一个关键时刻,世界和加拿大的环境在变化,萨省政府也要变化。希望新政府能够带领萨斯喀彻温省进入起飞的时代,实现老有所养、幼有所教、病有所依、富足、祥和及安康的社会,再建领军加拿大之辉煌。





[i] Alberta Government: Alberta Economy - Indicators at a Glance, Page 3, Aug. 18, 2017.
[ii] SREDA: Consesssus Forcast Survey, January 8, 2018.
[iii] Government of Saskatchewan: Saskatchewan Agricultural Exports 2016, Page 4, http://publications.gov.sk.ca/documents/20/93964-Saskatchewan%20Agriculture%20Exports%202016.2.pdf.
[iv] The Canadian Trade Commissioner Service: Saskatchewan: Rich in Resources, Rich in Opportunity, please look at the article by clicking the fo0llowing web link http://www.international.gc.ca/investors-investisseurs/cities-villes/west-ouest/saskatchewan.aspx?lang=eng, March 18, 2016.
[v] Feixue Ren: Canada’s Personal Income Tax Rates: Time for Reform, Fraser Institute, https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/canadas-personal-income-tax-rates-time-for-reform.pdf.
[vi] Ombudsman Saskatchewan: Annual Report 2016, Page 5, April 2017.
[vii] Stefani Langenegger: Opposition NDP accuses government of 'shooting first, aiming later' with budget, CBC News, Sept 22, 2017.
[viii] David Baxter: SaskTel minister confirms hes spoken with a communications company about a minority SaskTel sale, Global News, April 28, 2017.
[ix] Weiying Zhang: What kind of country is a really developed country? (in Chinese) http://www.toutiaoabc.com/index.php?app=news&act=view&nid=379822.
[x] Jen Gerson: How good is Saskatchewan’s Brad Wall, really? National Post, April 1, 2016.
[xi] Chris Fournier: Forget NAFTA. America’s trade war with Canada has already started, Financial Post, January 25, 2018, please take time to read the article by clicking the link http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/forget-nafta-the-trade-war-with-canada-has-already-started.
[xii] New Immigration Policy of Saskatchewan of Canada in 2018 (in Chinese), January 17, 2018, please click https://yimin.liuxue86.com/y/3591639.html.
[xiii] 12 Occupations Require No Assessment in the New Skilled Worker Immigrant Category List of 2018 for Saskatchewan of Canada (in Chinese), January 16, 2018, please click the link to read the article http://mp.163.com/v2/article/detail/D88QJ5260516C9NB.html.
[xiv] Immigration Condition for Skilled Workers of Saskatchewan in 2018 (in Chinese), January 3, 2018, https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/32584985.
[xv] Canadian Homeland: New citizenship law enacted: 3 in 5 years stay and seniors at 55 exempt from the English test (in Chinese), October 5, 2017, please take time to read the article by clicking http://www.iask.ca/news/canada/2017/10/454220.html.
[xvi] The First Chinese Big Parade in 2018 in the Eyes of One in the Legal Field, January 20, 2018, http://www.torontonewsnet.com/2018/01/20/yigefalvrenyanzhongde2018niandiyichanghuayidayouxing/.
[xvii] A Vision for Education in Saskatchewan, January 10, 2018, please click the link to read the article http://www.trent4leader.ca/education.