Monday, March 21, 2022

To Fight or Not to Fight: That is the Question (参战还是不参战:这是个问题)

(Picture from Reuters)

As Canada takes the lead to put sanctions on Russia, Canada is feeling the impact directly both due to being put by Russia into a list of “unfriendly” countries and due to rising food and energy prices. Russia's closure of Canada's airspace as a counter measure will affect the return of Asians to their home country or entrepreneurs looking to do business with Asia, since planes from Canada to China, Japan, Hong Kong, and India will all pass through Russian airspace. Refugees from Ukraine will be welcome with few limitations. However, Canada’s trade policy is based on three mutually reinforcing priorities: support for a strong, rules-based multilateral trading system, trade diversification, and inclusive trade, and access to foreign markets is of vital importance to Canada’s continued prosperity. The federal government is now a minority government, yet there are already signs of political and economic instability. Canada should not be involved in the Ukrainian War due to the following reasons. First, based on common sense, no war is a good war as it consumes properties as well as lives, and the best solution is to take immediate measures to end it as if it were a fire. Fanning the fire will hurt both the ones in the fire and around it. Actually, rising electricity and gas prices are threatening to crush the small and medium-sized companies in Germany and many of the 3651 German businesses in Russia and 2000 ones in Ukraine are now facing uncertainty and possible sanctions at best, and crisis situations, with their staff in physical danger, at worst, according to Business & Human Rights Resource Centre. Some may wonder if we can participate in justified wars and fight for freedom and liberty. However, that concept is instilled just for the benefits of some military or oil and gas conglomerates. Secondly, there are at least 1,359,655 persons of full or partial Ukrainian origin and 622,445 Canadians of full or partial Russians ancestry residing in Canada, and efforts to support one race against another will be either foolish or dangerous as you can hardly upgrade one race and downgrade another in a multi-cultural country. Thirdly, Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and the Foreign Enlistment Act actually restricts when people can fight in a war that does not directly involve Canada. It basically bans joining a foreign military to fight for a country Canada considers “friendly.” Moreover, Canada has a long history of trade with both Russia and Ukraine, and participating in the war will no doubt reduce the welfare of Canada. Fourthly, Ukraine has a long history dealing with Russia, and the war has it rich complexities and entanglement, including the far-right extremism and neo-Nazism in Eastern Ukraine. The solution to a rope entangled is not to make it even more entangled. Fifthly, Canada is in a poor economic shape in terms of both Federal debt and household debt as compared to its GDP and household disposable income respectively, and its present situation does not allow it to support the others in a war. Actually, the pandemic and the Ottawa Occupation have deteriorated Canada’s economy. Last but not least, when a polar bear is poked in an eye, the polar bear will hurt whoever at its side or who threatens it. However, this happens many times in conflicts like Iran versus Iraq and India versus Pakistan. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a very complicated political and historical background. It is not wise to sanction against Russia as it is the country that Canada want to trade with in terms of oil and gas with a comparative advantage. Nor is it good for the balance of international political and military power and the regional stability of the Asia-Pacific Region. Furthermore, the sanction is not effective either, as Russia can take its counter-measures which will hurt the Canadian economic welfare. It takes vision, wisdom and tactful diplomacy to deal with the war instead of quickly taking a stand and getting involved in it. As put by an Asian saying, when one looks at the history as a mirror, he will know the rise or fall of a country. Canada needs leaders like Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Pierre Trudeau, and Joseph Jacques Jean Chretien, who can foresee the future and make decisions with a strategic point of view.




随着加拿大率先对俄罗斯实施制裁,加拿大被俄罗斯列入“不友好”国家名单以及食品和能源价格上涨,加拿大直接感受到了影响。因为从加拿大飞往中国、日本、香港和印度的飞机都将经过俄罗斯领空,俄罗斯关闭加拿大领空作为反制措施将影响亚洲人返回本国或希望与亚洲开展业务的企业家。来自乌克兰的难民将几乎没有限制地受到欢迎。然而,加拿大的贸易政策基于三个相辅相成的优先事项:支持强大的、基于规则的多边贸易体系、贸易多元化和包容性贸易,因此海外市场准入对加拿大的持续繁荣至关重要。联邦政府现在是少数派政府,但已经出现了政治和经济不稳定的迹象。由于以下原因,加拿大不应该参与乌克兰战争。首先,根据常识,没有战争是一场好的战争,它消耗的是财产和生命,最好的解决办法是立即采取措施,像对待一场火灾一样结束它。煽风点火会伤害火中以及周围的人。实际上,根据商业与人权资源中心的报告,不断上涨的电力和天然气价格正威胁着德国的中小型企业,在俄罗斯的 3651 家德国企业和乌克兰2000家德企中的多数现在正面临不确定性,可能的制裁以及危机情况,其员工很可能处于危险之中。有些人可能想知道我们是否可以参加正当的战争并为自由而战,然而这个理念的灌输只是为了一些军事或油气集团的利益。其次,至少有 1,359,655 名完全或部分乌克兰血统的人和 622,445 名完全或部分俄罗斯血统的加拿大人居住在加拿大,支持一个种族反对另一个种族的努力要么是愚蠢,要么就是危险的,因为在一个多元文化国家里,你很难提升一个民族,而贬低另外一个。第三,乌克兰不是北约成员国,《外国征兵法》实际上限制了人们何时可以参加不直接涉及加拿大的战争。它基本上禁止加入外国军队为加拿大认为“友好”的国家作战。此外,加拿大与俄罗斯和乌克兰有着悠久的贸易历史,参战无疑会降低加拿大的福利。第四,乌克兰与俄罗斯的关系由来已久,这场战争有其错综复杂和纠缠不清的特点,譬如说乌克兰东部的极右极端主义和新纳粹主义。解决绳索纠缠的方法不是让它更加纠缠。第五,依次相对于国内生产总值和居民可支配收入,加拿大的联邦债务和家庭债务都处于较差的经济状况,目前的情况不允许它在战争中支持其他国家。实际上,大流行和渥太华占领已经恶化了加拿大的经济。最后,但是同样重要的是,当北极熊的眼睛被戳中时,北极熊会伤害身边的任何人或威胁它的人。然而,这种情况在伊朗与伊拉克以及印度与巴基斯坦等的冲突中多次发生。俄乌冲突有着非常复杂的政治和历史背景。 制裁俄罗斯是不明智的,因为它是加拿大在比较优势下希望与之进行石油和天然气贸易的国家。 这也不利于国际政治和军事力量的平衡和亚太地区的稳定。 并且,制裁也是无效的,因为俄罗斯可以采取反制措施,而这将损害加拿大的经济利益。对待战争需要有远见、智慧和巧妙的外交,而不是迅速表态并卷入其中。亚洲国家有句古话,“以史为镜,可以知兴衰”。 加拿大需要像尼克松、卡特、克林顿、老特鲁多和克雷蒂安这样的领导人,他们能够预见未来,并以战略眼光作出决定。 




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