Monday, October 26, 2020

Which Party to Support in SK for the Next 4 Years


I. Introduction

26 Oct 2020 will be another landmark for the history in Saskatchewan as that is the day to decide on the next government. This article will introduce the polls, review the two big parties’ performance, compare their platforms and conclude with some policy suggestions.

 

II. Polls

According to Angus Reid Institute, the Sask Party lead the way on economic questions in the poll conducted on 15 Oct 2020. 86% of people in the poll said the party would be best to lead on resources, and 82% favored the Sask Party on economic growth questions. The NDP ranked better on social issues – 44% of people said the NDP is the best party to lead on health-care issues versus 39% for the Sask Party, and 48% said the NDP would be the best party to lead on the province’s COVID-19 response versus 33% for the Sask Party[i].

 

Actually there are some other polls with all the results as shown below:

338 Canada Oct 19, 2020: Sask: 60.3%; NDP: 34.8%; Other: 2.4%; Green: 2.4%. (https://338canada.com/saskatchewan/)

CBC Oct 15, 2020: Sask: 58.8%; NDP: 34.0%; Other: 5.2%; Green: 2.1%. (https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/saskatchewan/)

Research Co. (Vancouver) Oct 11, 2020: Sask: 58%; NDP: 36%; Other: 4%; Green: 2%. (https://leaderpost.com/news/politics/sask-election/online-only-poll-puts-sask-party-support-26-points-up-on-ndp)

EKOS late August 2020: Sask: 60%; NDP: 28%. (https://leaderpost.com/news/politics/sask-election/online-only-poll-puts-sask-party-support-26-points-up-on-ndp)

Angus Reid Institute 15 Oct 2020: Sask: 60%; NDP: 33%. (http://angusreid.org/saskatchewan-election-2020/)

 

III. Performance of Saskatchewan Party and NDP

Although Saskatchewan Party leads in almost all the polls, NDP says they are to be relied on. Therefore, the past performance of the two parties needs to be examined, and it may be quite interesting to do a comparison[ii].

 

The economy grew faster in an average year under the previous NDP government than in an average year under the Saskatchewan Party, but only by the slimmest of margins. But the background was different. The NDP trailed the rest of Canada, which grew by more than 60 per cent over the same period, or more than three per cent per year. The Sask. Party government beat the national average. There are 3,300 jobs created in an average year of NDP government.

 

Under the NDP’s last stint in government, divisions closed 176 schools. Health regions closed 52 rural hospitals. Enrolment was down due to rural depopulation, and 32 more schools have closed under the Sask. Party even as it builds urban schools. However, Ryan Meili cast the 2020 election as a choice between NDP investment and Saskatchewan Party cuts (referring to the cut in schools, health care and Crowns in 2017), promising smaller classes and more jobs with the NDP government. Meili stood by comments supporting a mandatory mask policy at the polls, one day after he appeared to disagree with Elections Saskatchewan's decision to merely recommend masks without requiring them for voters[iii].

 

It’s a tricky business counting how many surpluses and deficits each party has run, since accounting rules have changed at least twice. But under the current system, the NDP is 11 surpluses for 16 while the Sask. Party is four surpluses for 12. The difference between public debt at the beginning of the term and the one in the most recent year for NDP is a $10.4 billion decrease, and the difference for Saskatchewan Party is a $9.22 billion increase.

 

However, until the pandemic, the Sask. Party’s job record was almost twice as strong, 6500 in an average year. There were just 6,381 more Saskatchewan people after 16 years of NDP government. The Sask. Party racked up far more jobs much more quickly as the population exploded by 171,358 people. The numbers of immigrants vary from 1800 to 2100 from the year 2000 to 2007. However, these numbers vary from 4200 to about 15000 under Saskatchewan Party’s rule, which is much higher[iv].

 

As each party has something to boast of, how should we make a choice? We know an area becomes rich and thriving not because of a rich government but a rich community. Well, a rich community depends on a sustainable economy with a large energetic population. The population figure is not to be relied on as you cannot tell if the province is attracting more people in than pulling people out. Therefore, we can take a look at the net migration data:

 

Year

SK

AB

Canada

Net Number of Immigrants

1991/1992

-8,481

2,983

316,659

1992/1993

-6,348

-1,181

303,294

1993/1994

-5,431

-1,630

289,391

1994/1995

-3,652

-556

285,464

1995/1996

-2,161

7,656

291,764

1996/1997

-2,794

26,282

292,873

1997/1998

-1,940

43,089

309,234

1998/1999

-4,333

25,191

276,930

1999/2000

-7,947

22,674

285,817

2000/2001

-8,410

20,457

269,220

2001/2002

-8,820

26,235

290,490

2002/2003

-5,141

11,903

274,899

2003/2004

-4,521

10,606

261,380

2004/2005

-9,515

34,423

285,544

2005/2006

-7,083

45,795

285,868

2006/2007

1,549

33,809

305,062

Net Number 1991-2007

-85,028

307,736

4,623,889

Source: Tables for migration: interprovincial 2008/2009, Statistics Canada, Demography Division.

 

Interprovincial migration in Saskatchewan


Year

SK

AB

Canada


Net Number of Immigrants


2009/2010

2,153

-3271

183759


2010/2011

545

8,443

212534


2011/2012

1,878

27,652

197644


2012/2013

392

38,598

194647


2013/2014

−1,839

35,382

200971


2014/2015

−4,528

21,594

204198


2015/2016

−4,272

−15,108

174923


2016/2017

−5,760

−15,559

255297


2017/2018

−8,475

−3,247

214080


2018/2019

−9,688

5,542

252750


2019/2020

−12,256

8,400

262310


Net 2009/2020

-41,850

108,426

2,353,113


Source: Statistics Canada, table 051-0012: Interprovincial migrants, by age group and sex, Canada, provinces and territories, annual; https://www.statista.com/
statistics/586457/net-interprovincial-migrants-saskatchewan/





 

It can be seen that the Saskatchewan Party is doing a better job in attracting and retaining migrants though it still needs to learn from Alberta and other provinces of the country.

 

IV. Platforms

Both parties have made some proposals while the Saskatchewan Party focuses more on the economy and finance issues while the NDP focuses on the health and COVID-19 issues:

 


Economy

Health

Education

Social and Environment

Labor

Governance

Sask Party

Reduce taxes for small businesses
as the province emerges from the
coronavirus pandemic, a home renovation tax credit of 10.5 per cent on up to $20,000 of eligible renovations, continue to invest in Saskatoon to ensure the city remains an engine of growth in the province, ensure the province has a strong, growing economy that will support a great quality of life for families

Increase supports for D/deaf
and Deafblind Saskatchewan residents, hiring 300 new continuing care aides, reducing the maximum cost of ambulance calls by 50% and eliminating inter-hospital ambulance costs, more aides for long-term care facilities and home care services, expand the province’s insulin pump program to everyone with Type 1 diabetes, $6 million per year to expand autism funding to more children

Increase the Saskatchewan
Advantage Scholarship by 50%

Increase yearly funding to the
SK veteran service club support to about 15 times the original amount,  restart the community rink affordability grant,  increasing the seniors income plan to a maximum of $360 month, restart the active family benefits ($150-200 per year per child), encourage new childcare spaces with subsidies, reduce SaskPower bills by 10% for one year starting in December


A balanced provincial
budget by 2024

NDP

Bring in a procurement model that
would make putting local people
to work a priority, removing the provincial sales tax on construction labor

Investment in mental health 
and addictions treatment, in surgery and outpatient centres,
hiring 700 more home care staff, improving access to health care in rural areas

Smaller classrooms with a $125
million investment

Gender balanced cabinet, closing gender pay gap, putting an end
to commercial development
in urban parks, a wealth tax of one per cent for those with a net wealth of $15 million, 50 per cent renewable electricity by 2030 and 100 per cent emissions-free electricity by 2050, exploring increasing capacity of geothermal power, lower SGI premiums for drivers by 7% and every driver $100 rebate, and increase child care spaces while keeping the rate at $25 per day, bringing back the Saskatchewan Transportation Company

Minimum wage to $15/hr,
ban high-heel dress codes

Strengthening of conflict of
interest rules for MLAs and
all lobbying to be made public, banning of corporate and union donations to political parties and bring in a cap on contributions, a full public inquiry into GTH

Green Party


Full health benefits to everyone,
 including dental, optical and
mental health coverage, along
with complementary and alternative healing practices





David Giles: Saskatchewan election tracker 2020: Here’s what the parties are promising, Global News, 16 Oct 2010, https://cfox.com/news/7339203/saskatchewan-election-2020-tracker-promises/; Moe to talk economy in Saskatoon, Meili to focus on jobs announcement in Regina, the Canadian Press, 16 Oct 2020, https://www.humboldtjournal.ca/moe-to-talk-economy-in-saskatoon-meili-to-focus-on-jobs-announcement-in-regina-1.24221607; Erin Thorp: Week Three: Saskatchewan General Election 2020, Hill+Knowlton Strategies, 20 Oct 2020, see the site: https://hkstrategies.ca/en/week-three-saskatchewan-general-election-2020/.

 

Some of the notable suggestions by NDP are: improvement of mental health policies, mandatory requirement of mask wearing for public gathering places, encouragement of hiring local workers and contractors, increasing use of green power and strengthening the conflict of interest rules. The Green Party’s suggestion on full benefits is also attractive, but a feasibility study needs to be conducted. For the Saskatchewan Party, the tax reduction for small businesses should be applauded, and emphasis on a healthy sustainable community is nothing but wise.

 

V. Conclusion

A good government should be one well-informed, based on scientific and democratic decision making, accountable and sustainable. No matter which party wins the election, the majority party should still listen to the minority parties and take precautions in big capital decisions. The author believes in a mechanism to get the businesses running efficiently and effectively without too much government intervention except for necessary. Feeding one fish is not as good as teaching one to fish.



[i] Angus Reid Institute: Saskatchewan Election: Voters lean heavily toward re-electing Sask Party, disenchanted by lack of third option, 15 Oct 2020; please take time to read the survey by clicking: http://angusreid.org/saskatchewan-election-2020/.

[ii] Please note that most of the data in the comparison comes from: Arthur White-Crummey: Battle of the records: Which party is better on growth, jobs, cuts and debt? 23 Oct 2020, please take time to view the whole interesting article by clicking the following link: https://leaderpost.com/news/politics/sask-election/battle-of-the-records-which-party-is-better-on-growth-jobs-and-debt.

[iii] Arthur White-Crummey: Meili confident as he campaigns in Regina, Regina Leader-Post, 24 Oct 2020, https://www.pressreader.com/canada/regina-leader-post/20201024/281487868843476.

[iv] Erin Duffin: Number of Recent Immigrants in Saskatchewan  2001-2020, Oct 5, 2020, https://www.statista.com/statistics/609178/number-of-immigrants-in-saskatchewan/.

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